瑞典周日迎来议会大选 两大政治阵营民调胶着Sweden Heads to Polls on Sunday as Blocs Face Tight Race

瑞典定于周日上午8点至晚上8点举行全国投票，选民将在同一天决定国家议会、区域议会以及市政议会的席位归属。自8月26日提前投票启动以来，两派阵营竞争日趋激烈。根据益普索、Demoskop和Indikator Opinion等多家机构的民调，左翼四大政党支持率为49.3%至50.8%，而执政三党与瑞典民主党组成的右翼阵营支持率为47.6%至49%，双方差距在选前数周持续收窄。

Swedes are scheduled to cast ballots on Sunday between 8:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m. local time across three simultaneous votes for the national parliament, regional councils, and municipal councils, following the start of advance voting on August 26. Surveys from firms including Ipsos, Demoskop, and Indikator Opinion place the four left-bloc parties at 49.3% to 50.8% support, while Swedish Radio, Aftonbladet, and Dagens Nyheter reported the right-wing coalition and the Sweden Democrats at 47.6% to 49%, reflecting a gap that has narrowed in recent weeks.

瑞典政治长期依赖跨党派妥协与少数派政府运作模式，行政当局无需在议会赢得绝对多数，但需要阵营内政党达成合作协议。右翼阵营包括温和党、基督教民主党与自由党，并在2022年签署协议获得具有新纳粹历史渊源的瑞典民主党在内阁外的支持。作为右翼第一大力量，该党正受到首相克里斯特松的力推以正式入阁；而左翼方面由社会民主党、左翼党和绿党组成，中间党可能成为第四个盟友，整个左翼阵营均拒绝接纳瑞典民主党。

Swedish governance relies on coalition-building, compromise, and minority administrations that depend on negotiated bloc agreements rather than outright single-party majorities. The right-wing camp comprises the governing Moderates, Christian Democrats, and Liberals, alongside the Sweden Democrats—a party with neo-Nazi roots that has propped up the administration from outside the cabinet since signing a 2022 deal. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson now seeks to bring the Sweden Democrats formally into power, while the left bloc composed of the Social Democrats, Left Party, Green Party, and potentially the Centre Party continues to refuse any cooperation with them.

自2015年难民危机以来，移民问题始终是瑞典政治辩论的核心议题之一。当年约有130万寻求庇护者抵达欧洲，其中瑞典接收了创纪录的16.3万人，人均接纳量居欧盟首位。瑞典年度社会民意调查显示，那一年53%的选民将移民视为首要关切。自那以后，瑞典大幅收紧了庇护和移民政策，目前的庇护申请人数已远低于当年的峰值水平。中左翼阵营的立场相比过去更趋严格，而瑞典民主党则主张采取更为严厉的限制措施，各方争论的重心已从是否减少移民转向如何界定融合路径。

Immigration has remained a defining issue in Swedish politics since the 2015 European refugee crisis, when an estimated 1.3 million asylum seekers arrived across the continent. Sweden received 163,000 individuals that year, marking the highest annual influx in the country's history and the largest per-capita intake in the European Union. Sweden's annual SOM survey recorded that 53 percent of voters considered migration their most critical issue at the time. In response, authorities substantially restricted asylum criteria, reducing intake numbers well below their historical peak. The center-left has shifted toward more restrictive rules while the Sweden Democrats demand further cuts, turning mainstream political debate from whether to curb migration to how integration should function.

现任政府推行了更为严格的居留和入籍规定，并在今年向持有居留许可的移民提供约3.6万美元的自愿离境激励。与此同时，官方实施的强硬遣返举措也引发了社会争议。今年瑞典出现多起针对在本地长大的青少年驱逐令，这些青少年在年满18岁时被要求离开瑞典，而其父母则获准留下。相关驱逐措施在舆论讨论中占据显著篇幅后，政府于3月暂停了该做法，并在6月推动政策改革。

The current administration has introduced tighter conditions for residency and citizenship, and began offering approximately $36,000 this year as a financial incentive for migrants with residency permits to leave the country. However, stringent enforcement measures have provoked public backlash. Swedish authorities issued deportation orders to teenagers who had grown up in the country, instructing them to leave upon turning 18 while allowing their parents to remain. Following intense public scrutiny and headlines throughout the year, the government suspended the practice in March and moved to introduce reforms in June.

