美联储预计将在周三的政策决议中维持基准利率不变。作为下周国会中期选举投票前的最后一次政策会议，当前基准利率仍处于20多年来选举前夕的最高水平之一。美联储官员在上月进行了自2023年以来的首次加息，而美国9月通胀率从8月的3.4%攀升至3.7%，今年多数时间的年化通胀率均在3%以上。分析人士指出，大选临近降低了央行采取激进行动的可能性，决策层选择观望以避免进一步推高家庭信贷成本。

The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave benchmark borrowing costs unchanged on Wednesday in its final policy decision before the US midterm elections, keeping rates at one of the highest pre-election levels in over two decades. Fed officials raised rates last month for the first time since 2023 as inflation climbed from 3.4% in August to 3.7% in September, holding above 3% for most of the year. Economists noted that the proximity of the election makes aggressive policy shifts improbable, giving policymakers breathing room to avoid raising household debt burdens immediately before voting day.

然而，受中东冲突及霍尔木兹海峡关闭影响，国际油价一度触及每桶117美元上方，导致供应链通胀压力加剧。美联储主席凯文·沃什强调央行虽无法控制个别商品价格，但必须遏制物价波动的次生与衍生效应。多数央行经济学家与金融市场交易员预计，美联储在12月政策会议上仍可能再度上调借贷成本。在决议公布前，美国10年期国债收益率升破5.009%，股指期货则在平盘附近震荡。

However, with the Middle East conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushing crude prices briefly above $117 a barrel, supply-side inflation pressures remain intense. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has argued that while the central bank cannot control individual commodity prices, decisive action is necessary to curb second- and third-order effects across the broader economy. Most internal Fed economists and market traders anticipate another rate increase in December. Ahead of the statement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 5.009%, while stock index futures traded flat.

距离11月3日投票日仅剩六天，国会参议院控制权争夺陷入白热化。福克斯新闻权力排名将参院争夺定为平手状态，两党距过半数均差3席；路透社/益普索民调则显示民主党在全国选民支持率上以50%对41%领先9个百分点，同时73%的成年人认为生活成本正朝错误方向发展。前总统唐纳德·特朗普在得克萨斯州集会并宣布将废止拜登时期的油气甲烷排放规则以降低能源开支，而民主党在俄亥俄、得克萨斯与堪萨斯等传统红州发起强烈攻势，两党高层正密集穿梭摇摆选区。

With six days until election day, the fight for the US Senate is locked in a dead heat. Fox News Power Rankings categorize chamber control as a toss-up, with both parties three seats short of a majority, while a Reuters/Ipsos poll places Democrats ahead by nine points nationally even as 73% of adults say the cost of living is heading the wrong way. President Donald Trump rallied in Texas, pitching the termination of Biden-era methane drilling rules to lower energy burdens, while Democrats mounted competitive challenges across traditionally Republican terrain in Ohio, Texas, and Kansas.

周三上午9点刚过，在西班牙马德里以南约140公里的托莱多省乌尔达与洛斯耶贝内斯之间平原地段，一列载有397名乘客的西班牙国营RENFE高铁追尾撞上一列处于停驶状态的私营IRYO高铁（载客约146至147人）。猛烈的碰撞导致至少两节车厢脱轨并翻落路堤斜坡。卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰大区政府与官方通讯社确认，遇难人数已攀升至至少30人，伤亡规模可能还会扩大。

Shortly after 9:00 a.m. on Wednesday, a state-owned RENFE train carrying 397 passengers rammed into the rear of a stationary private IRYO service carrying roughly 146 passengers along a flat rural stretch in Toledo province, roughly 140 kilometers south of Madrid. The violent impact knocked at least two carriages off the track and down an embankment. Regional authorities in Castilla-La Mancha and state media confirmed at least 30 people have died, warning that casualties could climb higher.

西班牙铁路基础设施管理局（ADIF）随即宣布全面中断马德里与安达卢西亚之间的所有高铁服务。当地应急部门调集了多支消防队、三架直升机和移动重症监护单元全力展开搜救，并将乌尔达的一处室内体育馆改造为伤员分流场所。西班牙首相桑切斯对事故表示震惊与慰问，各大政党亦暂停了当天的竞选活动。这是西班牙年内第二起涉及这两家运营商的严重致命铁路事故，事故技术原因仍在调查。

Spanish rail infrastructure manager ADIF halted all high-speed rail services between Madrid and Andalusia following the crash. Emergency agencies deployed fire crews, three rescue helicopters, and mobile intensive care units to extract victims, while nearby Urda opened a sports pavilion to triage survivors. Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez expressed shock and solidarity, and major political parties suspended campaign events ahead of next month's elections. The disaster is Spain's second fatal crash of the year involving RENFE and IRYO, with technical investigations underway.

以色列在完成约70%的议会选举计票后陷入政治僵局。官方数据显示，总理内塔尼亚胡的利库德集团以20.6%得票率领跑单一政党，前军政要员加迪·埃森科特的“雅沙尔”党以15.9%位列第二。然而，内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼及宗教盟友阵营预计仅获得54席，较原先的68席大幅滑落，远低于组阁所需的61席基准；由埃森科特统领的反对派各党预计拿下约65席，但内部在对阿拉伯政党的合作立场上分歧严重。

Official tallies from Israel's general election showed no clear governing majority after counting surpassed the 70% threshold. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud led the party field with 20.6% of votes, ahead of retired military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party at 15.9%. However, Netanyahu's right-wing and religious coalition is projected to secure only 54 seats, down from 68 and well short of the 61-seat threshold. While the broad opposition bloc holds roughly 65 seats, severe internal discord over partnering with Arab factions leaves its path to power blocked.

