以色列大选计票过七成陷僵局 内塔尼亚胡联盟未获过半席位Israeli Election Enters Stalemate as Netanyahu Bloc Falls Short of Majority

随着以色列议会选举官方计票跨过70%关口，各政党力量分布格局逐步清晰。内塔尼亚胡统领的利库德集团目前斩获20.6%的选票，在所有参选政党中保持领跑；退役以军总参谋长加迪·埃森科特建立的“雅沙尔”党则以15.9%的得票率紧随其后。然而，按当前各党得票换算的议席模型显示，内塔尼亚胡统领的极右翼与极端正统派盟友阵营预估总共仅能斩获54个议席，与上一届议会掌握的68席相比明显退步，离单独达成过半数所需的61席基准线仍存在差距。

As official ballot processing passed the 70% threshold on Wednesday, the distribution of power in the Knesset outlined a severe political deadlock. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud led individual party results with 20.6% of the tally, followed by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's newly formed Yashar party at 15.9%. However, legislative projections showed Netanyahu's right-wing and ultra-Orthodox religious bloc commanding only 54 seats, down from its prior 68-seat coalition and well short of the 61-seat parliamentary majority required to establish a government.

反内塔尼亚胡阵营在席位总数上处于领先地位，预计能整合获得约65个议席，但该阵营横跨右翼、中间派、左翼及阿拉伯代表，政治诉求分歧严重。埃森科特在清点初期曾宣布取得进展并寻求“犹太复国主义多数”，而反内塔尼亚胡阵营内部在缺乏阿拉伯政党直接支持的情况下同样无法凑齐执政多数。双方阵营当前均无法跨过议会掌控门槛，使这场大选直接陷入谁都无法单独组阁的政治对峙。

Although the broad anti-Netanyahu opposition is on course to capture roughly 65 seats, deep internal ideological divisions leave it without a straightforward path to power. Eisenkot addressed supporters overnight declaring a mandate for change based on a Zionist majority, yet his disparate opposition partners from the right, center, and left cannot cross the 61-seat governing threshold without cooperation from Arab factions. With neither Netanyahu's nationalist bloc nor the divided opposition possessing sufficient aligned lawmakers to form an outright administration, the contest remains in an intractable parliamentary stalemate.

占以色列约两成人口的阿拉伯裔选民在本次大选中展现出前所未有的投票热情，推动两大阿拉伯政党“共同名单”与“联合阿拉伯名单”（拉阿姆党）走向创纪录的16至19个议席。选民向媒体透露，内塔尼亚胡强硬右翼政府任期内的艰难处境激发了该少数族群的高投票率。由于两大主要犹太阵营均未跨过61席门槛，阿拉伯议员实际掌握了左右政局走向的关键筹码，却同时让反对派阵营陷入剧烈的战略分歧。

Arab Israeli citizens, who represent about 20% of the population, turned out in unprecedented numbers, propelling the two Arab-led factions—the left-wing Joint List and the United Arab List, or Ra'am—toward a record projection of 16 to 19 parliamentary seats. Voters cited hardship under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hard-right administration as the catalyst for the mobilization. Because neither of the main Jewish-led blocs secured the 61 seats needed for a majority, Arab lawmakers find themselves holding the balance of power, sparking sharp strategic disputes across the fractured opposition.

在野阵营内部针对是否吸纳阿拉伯政党爆发公开争端。民主党领袖亚伊尔·戈兰在社交平台发文，呼吁各方停止依据犹太与阿拉伯族裔选票划界，主张反对派承担责任，与阿拉伯公民代表携手组建变革政府。但内塔尼亚胡随即公开驳斥该构想，强调绝不能建立依赖“反犹太复国主义阿拉伯政党”的政府；埃森科特此前也表态坚持谋求“犹太复国主义多数”。由于多数主要政党选前曾承诺不依靠阿拉伯政党执政，反对派若维持选前誓言，便难以凭借现有议席实现政权更迭。

The surge has triggered immediate discord over whether to construct a historic governing partnership. Democrats leader Yair Golan urged opposition allies on social media to reject divisions between Jewish and Arab votes, arguing that the bloc must seize the opportunity to form a government of change in partnership with Arab citizens. Netanyahu immediately countered by warning that relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties would imperil the country, while Eisenkot had previously signaled a preference for a Zionist majority. With leading Jewish opposition factions having pledged on the campaign trail to shun pacts with Arab-majority parties over ideological differences, Eisenkot faces an acute dilemma between reversing that stance or leaving the anti-Netanyahu coalition without a mathematical path to office.

