俄罗斯开启战后首次国家杜马选举 执政党料将维持议会多数Russia Opens First Wartime Parliamentary Election as Ruling Party Eyes Majority
俄罗斯于2026年9月18日开启为期三天的国家杜马选举投票。这是自2022年2月对乌克兰发动全面军事行动以来，俄罗斯举行的首次议会下院选举。投票横跨全俄11个时区，并涵盖被俄罗斯控制的顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松、扎波罗热四个乌克兰被占领地区以及克里米亚。在克里姆林宫的严格管控下，支持总统普京的执政党统一俄罗斯党预计将继续维持其在450个席位中的多数地位。 这场选举在战事外溢与经济承压的背景下展开。乌克兰无人机对俄罗斯炼油厂与仓储设施的持续袭击引发了全国范围的燃料短缺与物价上涨，选民对长期消耗战的担忧持续上升。为了防范抗议性投票，俄最高法院在选前取消了唯一公开反战政党亚博卢党的参选资格，当局同时对包括俄共在内的体制内反对派候选人实施了限制与资格剥夺。克里姆林宫试图通过这场高度受控的投票动员社会支持并展示政治团结，但民调显示执政党的支持率已降至四年来的低点。
Russia began three days of voting on September 18, 2026, to elect the 450 members of the State Duma, marking the country's first parliamentary election since launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Balloting opened across 11 time zones and included Russian-controlled parts of Ukraine in Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. President Vladimir Putin's governing party, United Russia, is widely projected to retain its parliamentary majority amid tightly managed political conditions. The vote takes place as domestic pressures mount from four and a half years of war. Widespread Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries and logistics warehouses have triggered domestic fuel shortages and economic strains, fueling public weariness over a prolonged conflict. To eliminate potential protest votes, Russia's Supreme Court revoked the ballot registration of Yabloko, the country's only registered anti-war party, while authorities also restricted or disqualified prominent candidates from systemic opposition groups such as the Communist Party. The Kremlin seeks to use the election to demonstrate public cohesion, even as poll data indicates United Russia's approval ratings have fallen to a four-year low.
01战时首次杜马选举启动：投票机制与占领区安排First Wartime Duma Vote Begins: Procedures and Occupied Territories
投票于周五在俄罗斯远东的堪察加半岛和楚科奇地区率先开启，随后沿全俄11个时区自东向西陆续铺开。俄官方设立了为期三天的投票窗口并开放电子投票渠道，面向全国约1.11亿注册选民，旨在通过延长投票时间拉动整体投票率。在国家杜马的450个席位分配中，半数席位通过全国政党名单比例代表制产生，另外半数则通过单选区多数制角逐。与此同时，俄罗斯在39个地区同步进行地方议会选举，并在11个地区举行州长选举。
Polling stations opened early Friday in Russia's Far Eastern regions of Kamchatka and Chukotka before progressing westward across the country's 11 time zones. Authorities instituted a three-day voting window alongside electronic balloting options for approximately 111 million eligible voters, an operational framework structured to boost overall turnout. The 450 seats in the State Duma are evenly divided, with half contested through national party-list proportional representation and the remaining half decided in single-member constituencies. Parallel to the federal parliamentary race, voters in 39 regions are choosing regional legislative representatives, while 11 regions are conducting gubernatorial elections.
本次选举首次将投票机制全面延伸至战后吞并的乌克兰顿涅茨克、卢甘斯克、赫尔松与扎波罗热四个地区，以及此前控制的克里米亚半岛。乌克兰方面指责在被占领区域组织投票违反国际法且完全非法。分析人士指出，在选举结果缺乏悬念的情况下，克里姆林宫利用多日投票与广泛的占领区动员，试图向国内外展示对新占领领土的行政统辖与战时社会动员能力。
The election incorporates residents living in the Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, alongside Crimea. The Ukrainian government has denounced the staging of Russian ballots in occupied territories as illegal. Independent analysts note that with parliamentary outcomes largely secured in advance, the Kremlin relies on three-day procedures, digital voting mechanisms, and occupied-area balloting to demonstrate administrative consolidation over contested territories and project nationwide political cohesion.
