美中期选举冲刺倒计时 参院争夺战两党势均力敌US Midterm Campaign Enters Final Stretch as Senate Battle Stands at Deadlock

在10月22日至26日进行的路透社/益普索民调中，未计入倾向时民主党以47%对36%领先共和党11个百分点。尽管特朗普的执政支持率微升1个百分点至32%，但全美选民对经济压力的关切依然显著。共和党目前在参议院握有53对47席的微弱多数，但在副总统JD·万斯拥有打破僵局关键一票的制度安排下，共和党必须守住至少50席才能维持掌控权。

The Reuters/Ipsos survey conducted between October 22 and October 26 found that prior to factoring in undecided voters' leanings, Democrats led Republicans 47% to 36%. While President Trump's approval rating ticked up by a single percentage point to 32%, voter anxiety over economic conditions remains pronounced across the country. Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the upper chamber. Under the constitutional mechanism where Republican Vice President JD Vance holds the tie-breaking vote, the GOP must retain at least 50 seats to maintain control of the Senate.

福克斯新闻权力排名的预测模型显示，如果民主党赢得绝大多数甚至全部竞争性选区，其席位上限有望达到53席；而若共和党在选举夜顶住压力并打破历史惯例，则最多可保住52席。该评估指出，执政党在中期选举年通常面临议席流失的历史规律，加之持续通胀以及民调显示的伊朗战争争议，使共和党在捍卫国会控制权上面临严峻考验。

According to the Fox News Power Rankings forecast, Democrats could secure as many as 53 seats if they capture most or all competitive races across the country. Conversely, if Republicans outperform expectations and withstand historical midterm headwinds, the GOP's potential ceiling stands at 52 seats. The assessment notes that the governing party historically sheds congressional seats during midterm cycles, leaving Republicans to navigate persistent inflation and public dissatisfaction over the war with Iran as they defend their slim majority.

福克斯新闻权力排名的最终评估显示，民主党重夺参议院多数席位的路径主要穿过特朗普在2024年胜选的腹地。在俄亥俄州，前民主党籍联邦参议员谢罗德·布朗向共和党任命的联邦参议员乔恩·赫斯特德发起挑战，争夺副总统万斯遗留的最后两年任期，该州评级已从势均力敌调整为倾向民主党。在传统共和党票仓南卡罗来纳州，儿科医生、民主党候选人安妮·安德鲁斯正在挑战已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的胞妹、被任命为参议员的达琳·格雷厄姆，其评级由很可能归属共和党降为倾向共和党。在两年前特朗普以33个百分点大胜的密西西比州，共和党籍参议员辛迪·海德-史密斯面临民主党地方检察官斯科特·科洛姆的竞争，评级从稳固归属共和党滑落至很可能归属共和党。

The final Fox News Power Rankings show that the Democratic Party's path toward regaining a Senate majority runs directly through states won by President Donald Trump in 2024. In Ohio, former longtime Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed Republican Senator Jon Husted to complete the final two years of the Senate term previously held by Vice President JD Vance; the contest shifted from a toss-up to Lean Democrat. In South Carolina, pediatrician and Democratic challenger Annie Andrews is facing appointed Republican Senator Darlene Graham following the unexpected death in July of her older brother, longtime Senator Lindsey Graham, shifting the state from Likely Republican to Lean Republican. In Mississippi, where Trump won by 33 points two years ago, Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde-Smith faces Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom, causing the rating to move from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

堪萨斯州则成为全美关注的另一处焦点。该州自1932年以来从未选举过民主党籍联邦参议员，但在最终评级中仍被列为倾向共和党。共和党现任联邦参议员罗杰·马歇尔正面临民主党籍牧师亚当·汉密尔顿的严峻挑战。美联社统计显示，两党及其盟友团体已在该州参议院竞选广告中投入约7100万美元，使其成为堪萨斯州历史上耗资最昂贵的参议院选战，并吸引了特朗普与副总统万斯先后前往该州站台。

Kansas has emerged as another fiercely contested red-state battleground. Although the state has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, incumbent Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces a difficult reelection campaign against Democratic pastor Adam Hamilton in a race currently rated Lean Republican. According to figures compiled by The Associated Press, both political parties and their allied outside groups have committed approximately $71 million to campaign advertising, making it the most expensive Senate race in Kansas history and prompting visits from both President Trump and Vice President Vance.