在经历俄罗斯对乌克兰发动军事行动后，瑞典于2024年3月正式加入北约，放弃了延续两个多世纪的军事不结盟传统。斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所的数据显示，瑞典的军费开支在2022年至2025年间大幅攀升。去年北约成员国达成共识，计划到2035年将国防开支提高至国内生产总值的3.5%，并另拨1.5%用于防务及安全相关领域。尽管军备规模经历重大调整，瑞典各主要政党在强化国防建设、应对俄罗斯威胁以及向乌克兰提供援助方面立场高度一致，使得外交与安全议题未成为选战辩论的争论焦点。

Sweden joined NATO in March 2024, ending more than two centuries of military non-alignment following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Figures from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute indicate that Swedish military expenditure climbed sharply between 2022 and 2025 as the country pursued a major rearmament program. Last year, NATO member states agreed to elevate defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, alongside an additional 1.5% allocated for defense- and security-related funding. Despite this shift, foreign policy has generated little dispute during the election campaign, as major political parties across both blocs maintain a broad consensus regarding deterrence against Russia and sustained backing for Ukraine.

除了应对俄罗斯的潜在安全挑战，欧洲盟友对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在北约承诺上的不确定性也推动了防务投资的增长。政治学者指出，瑞典的军事投入一方面旨在增强威慑能力，另一方面旨在强化北约内部的欧洲支柱。经济学家同时强调，虽然来自华盛顿的外部要求增添了政策调整的压力，但俄乌冲突本身及其引发的入约进程，已决定了瑞典长期扩大国防支出的基本走向。

Beyond addressing Russian security concerns, European uncertainty regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's commitment to NATO has added another dimension to defense planning. Analysts observe that Sweden's military investments serve both to deter potential regional aggression and to reinforce the alliance's European pillar as European governments prepare to carry a larger share of the continental security burden. Economists note that while Washington's posture adds external pressure, Sweden's strategic trajectory and long-term military spending expansion were already fundamentally established by the war in Ukraine and the nation's NATO accession.

无论周日大选由哪个阵营获胜，新一届瑞典政府都将面临严峻的财政平衡难题。北约的长期支出要求以及对乌克兰的持续支持推高了防务预算，但选民的关注重心依然停留在医疗、教育和家庭财务等国内民生领域。瑞典北欧斯安银行首席经济学家延斯·马格努松指出，竞选期间各党派做出了大量承诺，但在大选结束后这些承诺与财政现实相遇时将面临严重冲突。他强调瑞典需要在相当长一段时间内优先保障国防开支与乌克兰援助，无法继续在减税的同时扩大开支并仅靠借贷填补缺口。

Regardless of which bloc prevails in Sunday's election, the incoming Swedish government will confront an unusually difficult financial equation balancing structural defense spending with voter demands for public services. While voters remain primarily focused on domestic concerns such as healthcare, schools, and household finances, economists caution that fiscal room to fulfill campaign pledges has narrowed significantly. SEB Chief Economist Jens Magnusson stated that post-election reality will clash sharply with campaign promises, noting that Sweden must prioritize defense expenditure and support for Ukraine over an extended period and cannot maintain a pattern of cutting taxes, raising spending, and simply borrowing the difference.

斯德哥尔摩大学政治学教授约纳斯·塔尔贝格分析表示，瑞典乃至欧洲多国国防支出的持续上升必然需要以削减其他领域为代价，通常受到挤压的是福利体系或对外援助。瑞典储蓄银行首席经济学家马蒂亚斯·佩尔松同样指出，国防开支与福利开支之间存在不可避免的权衡，但政策制定者已将安全视为维持福利体系的前提，有限的财政资源最终必须确定优先次序。此外，美国贸易政策也为高度依赖出口的瑞典经济带来了外部不确定性。

Stockholm University political science professor Jonas Tallberg observed that permanently expanding defense budgets across Sweden and Europe will inevitably occur at the expense of other public priorities, particularly the welfare state and foreign aid allocations. Swedbank Chief Economist Mattias Persson concurred that a direct trade-off exists between defense commitments and social spending, noting that policymakers now view border security as a fundamental prerequisite for maintaining welfare institutions. Persson added that scarce fiscal resources must ultimately be prioritized, even as trade policies from the United States introduce additional economic variables for Sweden's export-reliant economy.