刚果（金）前总统卡比拉出任新反叛联盟领导人Former DR Congo President Kabila Takes Helm of New Rebel Alliance

在周一于戈马卡比拉住所举行的新闻发布会上，新组建的反叛联盟“国家重塑阵线”正式公布其组织架构与行动纲领。该组织发布的视频画面显示，卡比拉与其他反叛派系领导人一同签署了联盟成立文件。联盟顾问克洛德·伊巴兰基表示，该联盟旨在协调各方抵抗力量，动用包括武力在内的一切必要手段终结刚果（金）的“暴政”。

At a press conference on Monday held at Kabila's residence in Goma, the newly unveiled rebel alliance, the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN), formally presented its command structure and operational mandate. Video released by the movement showed Kabila signing founding declaration documents alongside other faction chiefs. Coalition adviser Claude Ibalanky explained that the group aims to coordinate resistance forces to end what it termed tyranny across the Democratic Republic of Congo by all necessary means, including the use of force.

根据现场公布的人事架构，M23军事指挥官苏尔塔尼·马肯加将出任卡比拉的四名副手之一，前刚果河联盟领导人科内利·南加亦位列副领导人之席。其余两名副职同样来自该联盟体系，这一体系去年在东部矿产丰富地区夺取了大片土地。此次人事架构的公开明确了卡比拉与该武装派系的直接联合，此前他曾否认与M23存在任何关联。

Under the leadership arrangement detailed at the residence, M23 commander Sultani Makenga will serve as one of four designated deputies under Kabila, joined in the deputy ranks by former Congo River Alliance leader Corneille Nangaa. The other two deputies also originate from the allied rebel network that seized vast swathes of the mineral-rich eastern territory last year. This formal unveiling provides clear confirmation of Kabila's direct participation in the armed movement, following his previous public denials of ties to M23.

卡比拉与齐塞克迪的政治同盟在权力交接后迅速走向破裂。齐塞克迪在2019年1月一场备受争议的选举后就职，两人起初达成了非正式的权力分享安排，但随后双方关系恶化，导致卡比拉于2023年陷入自我流亡状态，直至去年返回戈马。在此期间，刚果（金）一家军事法院认定卡比拉与卢旺达及M23存在勾结，缺席判处其叛国罪、战争罪和危害人类罪死刑。卡比拉坚称这些诉讼完全出自政治动机并否认指控，而美国今年早些时候也以涉嫌资助叛乱团体为由对其施加了经济制裁。

The political partnership between Kabila and Tshisekedi fractured rapidly after the 2019 transition. Tshisekedi assumed the presidency in January 2019 following a disputed election, initially forming an informal power-sharing arrangement with Kabila. The alliance later deteriorated, driving Kabila into self-imposed exile in 2023 before his return to Goma last year. Amid the escalating feud, a Congolese military court sentenced Kabila to death in absentia on charges of treason, war crimes, and crimes against humanity, finding that he collaborated with Rwanda and M23. Kabila dismissed the case as politically motivated, while the United States imposed sanctions on him earlier this year over his alleged role in financing rebel organizations.

在正式加入反叛联盟前夕，卡比拉公开对齐塞克迪政府提出严厉抨击。在上周五的讲话中，他指责现政府完全无视他去年提出的多项方案，包括旨在解决东部冲突的建议。卡比拉进一步声称金沙萨当局正在破坏宪政秩序、导致国家经济管理不善、未能有效改善整体安全局势，并且对政界反对派人士和军官实施了任意逮捕。截至目前，刚果（金）中央政府尚未对卡比拉提出的这一系列指控作出公开回应。

Prior to taking command of the armed coalition, Kabila leveled extensive criticisms against Tshisekedi's leadership. In an address delivered on Friday, the former president claimed that the government disregarded proposals he had submitted last year, including blueprints intended to resolve eastern Congo's security crisis. Kabila also accused Kinshasa of subverting constitutional rule, mismanaging the economy, failing to provide public safety, and carrying out arbitrary arrests of military officers and political adversaries. The Congolese government has issued no public response to Kabila's specific accusations.