本次选举是2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以及加沙冲突爆发以来，以色列举行的首场议会大选。官方统计显示，全国投票率超过77%，创下20多年来的最高纪录，成千上万身处海外的公民专程搭机回国投票。然而，初步统计尚未决定最终胜负，中央选举委员会正在处理规模创历史新高的“双信封”缺席选票，最终议席分布仍可能发生微调。

The parliamentary vote represents Israel's first national election since the Oct. 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. Official election figures recorded nationwide turnout exceeding 77%, the highest level in over two decades, drawing tens of thousands of expatriates who flew back to the country specifically to cast their ballots. Despite the heavy participation, the initial count does not settle the parliamentary makeup, as election authorities process an unprecedented volume of uncounted double-envelope absentee ballots that could tilt the margins.

以色列普通选民的选票在投票站关闭时即行开箱清点，但服役军人、预备役人员、囚犯、住院患者与医护以及外交官等群体采用“双信封”制度。选民将不记名选票放入内层信封，再装入印有个人身份信息的外部信封。中央选举委员会需核对外部信封，确认选民未在原籍投票站重复投票后，方能拆封清点内部选票。选举委员会预计本届双信封数量多达65万张，高于2022年大选的46万张，主要源于大量驻扎部署的预备役军人，全部清点完毕预计需要数天时间。

Under Israel's electoral procedure, regular ballots are tallied at local precincts immediately after polls close, while deployed soldiers, reservists, hospital patients, medical staff, prisoners, and diplomats abroad vote using double envelopes. These voters seal an anonymous ballot in an inner envelope, which is placed inside an outer envelope bearing their identifying information. The Central Elections Committee must inspect each outer envelope to verify that the individual did not cast a second ballot at their designated home station before opening the inner ballots. The committee expects up to 650,000 double-envelope ballots—up from 460,000 in the 2022 election—driven largely by deployed military reservists, a verification process officials caution could take several days to conclude.

在两大阵营均未跨越61席绝对多数的局面下，以色列政局的下一阶段将聚焦于复杂的跨党派拉拢与组阁博弈。对于内塔尼亚胡而言，现有右翼与宗教联盟的议席不足以直接支撑新内阁，若要继续执政，利库德集团必须设法劝说至少一个来自反对派阵营的较小政党跨界投靠，从而填补席位缺口。然而，反对派各党在选前普遍建立起反内塔尼亚胡立场，要打破这一政治壁垒需要付出极高的政治妥协或部门要职承诺。

With neither major parliamentary bloc holding the 61-seat threshold required to rule independently, Israel's immediate political future pivots to intricate cross-bloc maneuvering and coalition bargaining. For Benjamin Netanyahu, securing another term in office hinges on whether his Likud party can persuade one or more smaller factions from the disparate opposition to break ranks and join his nationalist and religious coalition. However, coaxing defectors across the aisle remains a steep task after intense campaign promises from rival leaders determined to unseat his administration.

如果埃森科特阵营坚持排除阿拉伯政党，同时内塔尼亚胡无法拉拢小党，各派将面临旷日持久的谈判僵局。政治分析指出，各党派要么探讨建立某种形式的“大联合政府”以打破死结，要么任由数周的讨价还价陷入瘫痪。若最终没有任何领袖能够在法定期限内成功拼凑出过半数内阁，这个深陷分歧的国家将再次触发法定机制，直接走向新一轮议会大选。

Should Gadi Eisenkot and his allies maintain their reluctance to rely on Arab factions while Netanyahu fails to peel away opposition defectors, the country faces weeks of deadlock. Analysts note that lawmakers could explore the possibility of a national unity government to avoid paralysis, or extend tough negotiations until statutory deadlines expire. In the event that no political leader can assemble an absolute majority on the Knesset floor, Israel faces the realistic prospect of dissolving parliament and heading toward another general election.