以色列大选选情胶着 内塔尼亚胡与埃森科特面临组阁死锁与对巴政策延续Netanyahu and Eisenkot Face Impasse in Tightly Contested Israeli Election

以色列采用比例代表制，历史上所有政府均由多党联盟组成，大选后的组阁谈判往往耗时数周甚至数月。在2026年10月27日的选举前夕，民意调查显示两大犹太政治阵营势均力敌：现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡带领的宗教民族主义阵营与前以军参谋长加迪·埃森科特带领的“变革阵营”，预计在120席的议会中各自仅能拿下约50个席位。由于距离61席的执政多数门槛均存在明显差距，双方在制度上均无法单独组建多数派政府。

Israel's proportional representation voting system has historically required governing coalitions among multiple parties, routinely extending post-election negotiations over weeks or months. Heading into the October 27, 2026 ballot, survey data indicates an electoral impasse between the two main Jewish political blocs: incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's religious-nationalist alliance and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot's Change Bloc are each projected to win around 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Because commanding a working majority requires at least 61 seats, neither formation possesses a direct arithmetic route to form a majority cabinet on its own.

竞选议题主要围绕2023年10月7日袭击事件暴露的安全防务漏洞、极端正统派兵役豁免争议以及司法改革等核心矛盾展开。挑战者们普遍就袭击事件向内塔尼亚胡追责，内塔尼亚胡则着力重塑其安全领导力形象。若大选后没有任何阵营能够凑足法定多数组建联合政府，以色列不仅可能出现少数派政府，还可能依照制度流程触发新一轮议会大选，这意味着在下一次投票产生确定结果之前，现任政府将继续依法留任。

Campaign discourse has centered on accountability for the security failures surrounding the October 7, 2023 attacks, deep-seated domestic disputes over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men, and proposed judicial overhauls. While challengers focus on wartime intelligence breakdowns, Netanyahu has campaigned on his strategic record. If neither bloc manages to assemble a 61-seat coalition through post-vote dealmaking, the country could see a minority government or face renewed snap elections, a scenario that leaves the incumbent administration holding power in an interim capacity until another vote takes place.

占以色列约五分之一人口的巴勒斯坦裔公民在本次投票前面临体制幻灭与阻止极右翼继续执政的双重考量。2023年10月7日后，该群体面临更严厉的言论审查、工作解雇以及政府削减社区预算，极右翼财政部长比撒列·斯莫特里赫更宣称要推进加利利和内盖夫的“犹太化”。9月23日，以色列中央选举委员会曾投票取消联合名单和联合阿拉伯名单的参选资格，尽管最高法院推翻了这一决定，但巴拉德党领导人萨米·阿布·谢哈德在得知法官倾向支持其取消资格后退选，加剧了选民对选举制度合法性的质疑。

Palestinian citizens of Israel, who make up approximately one-fifth of the national population, face a stark calculation between institutional alienation and a tactical drive to defeat the hard-right governing coalition. Since the October 7, 2023 attacks, the community has reported heightened free-speech restrictions, workplace dismissals, and disproportionate municipal budget cuts, alongside pledges by far-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich to pursue the Judaization of the Galilee and Negev regions. Tensions escalated on September 23 when the Central Elections Committee voted to disqualify both the Joint List and Ra'am; although the Supreme Court later overturned the rulings, Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh withdrew his candidacy after justices signaled support for his individual disqualification, deepening suspicions regarding electoral fairness.

以往五次大选中，巴勒斯坦裔选民投票率在45%至65%之间浮动，2022年为53%。竞选运作人士援引民调预计本次投票率或达62%，目标设定在70%至75%。活动人士指出，冲高投票率旨在抬高有效票基数，从而压低“以色列人民”和“预备役军人”等极右翼小党跨过3.25%选举门槛的几率，直接改变议会多数格局。面对纳匝勒街头动员与网络仇恨宣传的拉扯，这一群体正试图通过选票对抗极右翼联盟的扩张。

Turnout among Palestinian citizens varied between 45 and 65 percent across the past five national ballots, settling at 53 percent in 2022. Campaign operatives cite polling pointing to an estimated 62 percent turnout this cycle, with community organizers aiming for 70 to 75 percent to reshape the Knesset math. Mobilization figures note that a surge in participation raises the overall vote total, which could prevent marginal far-right factions such as Amcha Yisrael and The Reservists from clearing the 3.25 percent electoral threshold required to enter parliament. Amid doorstep leafleting in Nazareth and aggressive campaign rhetoric, voters are actively weighing political skepticism against the tangible consequences of another hard-right term.

