全球债市抛售放缓 欧洲股市上扬原油价格回落Global Bond Selloff Pauses as European Stocks Advance and Oil Falls

在经历前一交易日的大幅上行后，美国国债市场的抛售压力在周五出现降温迹象。基准10年期美国国债收益率微幅上升不足1个基点至5.17%，此前该期限收益率曾在周四攀升至2007年6月以来的最高水平。超长期限方面，30年期国债收益率保持平盘在5.463%，周四该收益率曾升至2004年以来的未见高位。与此同时，对利率政策变动更为敏感的2年期美国国债收益率变动同样有限，维持在4.899%附近。

Selling pressure across the U.S. sovereign debt market eased on Friday following sharp upward momentum in the prior trading session. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield rose less than one basis point to 5.17%, after climbing on Thursday to its highest level since June 2007. At the longer end of the curve, the 30-year Treasury bond yield held flat at 5.463%, having previously surged to rates not seen since 2004. The policy-sensitive 2-year Treasury note yield was also little changed, hovering at 4.899%.

此轮债券收益率的短暂企稳为经历震荡的全球金融市场提供了喘息机会。此前长短期国债收益率连续冲高，主要反映出投资者对借贷成本长期维持高位的持续担忧。随着周五各主要期限美国国债收益率在历史相对高位窄幅整理，此前持续主导行情的单边抛售势头有所放缓，市场参与者开始将焦点转向跨资产表现以及能源价格回调带来的情绪修复。

The leveling off across maturities brought a temporary reprieve to financial markets that had been unsettled by multi-year peaks in sovereign borrowing costs. The recent surge in long-dated and short-dated yields had reflected broader investor adjustments to prolonged high-rate conditions. With yields consolidating in narrow ranges on Friday, the relentless debt liquidation paused, allowing market participants to assess broader cross-asset stability alongside a pullback in crude oil prices.

欧洲股市在周五早盘普遍走强，原油价格的持续回落为多数板块提供了上行动能。泛欧斯托克600指数在开盘后不久上涨近0.7%，多数细分行业板块以及欧洲所有主要证券交易所均处于上涨区域。在此轮反弹带动下，泛欧斯托克600指数有望录得0.15%的单周涨幅。

European equities traded broadly higher on Friday morning, drawing support as retreating crude oil prices improved market sentiment across multiple sectors. The pan-European Stoxx 600 index gained nearly 0.7% shortly after the opening bell, with most industry groups and all major national bourses trading in positive territory. Following the morning advance, the benchmark index was on track to secure a weekly gain of 0.15%.

不过，能源板块因油价走低逆势承压，主要欧洲石油巨头的股价在早盘交易中走弱。英国石油公司（BP）股价跌幅超过2%，壳牌（Shell）下跌0.4%，法国道达尔能源（TotalEnergies）亦下滑0.5%。大宗商品价格走软在削弱油气企业收益预期的同时，提振了欧洲更广泛市场关于通胀和成本压力有所缓解的情绪。

In contrast to the broader market advance, shares of European energy companies lost ground during early trading as oil futures continued their pullback. BP shares fell by more than 2%, while Shell declined 0.4% and France's TotalEnergies slid 0.5%. The retreat across major oil producers reflected softer crude benchmarks, even as the wider equity landscape benefited from the prospect of easing input costs.

周五亚太地区主要股市呈现分化走势。日本日经225指数表现强劲，收盘上涨1.30%至66364.20点。科技板块与甲骨文日本分公司（Oracle Corp Japan）的大涨为东京股市提供了主要支撑，该公司股价周五涨幅超过7%，主因其公布的财年第一季度销售额与利润创历史新高，其中6月至8月季度净销售额同比增长13%至748.6亿日元，营业利润增长22.7%至259.2亿日元，净利润攀升23.2%至182.5亿日元，云业务实现强劲扩张。

Asia-Pacific equity markets closed mixed on Friday, with Japan outperforming its regional peers. The benchmark Nikkei 225 surged 1.30% to settle at 66,364.20, bolstered by strength in technology shares and a sharp rally in Oracle Corp Japan. Shares of the Japanese unit jumped over 7% after delivering record first-quarter financial results driven by strong cloud business growth. For the June to August period, Oracle Japan reported a 13% year-on-year increase in net sales to 74.86 billion yen ($472 million), an operating profit jump of 22.7% to 25.92 billion yen, and a 23.2% rise in net profit to 18.25 billion yen.

与日本股市的走强不同，区域内其他主要交易市场多数走弱。香港恒生指数在交易最后一个小时下跌1.21%，早盘开盘即下跌1.46%，主要受到金融、基础材料和科技板块下跌超1%的拖累。澳大利亚标普/ASX 200指数下跌0.43%至8665点。与此同时，中国大陆和韩国证券市场均因公共假期休市，亚太整体交易量因此受到一定影响。

Elsewhere across the Asia-Pacific region, major equity benchmarks faced downward pressure. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index fell 1.21% in the final hour of trading, having opened 1.46% lower due to broad retreats across financials, basic materials, and technology sectors, which each dropped over 1%. Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.43% to close at 8,665 points. Trading activity across the region was partially thinned as stock exchanges in mainland China and South Korea were closed for holidays.

大宗商品市场的价格回调与中东地缘局势的最新谈判动态直接相关。根据路透社援引一名伊朗高级官员的报道，美伊谈判代表正在纽约讨论一项旨在结束波斯湾僵局的分阶段协议。该官员表示，最现实的途径是德黑兰允许霍尔木兹海峡正常通航，换取美国终止海上封锁。尽管美伊双方曾在6月17日签署的谅解备忘录中达成过类似安排，但该协议随后在重燃的冲突中破裂。受谈判消息影响，11月交割的布伦特原油期货下跌1%至每桶93.66美元，11月交割的WTI原油期货下跌0.68%至每桶105.86美元。

The retreat in energy prices was directly tied to reports surrounding diplomatic contacts over Middle East tensions. According to a Reuters report citing a senior Iranian official, U.S. and Iranian negotiators in New York have been discussing a phased deal to resolve the standoff in the Persian Gulf. The official stated that the most realistic path forward involves Tehran permitting navigation through the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the United States lifting its naval blockade. While both nations had agreed to an identical framework under a memorandum of understanding on June 17, that agreement collapsed amid renewed hostilities, leaving the differences in the current round of talks unclear. Following the report, November Brent crude futures declined 1% to $93.66 per barrel, and November WTI crude fell 0.68% to $105.86 per barrel.

在欧洲主要经济体方面，能源成本上涨对家庭预期的负面影响正在显现。纽伦堡市场决策研究所（NIM）与GfK联合发布的消费者信心报告显示，德国9月份消费者信心遭遇明显挫折，家庭收入预期降至4月份以来的最低水平。NIM消费者信心主管罗尔夫·比尔克尔指出，多数家庭预计高昂的能源价格将削弱自身购买力，因而对未来12个月的收入前景持更为怀疑的态度。

Meanwhile, elevated energy costs showed tangible economic fallout in Europe's largest economy. A joint Consumer Climate report by the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM) and GfK revealed that German consumer sentiment experienced a significant setback in September, with household income expectations dropping to their lowest level since April. Rolf Bürkl, head of consumer climate at NIM, stated that most households expect high energy prices to erode their purchasing power, driving deeper skepticism regarding their income expectations over the next twelve months.