02选前审查与候选人排除：亚博卢党遭取缔与体制内反对派受限Pre-Election Vetting: Disqualification of Yabloko and Squeeze on Systemic Opposition
在投票启动前的数周内，俄罗斯当局加大了对候选人资格的审查力度。作为全俄唯一合法注册且公开呼吁在乌克兰停火的政党，亚博卢党曾在7月获准参选，但随着其反战口号在搜索引擎和社交平台引发公众关注激增，最高法院于8月以涉嫌破坏选举程序为由取消了该党的参选资格。亚博卢党联合创始人格里戈里·亚夫林斯基表示，克里姆林宫对该党主张停火所获得的民意支持感到意外；该党重要人物列夫·施洛斯伯格此前已因批评战事被捕入狱。
In the weeks preceding the vote, Russian authorities intensified vetting procedures to remove dissenting voices from the ballot. The Yabloko party, Russia's only legally registered political organization openly calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, was initially granted registration in July. However, after its anti-war platform triggered a sharp surge in online search interest and social media support, the Supreme Court revoked the party's registration in August on accusations of undermining the electoral process. Yabloko co-founder Grigory Yavlinsky stated that the Kremlin was taken aback by public support for the party's ceasefire message, while prominent party figure Lev Shlosberg was previously imprisoned for criticizing the military campaign.
除了取缔反战派别，克里姆林宫还收紧了对体制内被管理反对派的约束。俄罗斯联邦共产党虽然在国家杜马中与执政党配合表决重大法案，但其部分地方分支和对战事后果发声的候选人受到了严格限制。例如，在社交平台拥有超过两百万关注者的俄共人士尼古拉·邦达连科因曾发布纳瓦利内照片被控展示极端主义符号而遭剥夺参选资格。在地方层面，竞选活动受到冷遇，梁赞地区的官方电视台转播甚至因全体注册候选人缺席电视辩论而被迫中断。
Restrictions also targeted candidates within the systemic, managed opposition. Although the Communist Party of the Russian Federation generally votes alongside United Russia on major legislation in the Duma, several of its outspoken figures faced administrative disqualifications. Nikolay Bondarenko, a Communist politician with more than two million YouTube subscribers, was barred from running under accusations of displaying extremist symbols after posting a photo of Alexey Navalny. Campaign activities were tightly constrained elsewhere; in Ryazan, a regional state television channel had to suspend a scheduled election broadcast when all six registered candidates failed to appear in the studio for their televised debate.
俄罗斯战时杜马选举演变历程Key Milestones Leading to Russia's Wartime Duma Election
梳理自2021年杜马选举及乌克兰战事爆发以来，俄罗斯战时政治管控收紧与选举推进的关键节点。
Traces key political and wartime developments leading up to Russia's first parliamentary election since the 2022 invasion.
统一俄罗斯党在2021年国家杜马选举中赢得超过三分之二的议席，确立了其在国家杜马450个席位中的绝对主导地位。
United Russia won more than two-thirds of the 450 Duma seats in the 2021 parliamentary election, cementing its dominant control over the lower house.
俄罗斯在2022年2月发起对乌克兰的全面军事进攻，导致地缘危机爆发，并对俄国内政治与经济运行格局造成深远冲击。
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, initiating a prolonged conflict that reshaped Russia's domestic political and economic environment.
克里姆林宫于2022年9月下令实施大规模动员以应对战事，促使俄罗斯社会公众对冲突的焦虑情绪急剧上升。
The Kremlin announced a mass military mobilization in September 2022 to support its military campaign, driving public anxiety across Russia to unprecedented levels.
作为俄罗斯唯一呼吁在乌克兰停火的合法政党，亚博卢党在7月获得参选资格，其反战纲领随即在网络与社交媒体引发广泛关注。
The Yabloko party, Russia's only legally registered political organization openly calling for a ceasefire in Ukraine, was initially granted candidate registration in July.
俄罗斯最高法院在8月以破坏选举程序为由撤销了亚博卢党的登记，将唯一的反战派政党彻底排除在杜马选举之外。
In August, Russia's Supreme Court revoked Yabloko's ballot registration on allegations of undermining the electoral process, barring the only anti-war party from contesting the vote.
俄罗斯启动为期三天的杜马选举投票，覆盖11个时区及俄控乌克兰地区，在经济承压与无人机袭扰阴影下执政党料将维持多数。
Voting commenced across 11 time zones and Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories for the three-day State Duma election, with United Russia poised to retain its majority.
