以色列举行10月7日后首次大选 投票率创1981年以来新高Israel Holds First Election Since October 7 Attacks with Historic Turnout

10月27日清晨，以色列各地的投票站向超过700万合格选民敞开大门。中央选举委员会代局长迪恩·利夫内通过电视声明通报，截至上午10点整，全国已有超过120万名选民投出选票，投票率达到16.68%。这一数据高于2022年选举同一时段记录的15.9%，成为自1981年以来以色列大选同期测得的最高投票比例。

Polling stations opened to more than 7 million eligible voters across Israel early Tuesday, October 27, yielding an unusually rapid early surge at the ballot box. Dean Livne, acting director general of Israel's Central Elections Committee, announced in a televised statement that more than 1.2 million citizens had cast their ballots by 10 a.m., pushing nationwide voter turnout to 16.68 percent.

早间时段涌现的高参与度出现在全国动员氛围之中。以色列中央选举委员会指出，前三小时的投票步伐创下了数十年来的新高。选民在多场持续冲突与安全问题笼罩下前往票站，各阵营均在清晨展开全力动员，力图打破议会席位长期胶着的格局。

The morning figure represents the highest participation rate recorded at this stage of an Israeli national election since 1981, surpassing the 15.9 percent turnout measured at the same three-hour mark during the 2022 vote. Across major cities and regional polling centers, both governing parties and opposition factions mobilized voters early against the backdrop of unresolved regional conflicts and security debates, as each political camp sought to break a projected parliamentary deadlock.

星期五公布的民意调查显示，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡与前军方总参谋长加迪·埃森科特的支持率旗鼓相当。内塔尼亚胡自1996年首次出任总理，再度执政必须依靠极右翼与超正统派政党组成的现有执政联盟，其盟友包括分别领导独立极右翼政党的伊塔马尔·本-格维尔和贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇。埃森科特则领导新成立的“雅沙尔党”，成为“变革阵营”的核心人物。该阵营联合了前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特、阿维格多·利伯曼两位持强硬安全立场的右翼人士，以及左翼前将领亚伊尔·戈兰，各方在意识形态上存在分歧，但以换下内塔尼亚胡为共同目标。

Polling published on Friday showed incumbent Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an almost neck-and-neck contest with former military chief Gadi Eisenkot. Netanyahu, who first took office as prime minister in 1996, relies for his political survival on the alliance of far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties that forms his current governing coalition, including far-right leaders Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. Eisenkot, heading the newly formed Yashar Party, serves as the primary figure in the opposing change bloc. That coalition brings together ideologically diverse figures who share the objective of unseating Netanyahu, including former prime minister Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman—both right-wing figures holding hardline security positions—alongside left-leaning former general Yair Golan.

以色列采用比例代表制，历史上历届政府均由多党联合组成。然而民调预测显示，内塔尼亚胡阵营与变革阵营均无法单独赢得组建多数政府所需的61个议会席位。由于各党派在组阁路线上界限分明，选举结果可能导致议会陷入僵局，进而开启持续数周甚至数月的艰难谈判。

Under Israel's proportional representation electoral system, single parties have never secured outright majorities, making coalition negotiations standard practice. However, pre-election projections show that neither Netanyahu's religious and ultranationalist bloc nor the anti-Netanyahu alliance is positioned to capture the 61 seats required to form a Knesset majority. With ideological and personal battle lines already drawn between the camps, the deadlock threatens to trigger protracted negotiations that could extend across weeks or months before a government takes shape.

本次选举在实质上成为对导致2023年10月7日袭击事件各项安全失误的问责公决。在那场以色列建国历史上最致命的袭击发生后，内塔尼亚胡一直拒绝承担个人责任，并抵制成立独立的国家调查委员会。他的内阁转而试图推行由政界主导任命的调查机制，这一方案招致大量遇难者家属的强烈反对。选战期间，关于安全责任归属的指控持续发酵，成为反对阵营攻击现任政府的核心依据。

The 2026 election has evolved into a national referendum on accountability for the intelligence and defense failures that enabled the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks, the deadliest assault in Israel's history. Decades-long leader Benjamin Netanyahu has persistently resisted calls to accept personal responsibility for the catastrophic security lapses and has refused to establish an independent state commission of inquiry. Instead, his cabinet proposed a politically appointed investigation, drawing fierce opposition from bereaved families who demand impartial scrutiny. Accusations surrounding systemic security breakdowns remained central to campaign arguments as rivals challenged the government's competence.

