瑞士将举行全民公投决定是否将人口上限设定为1000万Swiss Voters to Decide on Capping Population at 10 Million

瑞士将于2026年6月14日举行全民公投，其中一项核心议题是由右翼的瑞士人民党（SVP）提出的“不向1000万妥协”倡议。该倡议旨在通过法律手段控制未来移民，确保瑞士的常住人口在2050年以后不超过1000万人。根据瑞士的直接民主制度，任何“公民倡议”只要在18个月内获得10万个签名支持，即可付诸全民公投。这也是瑞士人民党长期以来应对移民问题的重要政治工具。

On June 14, 2026, Swiss voters will head to the polls to decide on the "No to 10 million" initiative, a proposal put forward by the right-wing Swiss People's Party (SVP) to curb future immigration. The initiative seeks to legally mandate that Switzerland's permanent population must not exceed 10 million after the year 2050. Under the country's system of direct democracy, any "popular initiative" that gathers 100,000 signatures within an 18-month window must be put to a national referendum, a mechanism frequently utilized by the anti-immigration SVP.

瑞士人民党将该提案描述为一项“可持续性倡议”，声称其目的是缓解人口增长给住房、公共服务和自然环境带来的压力。然而，这并不是该党首次尝试限制人口，其在12年前曾提出过一项类似的限制移民倡议，但最终未能获得选民通过。在周日的公投中，选民还将同时对《公民服务法》修正案进行投票，以决定是否减少从军队转服民役的人数。

The SVP has framed the proposal as a "sustainability initiative" designed to alleviate growing pressure on housing, public services, and the environment. This vote marks the party's latest attempt to cap population growth, following a similar initiative that failed 12 years ago. Alongside the population cap, voters on Sunday will also cast ballots on the Civilian Service Act, deciding whether to reduce the number of individuals transitioning from military service to civilian service.

根据瑞士人民党提出的倡议，该提案设定了明确的分阶段限制机制。如果瑞士常住人口在2050年之前达到950万人，瑞士联邦政府和议会将必须采取应对措施，对家庭团聚、居留许可的发放以及庇护申请实施限制。这些预防性措施旨在通过收紧移民政策，减缓人口向1000万上限逼近的速度。

Under the specific mechanism outlined in the SVP's proposal, a multi-stage trigger system would be established to control population growth. If Switzerland's permanent population reaches 9.5 million before the year 2050, the federal government and parliament would be required to implement restrictive measures. These curbs would include enacting limitations on family reunification, the issuance of residency permits, and the granting of asylum.

如果上述限制措施未能阻止人口增长，且瑞士人口在2050年之前依然突破了1000万大关，该倡议将要求瑞士政府采取下一步行动。届时，瑞士必须退出与欧盟签署的人员自由流动协议。由于该协议是瑞士与欧盟双边关系的核心支柱之一，退出该协议将直接导致瑞士失去进入欧盟单一市场的渠道。

Should these initial restrictions fail to halt growth and the population still exceeds the 10 million threshold before 2050, the initiative obliges the Swiss government to take a much more drastic step. In this scenario, Switzerland would be forced to pull out of its free movement agreement with the European Union. Terminating this agreement would automatically end Switzerland's access to the EU's single market, altering its relationship with its largest trading partner.

自2002年瑞士与欧盟的人员自由流动协议生效以来，瑞士的人口增长速度明显快于周边欧盟国家。在2002年，瑞士的人口仅为730万人，而到了2025年底，这一数字已迅速攀升至910万人以上，增幅高达24.6%。根据官方数据，截至2024年底，瑞士41%的人口具有移民背景，其中包括移民及其在瑞士出生的子女，且有32.5%的常住居民为第一代移民。目前，约有140万欧盟公民在瑞士生活，占总人口的16%，另有约34万欧盟公民每日跨境来到瑞士工作。

Since the free movement agreement with the European Union came into effect in 2002, Switzerland's population has grown far faster than those of neighboring EU states. The country's population stood at 7.3 million in 2002, but rapid growth pushed that figure to over 9.1 million by the end of 2025, representing an increase of approximately 24.6%. Official data from the end of 2024 reveals that 41% of the population had a migration background, which includes immigrants and their Swiss-born children, while 32.5% of permanent residents were first-generation immigrants. Currently, an estimated 1.4 million EU citizens reside in Switzerland, making up about 16% of the population, and another 340,000 cross the border daily to work.