03战事阴影下的民意：燃料危机、无人机袭击与经济放缓Public Sentiment Under the Shadow of War: Fuel Shortages, Drone Strikes, and Slowing Growth
战事持续四年半带来的直接冲击正在深刻改变俄罗斯国内的社会情绪。乌克兰无人机对炼油厂与后勤物流设施的频繁打击引发了全国性的燃料危机，加油站排队现象频发，推升了通胀水平，加重了未参与军工产业普通家庭的生活开支。俄罗斯经济增速停滞，政府内部也出现分歧，国家开发银行前首席经济学家安德烈·克列帕奇上月因提交报告警示俄罗斯无法在长期消耗战中获胜并预言重大社会危机而遭解职，俄最大银行联邦储蓄银行总裁格尔曼·格列夫此前也曾公开提示经济衰退风险。
After four and a half years of full-scale conflict, the domestic fallout from the war in Ukraine has reshaped Russian society. Ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes targeting Russian oil refineries and logistical warehouses have triggered widespread fuel shortages and long queues at service stations, pushing up inflation and squeezing households that lack members working in defense industries. With economic growth grinding to a halt, internal disagreements over the financial toll have surfaced: the Kremlin dismissed Andrei Klepach, the former chief economist at state development bank VEB, after he presented a report warning that Russia could not win a prolonged war of attrition and predicting severe social upheaval, while Sberbank chief executive German Gref previously clashed with authorities after raising recession warnings.
除了物质层面的生活压力，公众对征兵动员与战事持久化的焦虑显著蔓延。独立民调机构列瓦达中心的数据显示，俄罗斯社会的公众焦虑感已攀升至2022年9月宣布部分动员以来的最高水平。伦敦商学院经济学教授谢尔盖·古里耶夫指出，俄罗斯社会及部分精英阶层已逐渐形成战争代价过高的共识并开始谈论结束战事的必要性，选民对长期冲突的疲态使得执政联盟在地方层面的民意凝聚力遭遇实际检验。
Beyond economic strains, fears surrounding extended warfare and further conscription have spread among the populace. Independent polling by the Levada Center shows public anxiety reaching levels not recorded since the Kremlin announced mass mobilization in September 2022. Sergei Guriev, dean and professor of economics at London Business School, observed that a broad sentiment has taken hold across Russian society and even segments of the elite that the war has become excessively costly, testing United Russia's ability to maintain genuine public backing at the ballot box.
04执政党的胜选预期与克里姆林宫的政治目标Ruling Party Dominance and the Kremlin's Political Objectives
为确保议会选举展现稳固的统治基础，统一俄罗斯党推出了由资深政界高层领衔的候选人名单，包括已任职22年的俄罗斯外交部长谢尔盖·拉夫罗夫和莫斯科市长谢尔盖·索比亚宁。为了淡化外界对该党官僚化形象的印象，执政党将此前遭乌克兰无人机袭击负重伤的战地记者叶夫根尼·波杜布内排在名单第三顺位。在2021年上届选举中获得超三分之二席位的统一俄罗斯党，本届选情依旧在杜马保持压倒性领先优势。
To project governmental stability and cohesion, United Russia constructed its national candidate roster around prominent establishment figures, headed by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who has served as the country's top diplomat for 22 years, alongside Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin. In an effort to introduce fresh faces to what is widely perceived as a party of bureaucrats, the party placed war correspondent Yevgeny Poddubny, who was severely injured in a Ukrainian drone strike, in its third-ranking candidate slot. Having secured more than two-thirds of Duma seats in 2021, the governing party is positioned to retain overwhelming control.
尽管大局已定，克里姆林宫仍根据民意变动对选情指标作出了微调。据相关政治分析与报道披露，克里姆林宫预设的选举目标为50%投票率以及统一俄罗斯党取得50%得票率，其中执政党的得票目标相较此前设定的55%有所下调，以应对民间对通胀与燃料短缺的不满情绪。政治分析人士指出，在普京亲自为执政党背书的情形下，当局意在借助选举动员社会凝聚力并赋予战时施政合法性，力求避免任何形式的抗议选票破坏政治稳定形象。
Despite the absence of viable electoral rivals, Kremlin political managers have recalibrated their targets to reflect public mood shifts. According to political reporting, authorities established an operational target of 50 percent voter turnout and 50 percent of the vote for United Russia, lowering the party's vote threshold from an earlier 55 percent goal in response to widespread public frustration over living costs and fuel disruptions. Analysts observe that with President Vladimir Putin personally campaigning for United Russia, the administration seeks to utilize the balloting process to legitimize wartime governance and demonstrate national unity while minimizing the risk of visible dissent.