作为2023年10月7日袭击以来的首次全国投票，本届大选投票率超过77%，推动两大阿拉伯政党有望斩获创纪录的16至19席，成为关键少数。中央选举委员会目前仍在清点多达65万张主要来自前线服役军人的“双信封”缺席选票，最终席位仍有微调空间。若跨党派拉拢与大联合政府谈判无果，以色列政局或再次陷入组阁死结并触发重新大选。

In the nation's first election since the Oct. 7, 2023 attacks, voter turnout exceeded 77%, lifting Arab-led parties toward a record 16 to 19 seats and turning them into potential kingmakers. The Central Elections Committee is currently processing up to 650,000 double-envelope absentee ballots, primarily cast by deployed troops, which could adjust the final margins. If cross-bloc coalition talks or unity proposals fail to resolve the stalemate, the country faces the prospect of dissolving parliament and holding another national election.

在周日巴西总统决选中以逾400万票差距败给现任总统卢拉后，巴西联邦参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗逾期未交护照并携家属离境。阿根廷国家移民局通报证实，博索纳罗一家于周二晚间经由陆路口岸入境阿根廷，随后换乘私人飞机飞往厄瓜多尔瓜亚基尔，航班追踪数据显示对应飞机后续起飞前往美国迈阿密。此前巴西最高法院要求其在周二中午前交出普通及外交护照，并在其逾期后正式注销证件。

After losing Sunday's presidential runoff to incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by over four million votes, Brazilian Senator Flávio Bolsonaro left the country after failing to surrender his passports. Argentina's migration agency confirmed that Bolsonaro, his wife, and two daughters entered via a land border on Tuesday night before boarding a private flight to Guayaquil, Ecuador, with flight-tracking records showing a connecting leg to Miami. The departure followed a Supreme Court directive to hand over his passports amid money-laundering probes, after which authorities cancelled his documents.

美国国务院高级官员随后证实，美方将向博索纳罗及其家人发放签证并准许合法入境。美国总统特朗普公开表示赞同其前往美国，并在未提供证据的情况下质疑巴西大选过程。巴西总统卢拉则指责其出逃离境的行为令人蒙羞。尽管博索纳罗所属的自由党已承认大选结果，但他本人仍呼吁废除选举，使巴西选后的司法问责与政治交接面临新的变数。

A senior US State Department official confirmed that entry visas would be granted to Bolsonaro and his family upon application. US President Donald Trump stated he approved of Bolsonaro coming to the United States while voicing unsubstantiated doubts about Brazil's election. President Lula condemned the departure as shameful. Although Bolsonaro's Liberal Party recognized Lula's victory, the defeated candidate has called to annul the election, injecting fresh uncertainty into post-election judicial and political proceedings in Brazil.

信实工业旗下的数字与电信巨头Jio平台在孟买市场挂牌首日表现强劲，股价较发行价大涨21.5%至每股1360卢比，总市值跃升至12.5万亿卢比（约合1310亿美元），仅次于母公司信实工业，稳居印度全市场市值第二大上市公司。该交易以每股1119卢比公开发售2.7亿股，成功筹集3020亿卢比（约32亿美元），正式创下印度资本市场历史上最大规模的IPO纪录。

Reliance Industries' telecom and digital entity Jio Platforms surged 21.5% to trade at 1,360 rupees on its Mumbai debut, lifting its market valuation to 12.5 trillion rupees ($131 billion). The rally solidified Jio as India's second most valuable listed firm behind its corporate parent. The offering raised 302 billion rupees ($3.2 billion) by issuing 270 million shares at 1,119 rupees apiece, officially marking the largest initial public offering in the history of Indian capital markets.

本次公开发行认购倍数超22倍，其中合格机构投资者认购达70.55倍，计入贝莱德、资本集团及新加坡GIC等基石投资者后总需求高达780亿美元。信实工业仍持有Jio超66%股权，Meta与谷歌分别持股近10%和7.7%。首日的强势表现为近期受地缘冲突扰动的印度股市带来提振，市场正密切关注其未来纳入MSCI及Nifty 50基准指数的前景。

The public issue drew overall demand over 22 times, led by qualified institutional buyers who subscribed 70.55 times their quota, pushing aggregate interest to $78 billion when factoring in anchor investors like BlackRock, Capital Group, and GIC. Reliance retains over 66% ownership, with Meta holding nearly 10% and Google holding 7.7%. The blockbuster listing provided significant relief to domestic equity markets affected by geopolitical tensions, with analysts highlighting its eventual inclusion in MSCI and Nifty 50 indices.

在中东局势持续推高国际能源开支的背景下，多家跨国实体受到直接冲击。由美国公司维拉维住区运营的环球住宅邮轮“奥德赛号”在航行750多天后，因单舱月均燃油成本暴涨至6000至8000美元被迫在柬埔寨西哈努克港暂停运营，勒令203名住客离船并进入60天重组。与此同时，英国财政大臣约翰·希利在其首份预算案中放缓了对银行业的增税步伐，并推翻前任削减现金ISA免税额度的计划，决定保留20000英镑免税上限以维护银行低成本存款池并遏制抵押贷款利率上行。

Elevated international energy expenses and fiscal policy adjustments continue to ripple through the global economy. In Cambodia, the residential cruise ship Villa Vie Odyssey abruptly halted operations in Sihanoukville after more than 750 days at sea, ordering 203 passengers off the vessel after monthly per-cabin fuel costs quadrupled to between $6,000 and $8,000. Meanwhile, UK Chancellor John Healey moderated planned bank tax hikes and scrapped proposals to lower the annual cash Isa tax-free allowance from £20,000 to £12,000, aiming to protect bank deposits and avoid upward pressure on consumer mortgage rates.