高盛预测炼油产能受限将推高柴油价格至2027年Goldman Sachs Forecasts Elevated Diesel Prices Through 2027 as Refining Strains Persist

高盛在9月21日发布的全球炼油超级周期报告中指出，尽管霍尔木兹海峡原油运输逐步恢复使布伦特原油价格趋于每桶80美元附近，但成品油相对于原油的溢价将长期处于异常高位。高盛预计2027年柴油和航空煤油裂解价差将维持在每桶40美元上方，达到过去通常20美元均值的两倍以上，以抑制过度消费。

In its global Refining Super Cycle report published on September 21, Goldman Sachs projected that refined product premiums over crude oil will stay unusually elevated even as Brent crude stabilizes near $80 per barrel alongside normalizing crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank expects global crack spreads for diesel and jet fuel to average above $40 per barrel in 2027, more than double their historical norm of around $20 per barrel, to curb excessive consumption.

尼基尔·班达里向CNBC表示，全球炼油系统面临极其严苛的运转压力，如果明年全球需求出现任何反弹，炼油产能利用率将不得不攀升至过去二十年来的最高水平。高盛分析认为，通过维持高昂的终端燃油价格来实现一定程度的需求破坏，是防止下游采购需求直接击垮受限炼油体系的核心机制。

Nikhil Bhandari told CNBC that the global refining system faces severe operating limits, noting that if demand rebounds next year, global refinery utilization will have to hit its highest rate in two decades. Goldman Sachs views persistently high product prices as essential to enforce ongoing demand destruction, preventing recovering consumption from overwhelming an already constrained processing infrastructure.

高盛在报告中预计，2026年全球炼油行业将再次经历负产能增长，中国以外地区的炼油产能预计将收缩约30万桶/日。受此影响，全球成品油库存到2026年底可能跌破2015年以来的最低可用天数水平。高盛指出，波斯湾原油出口的恢复预计不会显著改善成品油供应，因为柴油、汽油和航空煤油的跨区运输仍受到严格限制。

Goldman Sachs projects that 2026 will bring another year of negative refining capacity growth, with processing capacity outside China expected to contract by approximately 300,000 barrels per day. As a consequence, the bank estimates that global refined product inventories could end 2026 below the lowest days-of-supply level recorded since 2015. Goldman noted that the recovery of Gulf crude exports is not expected to materially improve finished fuel availability, as shipments of diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel remain constrained.

除长期产能收缩外，主要产油区的运营障碍加剧了供应短缺。尼基尔·班达里指出，中东地区目前约有200万桶/日的炼油产能处于停运状态，而俄罗斯部分设施受损减少了柴油产出。与此同时，美国炼油厂此前一直保持高负荷运转以弥补全球产能缺口，后续将不得不执行此前推迟的检修维护，这将暂时压低美国炼厂的加工开工率。

Compounding structural capacity contractions are acute operational disruptions across key refining hubs. Nikhil Bhandari noted that approximately 2 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern refining capacity remains offline, while damaged Russian processing facilities have reduced global diesel supplies. In addition, U.S. refineries that have been running at elevated rates to compensate for international supply deficits will soon need to carry out deferred maintenance, temporarily lowering domestic refinery runs.

在炼油产能受限的同时，终端消费并未出现永久性萎缩。经纪商中信里昂证券（CLSA）资源与能源研究分析师巴登·摩尔在致CNBC的电子邮件中指出，近期市场的表观疲软并不意味着底层成品油需求已经消失，实际消费依然基本保持完整。买家此前主要通过积极管理商业库存、动用应急储备、适度削减用量以及优化炼油配置来平衡现货市场供需。

Alongside global refining constraints, underlying consumption has not suffered permanent destruction. Baden Moore, resources and energy research analyst at brokerage CLSA, told CNBC in an email that recent market softness does not reflect permanently lost demand, noting that underlying oil-product demand remains largely intact. Commercial buyers and governments have instead balanced physical market tightness through active inventory management, drawing down existing strategic and commercial reserves, curtailing discretionary consumption, and pursuing refinery optimization.

摩尔进一步分析认为，在维持日常消费的同时将耗尽的全球库存恢复至正常水平，整个补库过程可能需要长达两年的时间。随着多国政府与商业机构在未来数年逐步启动库存重建，持续的补库需求将与紧张的炼厂加工能力形成长期竞争，进而对柴油等中间馏分油价格构成持续的底部支撑。

Moore added that simultaneously meeting active baseline demand and replenishing global inventories from historic lows could take up to two years. As commercial entities and state authorities embark on multi-year efforts to rebuild depleted buffer stocks, this persistent restocking requirement is poised to compete directly against tightly constrained refining throughput, providing multi-year upward support for diesel and other refined fuel prices through 2027.

七国集团于上周五达成协议，决定在四个月内释放1亿桶原油和成品油储备，其中前20天将重点前置释放大量柴油。受该消息影响，欧洲柴油期货价格应声下跌5.75%。然而，能源行业专家与高管普遍对释储能否在长期内改善成品油供应并平抑价格持悲观态度。

The Group of Seven agreed on Friday to release 100 million barrels of crude and refined products over four months, featuring a front-loaded substantial diesel release within the initial 20 days. The policy decision triggered a 5.75% decline in European gasoil futures. However, industry analysts and energy executives expressed doubt that this supplementary supply would materially improve refined product availability or moderate prices over the long term.

沙特阿美首席执行官阿明·纳赛尔在周一指出，紧急储备的投放或许能帮助市场度过一个冬季，但无法解决长期供应短缺。法国外贸险企业科法斯亚太区首席经济学家欧伯纳在给CNBC的声明中同样表示，此类释储措施的影响是暂时性的而非结构性的。中信里昂证券的摩尔进一步说明，紧急释储仅能缓解流动性短缺，无法解决底层库存不足的问题；释储实质上是在消耗而非重建库存，将使未来的补库需求成为支撑价格的长期因素。

Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Officer Amin Nasser remarked on Monday that emergency reserves might buy market participants a winter, but they cannot resolve long-term supply shortages. In an emailed statement to CNBC, Bernard Aw, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Coface, agreed that the impact of the release is temporary rather than structural. CLSA's Baden Moore noted that emergency releases only solve immediate liquidity problems rather than the underlying stock deficit, pointing out that depleting strategic reserves consumes inventory rather than rebuilding it, thereby turning multi-year restocking into a sustained driver of demand.