管道遇袭致延布港停运 沙特启动船对船转运与暗渡霍尔木兹海峡替代航线Saudi Arabia Turns to Ship-to-Ship Transfers and Dark Hormuz Transits After Pipeline Strike

全长1200公里的沙特东西管道横跨该国东西两端，将东部加瓦尔油田和布盖格原油处理设施与红海沿岸的延布港相连，设计最大输油能力约为700万桶/日。该管道建于1981年两伊战争期间，设立初衷是为规避霍尔木兹海峡关闭风险。自2月28日美以对伊朗军事行动导致霍尔木兹海峡基本关闭以来，延布港已成为沙特维持原油外运的核心通道。

The 1,200-kilometer East-West pipeline links Saudi Arabia's major eastern oil operations at Ghawar and Abqaiq to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, operating with a maximum throughput capacity of around 7 million barrels per day. Built in 1981 during the Iran-Iraq war to circumvent potential blockages at the Strait of Hormuz, the infrastructure became the kingdom's primary export outlet after Hormuz shipping ground to a halt following the outbreak of the United States-Israel conflict with Iran on February 28.

无人机袭击破坏管道设施后，每天有400万至500万桶原油输送中断，延布港装货作业被迫叫停，利雅得方面也取消了部分针对欧洲客户的供应配额。沙特原油装运总量从8月的约230万桶/日进一步下滑至9月上半月的约210万桶/日。尽管美国能源部官员认为停运将在数日内解决，但美联社援引两位地区官员的评估指出，管道受损严重，实际修复工作预计需要3至5周。

The recent drone strike halted crude flows, removing between 4 million and 5 million barrels per day from global distribution, forcing Yanbu loading operations to pause and prompting Riyadh to cancel scheduled shipments to European buyers. Saudi Arabia's total crude loadings dropped to roughly 2.1 million barrels per day in the first half of September, down from about 2.3 million in August. While U.S. officials anticipate a rapid restart within days, two regional officials cited by The Associated Press estimated that repair work will require three to five weeks.

在东西管道停运且红海南向航道受阻的情况下，沙特阿美启动了替代物流网络，通过阿曼苏哈尔港外海的船对船（STS）转运模式，向亚洲炼油商提供额外原油现货。伦敦船舶经纪机构吉布森咨询研究总监理查德·马修斯表示，油轮在通过阿曼沿海海域时会关闭自动识别系统（AIS）应答器暗渡，并可能与美国海军进行协调，但依然面临袭击威胁。伦敦证券交易所集团大宗商品分析师里希·拉贾纳拉指出，海湾产油国此前已采用苏哈尔近海转运分流部分出口，但受制于油轮运力、保险及运费，规模仍低于战前水准。

Facing the disruption of its western pipeline and hostility along southern Red Sea maritime routes, Saudi Aramco activated alternative logistics mechanisms by arranging ship-to-ship crude transfers off Sohar, Oman, to supply Asian refiners. Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, noted that tankers transit Omani waters with their automatic identification system transponders switched off to go dark and likely coordinate with the U.S. Navy, though they remain exposed to physical attack risks. Rishi Rajanala, an oil research specialist at LSEG Data & Analytics, observed that Gulf producers have previously used Sohar transfers, though shipment volumes remain constrained by tanker availability, freight expenses, and marine insurance costs.

睿咨得能源上游研究副总裁拉胡尔·乔杜里介绍，得益于这些替代措施，经霍尔木兹海峡外运的石油量在9月前两周攀升至每天200多万桶，比8月增加了约100万桶/日。由于沙特阿美正持续在苏哈尔为亚洲客户安排额外装载配额，预计9月下半月经霍尔木兹海峡的出口规模将保持上升态势。分析人士同时指出，穿行该海峡的穿梭油轮如果关闭追踪系统，可能未被常规航运数据完整收录，因此沙特实际原油装运总量可能略高于公开统计。

Shipments navigating the Strait of Hormuz route rebounded during the first two weeks of September to surpass two million barrels per day, an increase of roughly one million barrels per day compared to August, according to Rahul Choudhary, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy. Choudhary stated that Hormuz exports are expected to rise further during the second half of the month as Aramco offers additional crude loadings out of Sohar, allowing Riyadh to lean on dark tanker operations to mitigate the loss of Yanbu throughput. Energy analysts also pointed out that official loading statistics may undercount total Saudi exports because shuttle tankers operating with tracking deactivated are not always captured in standard maritime vessel tracking data.

