以色列大选两大阵营均未过半 利库德指控阿拉伯政党窃取选举Israeli Blocs Fall Short of Majority as Netanyahu's Party Claims Election 'Stolen'

以色列中央选举委员会在完成包括军人与外交官在内的至少50万张“双信封”选票清点后，公布了10月27日议会选举的最终统计结果。本次选举投票率达到77.9%。现任总理内塔尼亚胡带领的右翼执政阵营共斩获53个议席，其中利库德集团获得27席继续保持议会第一大党地位，但相较2022年大选该联盟获得的64席出现明显下滑，未能达到掌控议会所需的61席绝大多数标准。

Israel's Central Elections Committee released final tally figures for the October 27 parliamentary vote after completing the count of at least 500,000 'double envelope' ballots cast by soldiers and diplomats, marking an overall turnout of 77.9 percent. Incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing camp secured 53 Knesset seats, anchored by his Likud party which remained the largest single parliamentary faction with 27 seats. However, this total reflects a decline from the 64 seats the governing alliance commanded in the 2022 election, leaving it eight seats short of the 61-seat threshold required for a working majority.

前以军总参谋长埃森科特领衔的反对派阵营在此次角逐中拿下了48个议席，同样与61席的执政线存在差距。选举委员会代理总干事迪安·利夫内出面澄清，针对广泛计票舞弊的说法毫无事实根据，但最终计票仍可能存在微调，预定于下周三呈交总统赫尔佐格确认。由于两派核心力量均无法单独掌控过半席位，以色列议会陷入严重力量割裂，各方就组建新政府展开的拉锯博弈随即启动。

The opposition bloc headed by former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot garnered 48 seats, likewise falling well short of assembling a unilateral majority in the 120-seat legislature. While the electoral commission's acting director general, Dean Livne, dismissed claims of widespread election issues as groundless, officials noted the tally remains open to minor corrections before formal certification to President Isaac Herzog next Wednesday. With neither leading faction able to command 61 seats on its own, the fragmented parliamentary arithmetic has established an immediate coalition stalemate.

代表以色列阿拉伯裔公民的政党在此次大选中取得历史性突破。根据倡导阿拉伯公民平等权利的民权组织穆萨瓦中心统计，阿拉伯选民的投票率由上届大选的53%大幅攀升至近80%。选民高参与度的驱动因素包括阿拉伯社区内部日益严重的暴力犯罪问题，以及对内塔尼亚胡执政联盟旗下极右翼部长的强烈反对。最终，联合名单党与拉阿姆党合力夺下19个议席，不仅创下该群体的历史最高议会席次纪录，也让两大政党联盟掌握了平衡议会力量的关键筹码。

Parties representing Arab citizens of Israel scored an unprecedented electoral breakthrough, capturing 19 Knesset seats between the Joint List and Ra'am. This historic surge was underpinned by Arab voter turnout climbing from 53 percent in the previous election to nearly 80 percent, according to the Mossawa Center, an advocacy group promoting civil equality. Voters mobilized around pressing concerns over escalating violent crime within Arab communities—often attributed to inadequate policing—as well as a shared motivation to unseat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right governing partners.

联合名单党领导人艾哈迈德·蒂比表示，该党准备协助反对派领袖埃森科特建立少数派政府，以阻止内塔尼亚胡继续执政。蒂比指出，联合名单党不会要求加入内阁或谋求任何部长职位，但要求新内阁承诺打击阿拉伯社区犯罪并停止拆除贝都因人房屋。不过，埃森科特本人及其盟友在选前曾多次表态拒绝依赖阿拉伯政党组阁，目前反对派阵营内部仅有左翼自由派民主党领导人亚伊尔·戈兰公开敦促各方展现政治勇气，与阿拉伯阵营展开接触。

Joint List leader Dr. Ahmad Tibi announced that his faction is prepared to support a minority government led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, provided the incoming leadership commits to tackling communal crime and halting the demolition of Bedouin dwellings. Tibi made clear that his party would not enter the governing coalition or demand ministerial portfolios in exchange for its outside backing. While Eisenkot and several key opposition partners repeatedly pledged during the campaign not to lean on Arab parties, left-liberal Democrats party chairman Yair Golan has pressed coalition negotiators to overcome longstanding hesitation and work directly with Arab factions.