民意调查显示，两大阿拉伯主要政治派系——由哈达什党、巴拉德党和塔阿勒党组成的联合名单，以及由曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导的伊斯兰政党联合阿拉伯名单——预计将在新一届议会中合计斩获13至14个席位。在两大犹太阵营均徘徊在50席左右且无法单独越过61席门槛的情况下，这两大阿拉伯派系在数学层面具备成为决定政权归属的关键少数地位。联合阿拉伯名单领导人阿巴斯也公开主张阿拉伯政党应进入能够发挥政治影响力的位置。

Opinion polling projects that the two main Arab-majority political factions—the Joint List, comprising Hadash, Balad, and Ta'al, and the smaller Islamist United Arab List led by Mansour Abbas—will collectively win between 13 and 14 seats in the Knesset. With both rival Jewish blocs projected to secure around 50 seats each, falling well short of the 61-seat threshold required for a governing majority, the Arab-led lists hold the theoretical arithmetic to serve as decisive kingmakers. United Arab List leader Abbas has explicitly articulated a goal of bringing Arab parties into a position of governing influence.

这一组阁途径面临几乎不可逾越的政治壁垒。除一家主要犹太政党外，包括埃森科特在内的绝大多数犹太党派领导人均已公开排除与阿拉伯政党组建联合政府，埃森科特对此给出的理由是双方缺乏共同价值观。与此同时，内塔尼亚胡阵营通过在拿撒勒入口处竖立将反对派与巴勒斯坦绑定的竞选广告牌以及生成人工智能视频，指称对手试图联合阿拉伯人组建危险政府。反对派若拒绝推翻不与内塔尼亚胡合作的承诺，又无法接纳阿拉伯政党，以色列议会可能陷入无法组阁的死锁状态，并依照程序被迫宣布再次举行大选。

However, this arithmetic pathway confronts near-total resistance across the political establishment. All but one of the leading Jewish parties have ruled out forming a coalition with Arab factions; Eisenkot himself dismissed such an alliance by citing an absence of shared values. Simultaneously, Netanyahu's campaign has sought to delegitimize his rivals by erecting billboards at the entrance to Nazareth warning of a choice between "Right or Palestine" and circulating AI-generated videos depicting opposition leaders embracing Arab figures. If anti-Netanyahu factions refuse to reverse their pledges against sitting with the incumbent while continuing to exclude Arab parties, the resulting impasse would prevent any majority cabinet, compelling the Knesset to trigger renewed snap elections.

在加沙事务上，两位主要竞选领跑者的实际施政构想高度趋同。本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与加迪·埃森科特均公开支持唐纳德·特朗普提出的和平方案，该方案主张以哈马斯解除武装换取以色列分阶段从加沙撤军。加沙停火一年后，以军仍控制着该地区一半以上土地并几乎每天发动打击。埃森科特近期承诺若有必要将动用军事手段在18个月内终结哈马斯统治。联合国认可的哈马斯卫生部门数据显示冲突已造成加沙逾74000人丧生，无论选举结果由谁胜出，以色列在加沙的安全与军事方针都表现出很强的延续性。

Regarding policy on Gaza, the two leading prime ministerial contenders share substantial operational ground. Both Benjamin Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot publicly endorse Donald Trump's peace plan, an outline under which Hamas would surrender its weapons in exchange for a phased withdrawal of Israeli forces. A year after an initial truce, the Israeli military maintains control over more than half of the strip and conducts near-daily strikes aimed at Hamas operatives. In his campaign, Eisenkot pledged to end Hamas rule within 18 months, deploying military means if necessary. With Gaza's Hamas-run health ministry recording over 74,000 deaths from Israeli operations since October 2023—figures treated as reliable by the United Nations—the strategic blueprint for Gaza demonstrates structural continuity regardless of who assumes the premiership.

即便埃森科特成功组建政府，其潜在执政盟友在约旦河西岸政策上的立场鸿沟亦将制约政策转向。反对派核心人物纳夫塔利·贝内特与阿维格多·利伯曼属于强硬右翼，坚持对西岸大部分地区保持永久控制；相比之下，左翼领导人亚伊尔·戈兰则主张以军从西岸大部分土地撤出。与此同时，内塔尼亚胡执政阵营部分极右翼成员以及利库德集团部分议员公开主张吞并西岸或推动巴勒斯坦人从加沙迁徙，联合国记录亦显示犹太定居点袭击处于历史高位。这表明无论权力是否交替，反对派内部在领土核心议题上的对立将极大限制对巴政策的根本性重塑。

Potential governing partners within the anti-Netanyahu camp also hold deeply irreconcilable stances on the occupied West Bank, constraining the scope of any post-election change. Opposition heavyweights Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman maintain hardline right-wing security platforms advocating permanent Israeli control over large swaths of the West Bank, whereas leftist leader Yair Golan supports Israeli withdrawal from substantial portions of the territory. Across the aisle, figures inside Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and his own Likud party advocate outright West Bank annexation alongside the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, amid record-high settler attacks documented by the United Nations. These conflicting internal doctrines suggest that a transition away from Netanyahu would face immense parliamentary resistance against altering baseline territorial policies.