香港或再上调2026年GDP预测 陈茂波指全年增长料创五年新高Hong Kong May Raise 2026 GDP Forecast as Growth Poised for Five-Year High, Chan Says

陈茂波表示，虽然第三季度经济数据尚未正式公布，但本港出口在该季度依然保持强劲。特区政府正持续密切追踪各项数据变化与发展趋势，认为不仅在第三季度，迈入第四季度之际整体增长动能同样相当稳固。2026年全年经济增幅具备实现过去五年最强表现的潜力，促使官方考虑再度调高早前设定的全年增长目标。

Although official third-quarter figures have not yet been released, Chan said that export momentum remained very strong during that period. He noted that the government has been closely tracking changes and trends in incoming data, emphasizing that the economic momentum remains robust not only in the third quarter but also as the city enters the fourth quarter. These sustained conditions position 2026 to potentially deliver Hong Kong's strongest full-year economic growth in five years, opening the path for another upward adjustment to the government's official projections.

特区政府曾在8月基于第二季度4.3%的扩幅上调全年预测，参考上半年优于预期的经济表现以及对近期的评估，将预期区间设定为3.5%至4.5%。法国外贸银行高级经济学家吴卓殷分析指出，按当前走势，香港今年全年增长有望达到4.4%，与政府现有预测上限高度吻合，特区政府接下来有可能把全年的增幅预测区间进一步提升至4%至5%。

The administration had already lifted its full-year growth outlook in August to a range between 3.5 and 4.5 percent following a 4.3 percent expansion in the second quarter, citing a stronger-than-expected first-half outturn and near-term prospects. Gary Ng Cheuk-yan, a senior economist at Natixis Corporate and Investment Bank, noted that Hong Kong's full-year growth is poised to reach approximately 4.4 percent on its current trajectory, aligning closely with the government's projection and suggesting authorities could lift the forecast range to between 4 and 5 percent.

在对外贸易方面，受人工智能相关产品需求拉动，香港9月份出口货值达到7626亿港元，按年激增64.9%，创下40多年来的最高单月增幅纪录，并写下连续20个月录得双位数增长的成绩。而在今年上半年，货物出口实质按年上升28.9%，私人消费开支增长2.8%，整体投资额也增加4.4%，共同构筑起上半年5.1%的整体经济扩幅。

On the external trade front, Hong Kong's goods exports surged 64.9 percent year on year in September to HK$762.6 billion, propelled by global demand for artificial intelligence-related products. The performance marked the fastest monthly expansion in more than four decades and extended the city's run of double-digit trade gains to a 20th consecutive month. This extended the strong momentum recorded in the first half of the year, when goods exports climbed 28.9 percent in real terms, overall investment rose 4.4 percent, and private consumption edged up 2.8 percent to support an overall 5.1 percent half-yearly economic expansion.

除了外贸扩张，访港旅游与线下盛事同样提供了动能。本港上半年共接待旅客2671万人次，较去年同期上升13%。美酒佳肴巡礼等大型活动吸引了大批入境客流。陈茂波指出，即将开幕的香港金融科技周将吸引更多访客，随后的国际金融领袖投资峰会更将汇集全球至少120位金融机构董事长与行政总裁，持续带动商务交往。

Alongside the trade rebound, inbound tourism and major events added momentum to local activity. Hong Kong welcomed 26.71 million visitors in the first half of the year, a 13 percent increase compared to the same period in 2025. Staging events such as the Wine and Dine Festival helped draw substantial crowds. Paul Chan noted that the upcoming Hong Kong FinTech Week is set to bring in additional visitors, while the Global Financial Leaders' Investment Summit will assemble at least 120 chairmen and chief executives from prominent international financial institutions.

尽管出口强劲且整体物价维持温和，陈茂波强调地缘政治局势仍持续带来风险，不仅推升国际油价与通胀压力，预计延续至明年的高利率环境也给香港房地产市场及宏观经济造成负担。他指出特区政府对潜在金融风险保持高度警惕，并呼吁投资者在各项投资决策中审慎评估风险。

Even as foreign shipments remain robust and consumer price increases stay modest, Paul Chan underscored that geopolitical uncertainties continue to pose tangible economic challenges. These international tensions threaten to push up global crude oil costs and fuel broader inflationary pressures, while domestic borrowing costs are expected to stay elevated well into next year, placing sustained downward pressure on both the local property sector and overall activity. Chan stated that the administration remains highly vigilant regarding potential financial risks and urged market participants to exercise caution across all facets of their investments.

在内需层面，法国外贸银行高级经济学家吴卓殷认为，虽然全球人工智能需求将在第四季度继续推动半导体超级周期并支持外贸，但私人消费依然面临持续阻力。他分析指出，股票市场带来的财富效应有所减弱，加上新增就业创造放缓以及持续高企的借贷利率，正在共同抑制本地消费动能。

Looking at internal demand, Natixis senior economist Gary Ng Cheuk-yan noted that while worldwide artificial intelligence demand will continue fueling the semiconductor super cycle and buoying trade through the final quarter, private consumption confronts lingering headwinds. Ng observed that household spending faces mounting constraints from a diminished wealth effect tied to stock markets, slower pace in job creation, and the dampening influence of high interest rates on discretionary budgets.