伴随着人口的快速扩张，瑞士选民对社会基础设施和生活质量的担忧也日益加剧。许多选民对火车车厢拥挤、公寓租金昂贵以及医疗成本不断上升等日常问题感到忧虑。尽管在此期间瑞士的经济产出也增长了约24%，且低税收政策吸引了雀巢、诺华等跨国巨头以及大量亿万富翁，但人口增长带来的社会压力已成为此次公投中选民关注的核心议题。

This rapid demographic expansion has fueled significant societal concerns among Swiss voters regarding infrastructure and living standards. Many citizens are increasingly worried about everyday challenges, including overcrowded trains, expensive apartments, and rising healthcare costs. Although Switzerland's economic output grew by about 24% over the same period, and its low-tax environment continues to attract multinational giants like Nestle and Novartis alongside a high concentration of billionaires, the strain on public services and housing remains a central issue for the electorate.

面对瑞士人民党提出的这项人口上限倡议，瑞士政府、其他所有主要政党、商业领袖以及工会均表示了强烈的反对，并一致将该提案称为“混乱倡议”。反对者警告称，限制移民将对瑞士的经济竞争力造成损害。基尔世界经济研究所的学者托比亚斯·海德兰指出，一旦该倡议获得通过，瑞士商业界和整个社会将面临广泛的不满，因为许多高素质的人才可能会因此放弃移民瑞士，从而导致“阻碍了错误的人群”。

The Swiss government, all other major political parties, business leaders, and trade unions have strongly opposed the population cap proposal, collectively labeling it a "chaos initiative." Opponents warn that restricting immigration would damage Switzerland's economic competitiveness. Tobias Heidland from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy noted that if the initiative passes, a struggle would arise over what kind of immigration to allow, leading to widespread dissatisfaction as many highly qualified people would decide against migrating to Switzerland, effectively deterring the wrong individuals.

此外，反对阵营强调，严格的人口控制将直接导致瑞士关键行业面临劳动力短缺。他们警告称，医院和酒店等行业将无法获得急需的员工。同时，该提案还将损害瑞士与欧盟之间建立的关系。在当前充满风险的国际环境下，退出人员自由流动协议不仅会使瑞士失去欧盟单一市场的准入权，还会让这个非欧盟成员国陷入孤立状态。

Furthermore, opponents warn that limiting immigration would deprive essential sectors, such as hospitals and hotels, of much-needed staff. They also argue that the measure would damage Switzerland's relations with the European Union. By forcing a withdrawal from the free movement agreement and ending access to the single market, the initiative would leave the non-EU nation isolated in a highly risky global environment.

随着6月14日公投日的临近，最新的民意调查结果显示，选民对这项人口上限提案的分歧依然明显。在最近的一项民意调查中，52%的受访者表示将拒绝该提案，而45%的受访者则表示赞成。尽管反对比例略占优势，但由于双方差距较小，舆论普遍认为此次公投的选情非常胶着，最终结果仍存在不确定性。

As the June 14 referendum approaches, the latest opinion polling indicates a highly competitive and closely watched contest. A recent poll revealed that 52% of respondents intend to reject the proposed population cap, while 45% of those surveyed expressed support for the initiative. Although the opposition holds a slight lead, the narrow margin suggests that the final outcome remains highly uncertain and the vote could be very close.

在周日的公投中，瑞士选民除了对这项备受关注的1000万人口上限倡议进行表决外，还将同时对《公民服务法》修正案进行投票。该修正案旨在让选民决定是否应当减少从军队转服民役的人数。这两项公投的结果都将在本周末揭晓，届时将为瑞士未来的移民政策、劳动力结构以及国防服役制度定下新的基调。

On Sunday, Swiss voters will cast their ballots on more than just the high-profile population cap initiative. The national referendum will concurrently ask citizens to decide on the Civilian Service Act, which proposes to reduce the number of individuals transitioning from military service to civilian service. The results of both votes will determine whether Switzerland pursues a path of strict demographic limits and altered service requirements.