十月七日袭击三周年之际 内塔尼亚胡面临事前预警指控与大选问责Netanyahu Faces Advance Warning Scrutiny and Election Fallout on Oct. 7 Anniversary

在2023年10月7日袭击发生三周年之际，遇难者家属与民众在雷姆附近的诺瓦音乐节旧址、卡法阿扎基布兹以及以色列南部的避难所和道路路口举行悼念。在超过350人丧生的诺瓦音乐节现场，哀悼者在清晨6点29分——即三年前首批火箭弹发射的时间——肃立默哀，并在遇难者与安全人员的遗像前献花追思。卡法阿扎基布兹则在无声中升起了以色列国旗。

On the third anniversary of the October 7, 2023, attacks, bereaved families and mourners assembled across southern Israel, including at the Nova music festival site near Reim, Kibbutz Kfar Aza, and various road intersections and bomb shelters. At the festival location, where more than 350 attendees and security personnel were killed, relatives observed a moment of silence at 6:29 a.m.—the exact minute the initial barrage of rockets was launched three years earlier—and paid tribute before portraits of the victims. Mourners at Kfar Aza watched quietly as the national flag was raised.

与此同时，加沙地带持续面临军事打击与人道危机。加沙地带卫生部门数据显示，三年来已有超过7.4万名巴勒斯坦人丧生，其中约半数为妇女和儿童。当地大部分人口流离失所，多数居民生活在简陋帐篷区中，城市大面积沦为废墟。尽管约一年前达成了停火协议，以色列军队仍控制着加沙过半土地，局部军事打击仍在发生。

Across the border, the Gaza Strip continues to endure severe destruction and civilian casualties resulting from the protracted military campaign. Local health authorities report that more than 74,000 Palestinians have been killed, approximately half of whom are women and children. Most of the enclave's population remains displaced in squalid tent camps, with vast urban areas reduced to rubble. Despite a ceasefire reached roughly one year ago, the Israeli military maintains control over more than half of the territory, and strikes persist.

以色列及美国媒体在三周年之际披露了多起事前预警的详细情况。以色列记者施洛米·埃尔达尔与露丝·尤瓦尔在著作节选及《国土报》报道中引述知情人士披露，阿联酋总统穆罕默德·本·扎耶德·阿勒纳哈扬在2023年10月7日袭击发生前约10天曾致电内塔尼亚胡，进行了长达45分钟的通话。报道称，阿勒纳哈扬在通话中提出哈马斯加沙领导人叶海亚·辛瓦尔正策划重大行动，可能引发流血冲突并破坏地区稳定；但内塔尼亚胡反应平静，称以色列已对任何可能的情况作好准备，且事后并未将通话内容通报以色列国家安全局、摩萨德或以军参谋长，而阿勒纳哈扬随后将通话事宜告知了时任美国中央情报局局长威廉·伯恩斯。

Details of advance intelligence warnings have surfaced through Israeli and U.S. media accounts marking the third anniversary. Israeli journalists Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval reported, in book extracts published by Haaretz, that United Arab Emirates President Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan warned Netanyahu during a 45-minute phone conversation approximately ten days before October 7, 2023. Sourcing three foreign senior figures and a Palestinian adviser, the report stated that bin Zayed cautioned that former Hamas leader in Gaza Yahya Sinwar was orchestrating a major operation capable of causing bloodshed and regional instability. Netanyahu reportedly responded calmly that Israel was prepared for any scenario, but did not subsequently brief the Shin Bet, Mossad, or the military chief of staff, while bin Zayed later informed then-CIA Director William J. Burns about the exchange.