在大选出口民调显示执政联盟受挫后，利库德集团发表声明指控阿拉伯政党借助外国资金干涉大选并“窃取”选举结果。利库德集团指称，这类外国干预意在促成外部势力掌控以色列议会、推动国家伊斯兰化并推翻右翼内阁，但该党并未公布任何实质支撑材料。最高法院法官兼中央选举委员会主席诺姆·索尔伯格随后致信国家安全局辛贝特，要求针对外国实体出资施加不正当影响的严重疑点进行调查核实，不过索尔伯格同时在信中承认，自己无法证实这些疑点的实质真实性。

Following exit polls showing setbacks for the governing coalition, Likud intensified claims that Arab-led factions had 'stolen' the parliamentary election through foreign interference. The party asserted that outside funding was directed toward facilitating a foreign takeover of the Knesset, advancing the Islamization of Israel, and toppling the right-wing administration, though it offered no evidence to validate the accusations. Supreme Court Justice Noam Sohlberg, serving as chairman of the Central Elections Committee, subsequently sent a letter directing the Shin Bet domestic security agency to investigate suspicions of improper influence involving funding from foreign entities. Sohlberg acknowledged in the communication, however, that he could not attest to the substance of the claims.

面对利库德集团的指责，阿拉伯政党领袖予以强烈驳斥，指责相关说法属于政治煽动。拉阿姆党领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯明确表态愿意配合任何正式调查，联合名单党议员优素福·贾巴林则表示内塔尼亚胡遭遇失利且拒绝接受选民的裁决。被指卷入资助争议的卡塔尔政府发表声明，全盘否认干涉大选或动员阿拉伯选民的说法，斥责有关指控荒谬且危险。以色列警方也公开表示未收到任何支持指控的材料；辛贝特则强调，相关核查绝非旨在抹黑或指责依法参与民主投票的整个公民群体。

Arab party leaders rejected Likud's charges as incitement and pledged to uphold the election outcome. Ra'am chairman Mansour Abbas affirmed his readiness to cooperate with any official inquiry, while Joint List politician Yousef Jabareen maintained that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was defeated and refused to accept the voters' decision. Qatar, accused of channeling funds to mobilize Arab turnout, dismissed the interference claims as ridiculous and dangerous in equal measure. Israeli police confirmed that investigators had received no evidence supporting the allegations, and the Shin Bet emphasized that its inquiries were not intended to cast aspersions on an entire community that voted lawfully in a democratic process.

按照法定程序，以色列总统赫尔佐格将在接下来数天内接见所有进入议会的政党代表。各派力量将向总统提出各自倾向的组阁人选推荐，而赫尔佐格无需必然挑选第一大党利库德集团的领袖，其核心考量在于哪位候选人更有可能拼凑出至少61席的执政联盟。受命组阁的人选将获得28天的法定交涉期以争取多数支持，总统亦有权批准至多14天的延期。根据当前席位格局，埃森科特获得的议员推荐票数被认为可能超过内塔尼亚胡，从而在程序初始阶段占据先机。

Under constitutional protocol, President Isaac Herzog will begin consultations in the coming days with representatives from every party elected to the 120-member legislature. Each political faction will submit its recommendation regarding which leader should receive the primary mandate, though the president is not bound to designate the head of the largest party. Herzog's selection will hinge on determining which lawmaker holds the most viable path toward securing at least 61 Knesset votes. The chosen candidate will have an initial 28-day window to assemble a government, with the head of state holding authority to grant an extension of up to 14 days. Current parliamentary configurations suggest former military chief Gadi Eisenkot could secure more recommendations than Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

然而，由于埃森科特本人及其多数盟友已多次排除依赖阿拉伯政党组阁的方案，即使其获得首轮授权，在缺乏足够外部席位支撑的情况下，跨过半数门槛依然存在重重阻力。如果首位候选人组阁受挫，总统可改派另一人尝试；若第二位候选人同样未能成事，议会将在21天窗口期内尝试由61名议员联名推举一位成员接盘。倘若所有磋商途径均告失败，以色列将不得不面临议会解散并再次举行大选的局面，令政坛重回动荡。

Nevertheless, assembling a working administration remains a formidable hurdle because Eisenkot and key partners have pledged not to form a government that relies on Arab-led factions. Should the initial appointee fail to build a majority, Herzog can assign the mandate to an alternate candidate. If that effort also collapses, a 21-day period begins during which any group of 61 lawmakers can jointly nominate a Knesset member for the task. If all prescribed mechanisms fall short of producing an agreement, the country will face parliament dissolution and another national election, prolonged negotiations that could stretch over several months.