尽管沙特探索了多元化的物流替代通道，但重返波斯湾航线依然受制于高昂的运输与安全成本。吉布森船舶经纪机构咨询与研究总监理查德·马修斯指出，经由霍尔木兹海峡转移出口将推高整个中东原油外运的运费，并带来额外的物流低效。伦敦证券交易所集团大宗商品分析师里希·拉贾纳拉分析称，除了经霍尔木兹海峡转移外，沙特的另一条出路是动用西海岸以及埃及艾因苏赫奈港和西迪克里尔码头储存的原油，通过苏麦德管道继续向欧洲供应，但这完全取决于现有库存的维系时长。

While alternative shipping arrangements have cushioned the export drop, routing crude back through the Persian Gulf carries significant operational costs and risks. Richard Matthews, director of consultancy and research at Gibson Shipbrokers, stated that returning to Hormuz routes will drive freight costs higher for Middle East exports and create logistical inefficiencies. Rishi Rajanala, an oil research specialist at LSEG Data & Analytics, outlined that besides Persian Gulf transfers, Riyadh's options include drawing down stored crude on the western coast and at Egypt's Ain Sukhna and Sidi Kerir terminals to supply Europe via the Sumed pipeline, though this measure is strictly limited by how long existing stockpiles last.

行业分析指出，第三种可能方案是依据受损程度对管道实施分阶段重启。然而，若管道停运持续数周以上，沙特的原油库存将逐步耗尽，而任何无法通过波斯湾通道运出的原油只能被迫就地储存或停止开采。由于沙特8月份的原油产量已经远低于战前水平，停运若继续延长，恐将给该国本已承压的产能带来更大下行压力。

Rajanala also highlighted a phased restart of the pipeline as an alternative depending on physical damage assessments. Energy experts warn that if the disruption extends beyond a few weeks, stored petroleum volumes will be exhausted. Any crude that cannot be shipped through the Gulf would have to be placed into storage or left unproduced, placing severe constraints on production levels that had already fallen far below pre-war volumes by August.

在沙特阿美启动应急转运方案并向亚洲客户释放额外现货的消息传出后，国际原油价格连续走低。周四早间，布伦特原油期货价格跌至每桶105.81美元，美国原油期货价格下跌0.22%至每桶102.14美元。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周二在接受美国消费者新闻与商业频道采访时表示，东西管道的中断属于短暂且临时的停顿，预期影响将按天计算，这一表态在一定程度上平息了现货市场的恐慌情绪。

Global oil prices extended their decline into Thursday as news of Saudi Arabia's alternative export arrangements and crude offerings to Asian refiners helped ease market supply anxiety. Brent crude futures moved slightly lower to $105.81 per barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.22 percent to $102.14 per barrel. In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the East-West pipeline outage was a brief and temporary interruption that would be measured in days, an assessment that helped calm prompt market concerns.

XS.com业务发展主管彼得·马萨布尼在研究报告中分析指出，沙特寻求替代出口渠道的举措让市场确信部分供应将得以恢复，但未来前景仍高度取决于中东冲突的具体走向。马萨布尼警告称，该地区局势若再度出现升级并造成更广泛的油气生产与出口中断，将使全球通胀风险居高不下并推升债券收益率。同时，原油、汽油和柴油价格持续处于关键高位的不确定性，也可能加剧市场对美联储未来货币政策路径的悲观预期。

Peter Massabni, head of business development at XS.com, noted in an analysis that Saudi efforts to secure alternative transit have reassured traders that lost crude supply could return, though the overall market outlook remains heavily tied to conflict developments in the Middle East. Massabni warned that any renewed regional escalation causing deeper disruptions to oil and gas production would keep inflation risks elevated and apply upward pressure on bond yields. Persistent high prices for crude, gasoline, and diesel amid regional uncertainty could also deepen market pessimism regarding the future trajectory of U.S. Federal Reserve monetary policy.