除安全问责外，选举还交织着袭击发生前就已爆发的深层社会矛盾。在2023年袭击前的数月里，数十万以色列民众曾走上街头抗议内塔尼亚胡推动的司法改革方案，批评人士指责改革削弱国家民主体制。该对抗随后波及以色列军方，大批预备役军人以中止志愿服役相威胁，引发外界对战备状态的担忧。尽管内部分裂对哈马斯决策的影响程度在各方间仍存争议，但批评者指责这场动荡向敌方展现了软弱，相关分歧经历三年持续深化，将大选演变成关于是否支持内塔尼亚胡的个人化对立。

The contest also exposed divisions that began well before the war. In the months leading up to October 7, hundreds of thousands of Israelis took to the streets to protest Netanyahu's proposed judicial overhaul, which critics argued would erode democratic checks and balances. The standoff quickly infected military cohesion when reservists threatened to withhold voluntary service, raising alarms over defense readiness. Some critics contended the internal discord signaled operational weakness to regional enemies, though the degree to which this influenced Hamas's planning remains contested. Three years later, those fractures have hardened, turning the ballot into an intensely personal verdict on Netanyahu.

持续八个月的对伊朗战事在本次大选中占据显著地位，成为衡量选民支持取向的关键议题。在投票日前一周，内塔尼亚胡向美国总统特朗普表示双方在伊朗事务上仍有“未完成的工作”。内塔尼亚胡还在本周发布的一段视频中站在导弹防御阵地旁，向德黑兰发出警告，称如果其对以色列发动袭击，将遭受毁灭性打击。与此同时，美国、伊朗与以色列近期均警告战火存在重新升温的风险，沙特阿拉伯、土耳其与巴基斯坦等国外交高官也在利雅得与德黑兰之间斡旋，试图阻止中东战火蔓延。

The ongoing eight-month conflict with Iran has exerted an extensive influence over voter calculations in Tuesday's balloting, establishing the terms for national defense policy going forward. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intensified his rhetoric toward Tehran in the lead-up to the election, having told U.S. President Trump a week earlier that the two allies have "a job to finish" in Iran. In a campaign video released this week, Netanyahu appeared alongside an air-defense missile battery to warn that Iran would face "a devastating blow" if it launched an assault against Israel. These exchanges unfolded alongside broader regional friction, marked by warnings from Washington, Tehran, and Jerusalem of potential re-escalation, even as diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan pursued de-escalation talks.

战事走向直接催生了执政联盟与反对力量在国防战略上的路线之争。以色列国防部长伊斯雷尔·卡茨呼应内塔尼亚胡数周以来的表态，向选民公开强调，本次投票是在两种安全范式之间做出决断：一种是立足于进攻、主动行动与决定性胜利的路线，另一种则是重回遏制与克制的政策模式。卡茨同时提到以色列此前两度打击伊朗并消灭关键威胁的目标，将执政党的强硬军事方针与反对派主张的相对克制立场相对立，以此巩固支持者的安全信任。

The regional confrontation has also brought a fundamental strategic divide into sharp relief. Echoing arguments advanced by Netanyahu in preceding weeks, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz framed the ballot as a decisive choice between two distinct security paradigms: one centered on an offensive posture, continuous initiative, and decisive military victory, contrasted against an approach grounded in strategic restraint and containment. Pointing to Israel's two direct strikes on Iranian targets, Katz presented the governing coalition's offensive stance against the perceived caution of rivals, turning the military posture toward Tehran into a central pillar of the electoral contest.

代表约占全国五分之一人口的阿拉伯政党联盟在理论上可能充当组阁的“造王者”。由哈达什党、塔阿勒党和巴拉德党组成的“联合名单”领导人艾哈迈德·提比与家人在北部泰贝村投票，阿拉伯政党呼吁选民积极参与，以期在微弱选情中发挥决定作用。然而，除一个主要犹太政党外，其余政党均公开拒绝与阿拉伯政党组阁合作，使其成为造王者的政治路径面临重重阻力。

Arab party blocs, representing a community that accounts for roughly one-fifth of Israel's population, could theoretically emerge as pivotal kingmakers in breaking the projected parliamentary deadlock. Ahmad Tibi, a leader of the Joint List coalition comprising Hadash, Taal, and Balad, cast his ballot alongside his family in the northern Arab town of Taibe, as Arab-led lists pushed for high voter turnout to maximize their leverage. However, their practical path to coalition influence remains tightly constrained, as all but one of the leading Jewish parties have explicitly ruled out partnering with them to establish a government.

右翼执政盟友同样展开政治动员，极右翼国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在西岸基里亚特阿尔巴定居点投票，其领导的犹太力量党民调走高，他更公开表达出任国防部长的意愿。各地民间情绪则呈现鲜明对照：在靠近黎巴嫩边界的内塔尼亚胡传统票仓谢莫纳镇，一名男子将埃森科特的竞选海报踢倒并撕毁；而在特拉维夫，部分10月7日袭击遇难者家属与前人质在票站开门前举行了默哀仪式，悼念逝者并诉求问责。

Simultaneously, key figures within the incumbent right-wing alliance underscored their political ambitions as balloting got underway. Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, whose Jewish Power party gained ground in pre-election polling, cast his vote in the West Bank settlement of Kiryat Arba and publicly stated his aspiration to secure the defense portfolio. Grassroots sentiments varied widely across the country: in Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu-leaning stronghold near the Lebanese border, an individual kicked and tore down a campaign poster of Eisenkot, while in Tel Aviv, families of October 7 victims and former hostages gathered before polling stations opened to hold a solemn moment of silence.