西班牙首相桑切斯宣布解散议会 提前于11月29日举行大选Spanish PM Sánchez Dissolves Parliament, Calls Snap Election for November 29

佩德罗·桑切斯于10月5日上午在马德里蒙克洛亚首相官邸发表全国电视讲话，宣布在通报国家元首后，已召开内阁特别会议正式解散议会，并将大选定于11月29日举行。这一举动使原本最晚可在2027年夏季结束的议会任期提前了六个多月结束。桑切斯表示，政府虽然在执政期间存在失误且未能实现全部既定目标，但在应对不平等、公共服务以及住房准入等深层次问题上，现有的少数派执政联盟已在议会受到阻碍。

Pedro Sánchez delivered a televised address on Monday morning from the Moncloa Palace in Madrid, announcing that after informing the head of state, he convened an extraordinary Council of Ministers meeting to dissolve parliament and schedule a snap election for November 29. The decision brings Spain's legislative term to a close more than six months ahead of its constitutional limit in summer 2027. Sánchez acknowledged that his administration had made mistakes and fell short of completing all its goals, particularly in addressing persistent domestic challenges such as economic inequality, public service provision, and housing access under a fragmented minority coalition.

桑切斯在讲话中强调，西班牙目前面临关键的政治抉择，需要重新获得并扩大公众支持。他呼吁选民动员起来，在议会中建立一个更广泛的进步派多数，以打破既有阻力并推进改革。桑切斯将此次选举定性为决定国家发展方向的公投，要求选民决定是让西班牙继续作为一个开放、具备社会正义与环保责任的国家向前迈进，还是倒退并融入极右翼浪潮。

Framing the vote as a defining choice for the country's trajectory, Sánchez called on voters to mobilize and deliver a broader progressive majority to overcome legislative resistance and push through stalled structural reforms. He asked citizens to determine whether Spain should continue advancing as an open, environmentally responsible society grounded in social justice, or move backward by joining the rising far-right political wave across Europe.

引发此次政治震荡的直接导火索是马德里丽池区87岁居民玛丽亚·德尔·卡门·阿瓦斯卡尔（又称玛丽卡门）遭强制驱逐事件。这名患有残障的老人在同一所房屋居住了70年，其月租金近期由500欧元飙升至2650欧元，无力支付后于9月被勒令搬离。该事件的现场画面播出后迅速引发公众愤怒，成为全国住房危机恶化的象征。示威者在马德里市中心的太阳门广场扎营已超过一周，全国各地的租客工会等团体随后组织了声势浩大的示威游行，组织方称上周末全国共有约95万人走上街头抗议。

The immediate catalyst for the political standoff was the September eviction of 87-year-old María del Carmen Abascal, known locally as Maricarmen, from her home of 70 years in Madrid's Retiro neighborhood. After her monthly rent rose sharply from €500 to €2,650, the disabled resident was forcibly removed from the property, turning her case into a nationwide symbol of acute housing distress. The incident sparked massive public outrage, leading housing campaigners to establish an encampment in Madrid's central Puerta del Sol that remained in place for more than a week. Demonstrations quickly expanded across Spain, with the Madrid Tenants Union and allied groups estimating that approximately 950,000 people took part in nationwide protests over the weekend.

面对民众对租金高涨和房源短缺的抗议诉求，桑切斯政府紧急拟定了两项法令法案递交议会审议。法案包含多项限制措施：将弱势租户的驱逐禁令延长至2030年、对2028年前到期的租约强制延长两年、对用于旅游短租的公寓增税，以及限制投资机构购买住宅地产。然而在上周五的表决中，主要反对党人民党、极右翼呼声党以及持右翼立场的加泰罗尼亚团结党联手投下反对票，直接导致该揽子救济措施在议会流产，进而促使桑切斯做出提前大选的决定。

In response to the escalating demonstrations, Sánchez's minority administration drafted two emergency decree laws aimed at curbing real estate speculation and shielding tenants. The package proposed suspending evictions for vulnerable renters until 2030, enforcing a two-year extension on existing leases expiring before 2028, increasing taxes on tourist rental apartments, and restricting residential property acquisitions by institutional investment firms. However, the legislation was defeated in parliament on Friday after the conservative People's Party, the far-right Vox party, and Together for Catalonia united in opposition, scuttling the measures and triggering the prime minister's decision to dissolve the legislature.