在得克萨斯州，民主党自1988年以来从未赢得过联邦参议院席位，全州范围选举也已有超过30年未曾落败。然而民调显示，民主党候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里科与共和党籍得州总检察长肯·帕克斯顿目前处于实质上的胶着对决。福克斯新闻权力排名已将得州参议院选情归类为势均力敌。尽管得州当地早期投票数据显示共和党选民参与数量多于民主党，但塔拉里科积极争取对特朗普不满的温和派与共和党选民支持。特朗普在七周内四次造访得州，频次达到其2024年大选同期两倍，并计划在得州活动后前往俄亥俄州继续造势。

In Texas, where Democrats have not won a US Senate seat since 1988 and Republicans are fighting to prevent their first statewide loss in over 30 years, polling shows Democratic challenger James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton locked in a virtual tie. The contest is rated a toss-up by the Fox News Power Rankings. Local early-voting returns indicate higher turnout among registered Republicans than Democrats, yet Talarico has actively campaigned for votes among Republicans dissatisfied with Donald Trump. Highlighting GOP defensive efforts in the state, Trump has made four visits to Texas within seven weeks—double his travel cadence during the equivalent period before the 2024 presidential election—ahead of a scheduled stop in Ohio.

特朗普周二在沿海城市科珀斯克里斯蒂和拉伯克举行两场集会，除为帕克斯顿助选外，还为争取连任的南得州联邦众议员莫妮卡·德·拉·克鲁兹等党内候选人站台。在科珀斯克里斯蒂，特朗普指向一艘载有一百万桶委内瑞拉石油的油轮，将其称为本届政府的政绩，并提出将委内瑞拉设为美国第51个州的设想。此前其政府在抓捕委内瑞拉前总统尼古拉斯·马杜罗后，与该国临时领导人德尔西·罗德里格斯签署了石油协议。与此同时，前总统奥巴马与前副总统哈里斯也在佐治亚州开展集会巡回，为民主党在南方的关键席位进行最后冲刺。

During twin rallies on Tuesday in Corpus Christi and Lubbock, Trump campaigned for Paxton as well as House candidates including South Texas Representative Monica De La Cruz. Speaking in Corpus Christi, Trump pointed toward an oil tanker carrying one million barrels of Venezuelan crude, characterizing the shipment as a policy triumph for his administration while suggesting the idea of making Venezuela the 51st US state. The Trump administration previously reached an oil agreement with Venezuelan interim leader Delcy Rodriguez after the capture of socialist President Nicolas Maduro. Elsewhere on the trail, former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris campaigned across Georgia to bolster Democratic candidates in the final stretch.

在地方层面的竞选阵线中，跨党派背书与选民重组现象受到关注。在阿拉斯加州，经常反对特朗普与共和党主流路线的共和党籍联邦参议员丽莎·穆尔科斯基周二公开支持民主党籍州长候选人乔纳森·克赖斯-汤普金斯（JKT）。阿拉斯加州在11月3日的州长选举中实行排序选票制，克赖斯-汤普金斯面临三位共和党候选人的竞争。现任共和党籍州长迈克·邓利维因任期限制无法寻求连任。穆尔科斯基接受当地电视台采访时指出，邓利维政府在承接联邦资金方面存在过失，未能将争取到的联邦资源有效引入该州，而克赖斯-汤普金斯展现出了与州议会协作的能力。克赖斯-汤普金斯随后发表声明，对获得穆尔科斯基的支持表示荣幸。

Cross-party endorsements and voter realignments have surfaced in state-level contests as voters cast their ballots. In Alaska, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski, who has frequently broken ranks with President Donald Trump and GOP leadership, announced her endorsement on Tuesday for Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, widely known as JKT. Alaska utilizes a ranked-choice voting system for its November 3 election, where Kreiss-Tomkins is opposed by three Republican candidates to succeed term-limited Republican Governor Mike Dunleavy. Murkowski stated to local television that the Dunleavy administration failed to capture available federal funds and resources brought from Washington, adding that Kreiss-Tomkins possesses the perspective to work across the state legislature. Kreiss-Tomkins subsequently released a statement expressing gratitude for Murkowski's cross-party backing.

除了阿拉斯加州长选情外，福克斯新闻权力排名将阿拉斯加州现任共和党联邦参议员丹·苏利文迎战前民主党众议员玛丽·佩尔托拉的席位列为势均力敌。与此同时，各关键州的选民偏好分流在提前投票阶段逐步显现。在密歇根州参议院选战中，民主党人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德与共和党人迈克·罗杰斯展开激烈竞争，当地有原本长期支持共和党的选民转向独立身份，公开表示支持埃尔-赛义德，投票取向不再局限于党派标签。在早期投票参与规模较大的得克萨斯州，虽然登记共和党人的投票人数领先，但民主党阵营同样在积极争取对特朗普持保留态度的传统共和党选民。

The intraparty split in Alaska coincides with a contested federal landscape where the Fox News Power Rankings rate Republican Senator Dan Sullivan's reelection fight against former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola as a toss-up. In addition, changing allegiances among individual voters are emerging across other contested states. In Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed faces Republican Mike Rogers in a close Senate contest, former lifelong Republican voters have reported shifting to independent status to back the Democratic nominee based on candidate qualifications rather than party affiliation. Similar realignment efforts are underway in Texas, where Democratic challenger James Talarico has sought support from anti-Trump conservatives despite higher early-voting turnout totals among registered Republicans.