极右翼候选人德拉埃斯普里埃拉领跑哥伦比亚总统大选首轮投票Far-Right Candidate De la Espriella Leads Colombia's Presidential Election First Round

在2026年5月31日举行的哥伦比亚总统选举首轮投票中，数百万选民前往投票站投下了选票。根据已统计的98%的选票结果，极右翼候选人阿贝拉多·德拉埃斯普里埃拉以44%的得票率位居第一。左翼参议员伊万·塞佩达则以41%的得票率紧随其后。由于首轮投票中没有任何候选人获得绝对多数，这两位政治立场截然不同的候选人将在2026年6月21日举行的第二轮决选一决高下。

Millions of Colombian voters headed to the polls on Sunday, May 31, 2026, to cast their ballots in a high-stakes presidential election. With 98% of the votes officially counted on Sunday, far-right candidate Abelardo de la Espriella secured the lead with 44% of the vote. Progressive Senator Iván Cepeda, representing the ruling Pacto Histórico party, followed in second place with 41% of the vote. Because no candidate secured an outright majority, these two strikingly different candidates are set to face each other in a decisive runoff election scheduled for June 21, 2026.

在此次共有14名候选人参选的总统选举中，右翼参议员帕洛玛·瓦伦西亚获得了前总统阿尔瓦罗·乌里韦的支持，并将自己定位为中右翼候选人。最终，瓦伦西亚以7%的得票率在首轮投票中位列第三，与前两名候选人拉开了明显的差距。随着首轮计票工作接近尾声，德拉埃斯普里埃拉与塞佩达之间的决选对决已正式确立。

The presidential ballot featured a total of 14 candidates, though the race ultimately narrowed down to a few prominent names. Right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia, who was backed by former President Álvaro Uribe and positioned herself as a center-right candidate, finished in a distant third place with 7% of the vote. The official results established a clear gap between the top two contenders and the rest of the field, setting up a highly anticipated head-to-head matchup for the second round.

作为一名作风强硬的律师，阿贝拉多·德拉埃斯普里埃拉在哥伦比亚总统大选的准备阶段迅速崛起。他在竞选中的言论和视觉风格上，都刻意模仿了美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普以及萨尔瓦多总统纳伊布·布克尔。通过迎合拉丁美洲地区对于严厉打击犯罪集团日益高涨的呼声，德拉埃斯普里埃拉成功赢得了大量选民的支持，并在首轮投票中一举夺得近44%的选票，其最终得票表现明显超出了大选前的最新民意调查预期。

Abelardo de la Espriella, a bombastic lawyer, rapidly gained traction in the lead-up to the presidential election. He carefully modeled his campaign rhetoric and optics after former U.S. President Donald Trump and El Salvador's President Nayib Bukele. By capitalizing on a growing public appetite across Latin America for heavy-handed crackdowns on criminal groups, De la Espriella successfully built a strong base of support, capturing nearly 44% of the vote in the first round and significantly overperforming compared to the most recent pre-election polls.

德拉埃斯普里埃拉的竞选主张高度聚焦于安全议题。他向选民承诺将对犯罪集团实施铁腕打击，这一策略在治安问题备受关注的哥伦比亚社会中引发了强烈共鸣。这种将强硬安全政策与民粹主义风格相结合的竞选路线，不仅帮助他在短时间内汇聚了极高的人气，也使他在首轮投票中成功反超了在竞选期间民调一直保持领先的左翼候选人塞佩达。

De la Espriella's campaign platform focused heavily on security issues, promising voters a severe crackdown on criminal organizations. This law-and-order message resonated deeply with Colombian voters, allowing the right-wing candidate to build rapid political momentum. His combination of tough-on-crime policies and populist styling ultimately propelled him past progressive Senator Iván Cepeda, who had consistently led the polling throughout the campaign but finished second in the actual vote.

首轮投票的结果对位列第二的进步派参议员伊万·塞佩达及其盟友、现任总统古斯塔沃·佩特罗构成了沉重的政治打击。作为执政党“历史盟约”的候选人，塞佩达在整个竞选期间的民意调查中一直保持领先，但最终在实际投票中被德拉埃斯普里埃拉反超。这一结果不仅打破了执政党延续其政策主导地位的预期，也让现任政府的政治路线面临严峻的考验。

The first-round outcome dealt a significant political blow to the second-place finisher, progressive Senator Iván Cepeda, and his close ally, sitting President Gustavo Petro. As the candidate of the ruling Pacto Histórico party, Cepeda had consistently led the polling throughout the presidential campaign, making his second-place finish behind De la Espriella a major setback for the current administration and its political agenda.

在周日晚间首轮计票结果明朗后，塞佩达和总统佩特罗均对此次选举结果公开提出了质疑。然而，无论是塞佩达还是总统佩特罗，在发表相关质疑言论时，都没有提供任何支持其指控的具体证据。这种在无证据情况下对选举结果的质疑，为即将在6月21日举行的第二轮决选增添了更多的不确定性与紧张气氛。

Following the release of the election results on Sunday night, both Senator Cepeda and President Petro publicly questioned the legitimacy of the voting outcomes. However, neither the progressive candidate nor the president provided any supporting evidence to substantiate their claims. This challenge to the official results has heightened political tensions as the country prepares for the upcoming runoff election.

此次首轮投票的实际结果与选前的民意调查数据存在明显的偏差。根据大选前一周公布的一项AtlasIntel民意调查（该调查基于4531次访谈），左翼候选人塞佩达原本在首轮投票中以38.7%的微弱优势领先，而德拉埃斯普里埃拉的预测得票率为37.3%。当时，这两位候选人的支持率均达到了右翼候选人瓦伦西亚（14.3%）的两倍以上。然而，最终的计票结果显示德拉埃斯普里埃拉实现了反超，其得票表现显著超出了民调的预测。

The actual results of the first-round vote diverged notably from pre-election polling data. An AtlasIntel poll published the week before the election, which was based on 4,531 interviews, had projected progressive Senator Iván Cepeda leading the first round with a razor-thin margin of 38.7%, compared to Abelardo de la Espriella's 37.3%. At the time, both leading candidates held support levels that more than doubled the 14.3% polling share of right-wing Senator Paloma Valencia. However, the final ballot count revealed that De la Espriella significantly overperformed these expectations to take the lead.

针对德拉埃斯普里埃拉在首轮选举中的领先优势，智库学者从地缘政治和地区政治趋势的角度进行了分析。英国皇家国际事务研究所美洲高级研究员克里斯托弗·萨巴蒂尼在接受媒体采访时指出，这位亲特朗普律师的崛起并处于领先地位，实际上是所谓的“唐罗主义”在拉丁美洲党派政治中再次抬头并发挥作用的一部分。这一外部观察视角表明，拉美地区对强硬打击犯罪集团的渴望，正在重塑该地区的政治版图。

Analyzing De la Espriella's strong performance, external observers have placed his rise within a broader regional and geopolitical context. Christopher Sabatini, a Senior Research Fellow on the Americas at Chatham House, stated in an interview that the pro-Trump lawyer's lead in Colombia's presidential race represents a manifestation of the so-called 'Donroe' doctrine asserting itself in partisan politics across Latin America. This perspective highlights how the growing regional demand for heavy-handed security measures is actively reshaping partisan dynamics.