在刚果（金）东部战线上，反叛势力已确立对多个关键战略要地的实际控制。相关派系自2025年1月起控制戈马，并掌握了布卡武、当地机场以及通往卢旺达和乌干达的重要边境口岸。联合国、美国政府与刚果（金）当局指控卢旺达直接支持并控制M23武装组织。卢旺达对此予以否认，坚称其在刚果（金）东部的军事存在纯属针对刚果境内武装团伙威胁的防御性举措。此前旨在化解东部冲突的多次和平谈判均未取得实质突破，交战各方相互指责对方破坏对话协议。

On the ground in eastern DR Congo, rebel forces have solidified control over several vital operational hubs. Allied factions have held Goma since January 2025 alongside Bukavu, commanding regional airports and strategic border crossings linking the territory to Rwanda and Uganda. The United Nations, Western governments, and Kinshasa accuse Rwanda of actively backing and directing M23 rebels. Rwanda denies supporting the group, maintaining that its cross-border military presence constitutes a defensive measure to counter threats posed by Congolese armed organizations. Previous talks aimed at resolving the regional crisis have collapsed, with both sides trading blame for the deadlock.

反叛联盟的组建引发外界对东部军事对抗扩大的高度担忧。加拿大渥太华大学研究员伊冯·穆亚分析指出，公开发表此类政治军事联合声明通常伴随后续筹划行动，战场局势面临升级可能。与此同时，半岛电视台特派记者指出，卡比拉具有长期领导军队的从军履历，各方担忧政府军现役士兵可能因此转投叛军阵营，而金沙萨中央政府迄今仍未能有效击退反叛武装力量并收复东部失地。

The formal emergence of the alliance has heightened concerns over a broader military escalation across the eastern provinces. Yvon Muya, a researcher at the University of Ottawa, observed that such an overt political-military declaration is typically coupled with prepared operational steps, warning of an impending confrontation. Additionally, field observers note that Kabila's background as a former army commander creates risks of potential defections among Congolese government soldiers to his coalition, particularly as Kinshasa's forces have failed to repel rebel units from held positions.

新反叛联盟的组建对近期的外交调解努力带来阻力。刚果（金）政府代表原定于11月在卡塔尔与M23武装会面举行和谈，但分析人士指出，反叛力量整合为统一战线可能削弱这一接触进程。此外，外部和平斡旋同样面临复杂局面，金融时报报道提及卡比拉此举可能会阻碍美国促成和平的外交行动。

The establishment of the rebel coalition introduces complications for upcoming diplomatic efforts to broker a settlement. Representatives from the Congolese government were scheduled to meet with the M23 movement in Qatar for talks in November, but analysts caution that the newly unified front could undermine that negotiation process. The development is also viewed as likely to hinder broader efforts by the United States to mediate peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

除了东部战场的不确定性，金沙萨围绕最高权力的宪法争议持续升温。齐塞克迪在今年5月曾表示，鉴于持续的军事冲突，原定于2028年举行的大选可能无法如期进行。他还公开暗示，若民意支持，自己可能会寻求第三个总统任期。此后刚果（金）议会通过了一项法案，或为废除两届任期上限的修宪公投铺平道路。上个月，首都金沙萨爆发了抗议修改宪法限制的群众示威，安全部门与抗议者在街头发生了直接冲突。

Beyond the eastern front, deep political divisions have intensified over presidential term limits in Kinshasa. Tshisekedi indicated in May that the general election scheduled for 2028 might not take place due to the ongoing armed conflict. The president also stated he could pursue a third term if the population desired it. Parliament subsequently approved legislation that could facilitate a referendum to lift the constitutional two-term restriction, an initiative that provoked street clashes last month between law enforcement and demonstrators protesting the proposed amendments in the capital.