在住房危机爆发之前，桑切斯政府已在司法调查与国内治理上面临重重困难。司法部门正就社工党涉嫌滥用资金展开调查，同时针对其重要盟友、前首相何塞·路易斯·罗德里格斯·萨帕特罗以及桑切斯本人的妻子和弟弟展开腐败调查。涉案当事人员均否认存在任何违法行为，但这些调查削弱了公众对执政党的支持。

Prior to the housing legislation defeat, Pedro Sánchez's administration had already been contending with mounting judicial scrutiny and domestic governance difficulties. Judicial authorities opened inquiries into the alleged misuse of party funds by the ruling Socialist Workers' Party, alongside corruption investigations involving former Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero as well as Sánchez's wife and brother. Although all individuals under investigation have denied wrongdoing, the cases have weighed heavily on government approval ratings.

除了司法层面的压力，西班牙在边境移民管理与立法机构运转上也陷入严重僵局。今年7月，数以万计主要来自摩洛哥的移民涌入西班牙位于北非的飞地休达，事件发生两个月后当地仍处于人道危机状态，招致舆论对政府应对举措的广泛批评。在议会内部，桑切斯自2023年底组建的少数派联合政府高度依赖地区性政党，导致议会陷入长达三年无法通过国家预算法案的瘫痪局面。

Beyond legal complications, the administration faced severe pressure over border security and sustained parliamentary paralysis. In July, tens of thousands of migrants, predominantly Moroccan nationals, crossed into Spain's North African territory of Ceuta, leaving the enclave in a humanitarian crisis that persists two months later and drew widespread condemnation of the government's response. In Madrid, the left-wing minority coalition formed in late 2023 remained dependent on smaller regional factions, resulting in a protracted deadlock that prevented parliament from approving a national budget for more than three years.

民意调查机构 Politico 与咨询机构 Teneo 的追踪数据显示，阿尔贝托·努涅斯·费霍领导的保守派人民党在议会投票意向中保持领先，但难以单独获得绝对多数席位，必须依靠极右翼呼声党（Vox）的支持来组建联合政府。欧亚集团欧洲高级分析师费德里科·桑蒂评估认为，由于反对派民调稳定且左翼力量分散，中右翼赢得多数席位的概率约为70%。若人民党与呼声党达成组阁协议，这将是自1975年弗朗西斯科·佛朗哥去世、西班牙恢复民主制度以来，极右翼政党首次进入国家政府执政。

Voting intention trackers from Politico and assessment notes from Teneo indicate that the conservative People's Party holds a consistent lead over the ruling socialists, yet falls short of an absolute legislative majority. To form a governing administration, the conservatives would need parliamentary backing from the far-right Vox party. Federico Santi, senior analyst for Europe at Eurasia Group, estimated a 70% probability of an election victory resulting in a center-right majority, citing the opposition's solid polling margins and a fragmented left wing. A coalition between the People's Party and Vox would mark the first time a far-right party has entered Spain's national government since the country returned to democracy following Francisco Franco's death in 1975.

分析机构指出，桑切斯选择提前大选是一场政治博弈。咨询公司 Consello 分析师卡斯滕·尼克尔与 Teneo 分析团队认为，将选战重心转向住房这一传统中左翼议题，有助于桑切斯动员进步派选民并避开贪腐调查与移民争议；但执政超过八年的事实也可能使政府反遭选民问责。若政权更迭，新政府可能重新调整北约军费开支、对美贸易关系，并可能改变目前西班牙在欧盟内部对华贸易上主张缓和立场的对外政策。

Market and political analysts describe Pedro Sánchez's election call as a strategic gamble. According to Carsten Nickel of Consello and researchers at Teneo, centering the campaign on housing affordability allows the prime minister to energize core center-left voters around a favorable issue rather than corruption probes or border disputes, though his eight-year tenure leaves him exposed to voter blame over persistent housing shortages. A shift to a right-leaning government would also introduce policy uncertainties for international observers, potentially altering Spain's NATO defense spending commitments, its trade relations with the United States, and its current stance within the European Union advocating softer trade positions toward China.