除阿联酋方面外，巴勒斯坦前官员兼斡旋人苏菲安·阿布·扎伊达也披露，自己在袭击发生前曾协助斡旋巴以长达一年多的秘密接触。2023年9月14日，辛瓦尔曾向其口述信息，称到9月底哈马斯将把所有筹码摆上桌面，谈判将发生“大地震”，并要求以方准备清空监狱。阿布·扎伊达随后将该警告转交给了以色列情报官员。中东地区四位知情人士证实，内塔尼亚胡及其安全机构在袭击前数周和数天内多次接获来自地区方面的袭击预警。

Additional mediation channels also conveyed warnings prior to the assault. Former Palestinian Authority official Sufian Abu Zaida, who helped mediate secret talks over prisoner exchanges for more than a year, stated that Sinwar dictated a message to him on September 14, 2023, declaring an impending 'earthquake' in negotiations by month's end and telling Israel to prepare to empty its prisons. Abu Zaida forwarded the message to an Israeli intelligence official who acknowledged its receipt. Four individuals with direct knowledge in the Middle East confirmed that Netanyahu and Israeli security agencies received recurring alerts in the preceding weeks and days.

针对外界有关事前知情的系列指控，以色列总理办公室发表声明全盘否认。该办公室表示，内塔尼亚胡此前从未收到过任何针对袭击的预先警告，并将相关媒体报道定性为以色列左翼官员具有明确政治时机意图的“险恶捏造”。内塔尼亚胡本人亦公开将这些报道斥为“虚假新闻”，坚决驳斥关于其对袭击风险知情不报的指责。

Addressing the allegations of advance knowledge, the Israeli prime minister's office issued a formal denial, stating that Benjamin Netanyahu had received no prior warning of an impending attack. The office characterized the published media reports as a 'wicked fabrication with clear political timing' orchestrated by left-wing Israeli officials, while Netanyahu personally dismissed the reporting as 'fake news' and firmly rejected claims that he ignored actionable intelligence.

为反击媒体报道，内塔尼亚胡已正式对刊发相关调查的以色列《国土报》及其他新闻机构提起了诽谤诉讼。与此同时，内塔尼亚胡与其国防部长将注意力转向当前的安全防务，向公众发出警告称，哈马斯可能在三周年纪念日以及本月晚些时候的全国议会选举前夕尝试发起袭击或制造安全挑战。

In response to the publications, Netanyahu has filed defamation lawsuits against Israeli news outlets, including the daily newspaper Haaretz, for carrying the investigation. Concurrently, Netanyahu and his defense minister shifted public focus toward immediate security concerns, issuing warnings that Hamas could seek to mount new attacks or challenge Israel during the October 7 memorial proceedings and in the period leading up to the national legislative elections later this month.

在定于10月27日举行的议会选举前夕，十月七日防务溃败的问责问题成为内塔尼亚胡争取连任的核心争议。遇难者家属在纪念仪式上对其拒绝承担安全失职责任表达愤怒。尽管关于阿拉伯国家领导人事先发出预警的报道削弱了内塔尼亚胡将责任归咎于安全部门负责人的说法，但多方分析指出其右翼核心政治基本盘仍然保持稳固。

Ahead of the national legislative elections scheduled for October 27, the issue of accountability for the October 7 security failures has emerged as a major point of contention in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's reelection bid. Bereaved relatives have voiced public outrage over his repeated refusal to accept responsibility for the intelligence and military collapse. Although reports that Arab leaders provided advance warnings have undermined Netanyahu's assertions that Israel's security chiefs bear sole responsibility, his core political base appears resilient as the vote approaches.

三年来，十月七日袭击打破了以色列社会对军力与技术优势的绝对信心，并推动以色列国内政治整体向右翼倾斜。学者与民意调查显示，袭击引发的群体心理创伤与恐惧被政治力量动员，促使以色列公众在加沙军事行动、定居点扩张及巴勒斯坦议题上接受更趋强硬的政策立场，严重削弱了以巴间原有的接触基础与信任。

Beyond the immediate electoral battle, the trauma of the 2023 assault has permanently altered Israel's domestic political landscape and shattered long-standing domestic assumptions regarding military invincibility. Sociologists and political psychologists observe that widespread societal fear has been mobilized to normalize hard-line security stances. Public polling reflects an Israeli electorate that has moved significantly to the right, heavily endorsing expanded military operations and West Bank settlement growth while eroding decades of political engagement on the Palestinian question.