美常驻联合国代表称对伊战事或持续一年 沙特提升管道运力保原油外运US Envoy Projects Iran War Could Last Another Year as Saudi Aramco Triples Bypass Pipeline

迈克·沃尔茨在接受采访时披露，华盛顿此前曾预估对伊战事仅持续四至五周，但目前美方已做好冲突再持续12个月的准备。他明确表示，美国的核心作战目标与伊朗核能力深度绑定，在德黑兰彻底处置其高浓缩铀库存、并就国内浓缩铀项目达成具有约束力的协议之前，美军不会结束军事行动。尽管美方表达了通过谈判解决的意愿，但美军现阶段已做好长期作战准备。

In his interview with the Financial Times, Mike Waltz revealed that the United States is prepared for fighting to continue 12 months from now, contrasting with President Donald Trump's initial projections that the military campaign against Iran would last only four to five weeks. Waltz emphasized that Washington will not consider its primary strategic objectives fulfilled until Iran disposes of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium and formally accepts what the administration describes as a meaningful agreement governing its domestic enrichment activities.

沃尔茨进一步说明，美国海军具备在可预见的未来持续封锁伊朗主要港口的能力，同时白宫正在收紧针对德黑兰的经济施压措施。在外交层面，美方坚称不会依据未经证实的假设行动，但希望伊朗能够在此之前采取切实举措重回谈判桌。此外，伴随美国期中选举临近，美方与以色列已把新一轮军事打击计划提上日程，持续压制伊朗的战略空间。

Waltz affirmed that the U.S. Navy maintains the operational capability to sustain its maritime blockade of Iranian commercial and naval ports for the foreseeable future, while Washington continues tightening its broader campaign of economic pressure against Tehran. While noting that he would not engage in hypotheticals and expressing hope that Iranian officials might return to the negotiating table before another year elapses, Waltz outlined an unyielding stance reinforced by planned joint strike options with Israel following the November midterm elections.

英法德E3集团与土耳其、沙特、巴基斯坦、埃及组成的R4集团外长于周五在伊斯坦布尔举行多边会谈。土耳其外交部消息人士向法新社透露，此次跨区域会晤除了商讨巴以危机和俄乌战争的停火途径，重点聚焦也门局势演变以及霍尔木兹海峡的通航安全。各方试图通过多边协调，缓解中东关键海运通道所承受的军事与物流压力。

Foreign ministers from the European E3 group—Britain, France, and Germany—met with counterparts from the newly formed R4 bloc, comprising Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Egypt, for multilateral discussions in Istanbul on Friday. A Turkish foreign ministry source informed AFP that the cross-regional agenda focused on developments in Yemen, navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, and potential paths to resolve the war between Russia and Ukraine, seeking coordinated measures across vital waterways.

英国外交大臣埃德·米利班德办公室表示，会谈核心围绕霍尔木兹海峡航运及沙特安全展开。英方评估指出，尽管美方及区域伙伴取得进展，但该海峡通行仍受威胁，船运流量已大幅低于战前水平。米利班德主张通过外交方案恢复航行自由，并警示伊朗策略已在区域蔓延，针对沙特的袭击正在波及曼德海峡与苏伊士运河。为强化防务，英国本周已派出皇家空军台风战机进驻沙特领空拦截胡塞武装袭击。

British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband's office stated that consultations centered on maritime passage in the Strait of Hormuz and stability in Saudi Arabia. According to a UK foreign ministry statement, vessel traffic through the strait remains far below pre-war levels despite stabilization efforts by Washington and regional partners. Miliband advocated for a diplomatic resolution restoring full navigational freedoms, cautioning that tactical attacks against Saudi territory endanger wider global maritime chokepoints, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal. To counter these cross-border threats, the UK deployed Royal Air Force Typhoon fighters this week to defend Saudi airspace against Houthi strikes.

沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司总裁兼首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔在接受沙特阿拉伯商业电视台采访时透露，面对也门胡塞武装数周以来的持续袭击，沙特阿美已将绕开霍尔木兹海峡的东西输油管道日运送能力由200万桶大幅提升至700万桶，增幅超过两倍。这条建于20世纪80年代初期的陆上主干道将原油从波斯湾沿岸的东部油田及生产设施运往红海沿岸的延布原油码头，使沙特在海峡受阻期间能够继续向国际市场装船外运。

Saudi Aramco President and Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser said in an interview with Saudi-owned television network Al Arabiya Business that the volume of crude moving through the kingdom's East-West pipeline has surged from 2 million to 7 million barrels per day. The more than threefold expansion of the bypass route, which was constructed in the early 1980s, provides critical export flexibility away from the congested Strait of Hormuz by transporting oil from fields and production facilities on the Persian Gulf to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea coast.

尽管红海方向拥有出海通道，但胡塞武装已誓言切断沙特经由红海南部门户曼德海峡的航运，并持续向陆上基础设施发起打击。纳赛尔证实，胡塞武装的袭击波及了东西输油管道的关键站点，沙特阿美已部署无人机评估基础设施的受损情况，并利用无人机协助展开灭火作业，以保障该替代外运通道的运转。

The bypass strategy faces mounting logistical pressure as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants carry out recurring strikes against maritime and onshore energy installations, having pledged to halt Saudi crude transiting the southern gateway of the Red Sea at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Nasser confirmed that Houthi attacks have hit sites essential to the East-West pipeline, prompting Saudi Aramco to deploy specialized drones to evaluate structural damage to key infrastructure and assist emergency crews with firefighting operations.

国际原油基准布伦特原油价格周四早间触及每桶112美元，创下5月18日以来的最高价位。伴随油价攀升，特朗普总统周四指责伊朗虚构霍尔木兹海峡的油轮遇袭事件，旨在推高全球能源价格。特朗普在社交平台“真实社交”上发文声称，伊朗正在想方设法在11月3日美国期中选举前推高油价，甚至捏造遇袭和水雷事件，并强调目前通过霍尔木兹海峡的原油运量甚至超过了战事爆发前的水平。

International oil benchmark Brent crude climbed to $112 per barrel on Thursday morning, marking its highest price level since May 18. The price surge prompted immediate reaction from Washington, where President Donald Trump accused Iran of fabricating reports of tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz to inflate global energy markets ahead of the upcoming U.S. midterm elections. Trump asserted on Truth Social that Tehran was making up fake hits and naval mines to elevate fuel costs, maintaining that crude oil volumes moving through the strategic waterway are currently higher than levels observed prior to the conflict.

德黑兰方面则对海峡及其周边水域给出了针锋相对的通报。伊朗声称，其在周四打击了四艘在波斯湾航行的船舶，并指责这些船只在穿越霍尔木兹海峡时使用了德黑兰所拒绝的美国认可航线。此外，伊朗还声称另有三艘走同一航线的船只在该海域触雷，使得围绕关键能源海运通道真实通行状况的博弈迅速升级。

Iranian authorities offered a starkly conflicting narrative regarding conditions across the vital shipping lane. Tehran claimed that its forces struck four vessels in the Persian Gulf on Thursday after the ships navigated the Strait of Hormuz along a maritime transit route endorsed by the United States that Iran rejects. Iranian officials also claimed that three additional commercial vessels in the area struck naval mines after adhering to the same route, escalating the confrontation over actual navigation rights and safety in regional waters.