德国选择党赢得萨克森-安哈尔特州选举 默茨称基民盟遭数十年来最惨失利Far-Right AfD Wins State Election as Merz Laments Historic CDU Defeat

在2026年9月6日举行的萨克森-安哈尔特州选举中，德国选择党在单一选举周期内将得票率推升至44%，由州头号候选人乌尔里希·齐格蒙德率领该党拿下第一。党联席领导人爱丽丝·魏德尔随后将该成果定性为“历史性的”，并表示该党正朝着执政地位迈进。

In the state vote held on September 6, 2026, the Alternative for Germany surged to 44% of ballots in a single electoral cycle under top regional candidate Ulrich Siegmund, finishing in first place. Party co-leader Alice Weidel characterized the outcome as historic, as the party advanced closer toward governing authority in the former East German state.

总理默茨领导的基民盟在本次地方投票中直接失去了超过一半的2021年选票，面临数十年未有的严重失利。默茨公开指出，这绝非能够轻描淡写跳过的地方事件，该结果已从根本上动摇了党内基石，其所带来的政治震荡范围远超前东德地区本身。

The Christian Democratic Union led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz saw outright loss of more than half of its 2021 voter support, marking what Merz described as the party's most severe electoral reversal in decades. Merz emphasized that the outcome cannot be treated as a routine event, observing that it shook the party to its foundation with repercussions extending far outside the regional boundary.

德国政坛长期依赖旨在将极右翼排除在执政联盟之外的“防火墙”（Brandmauer）政策。随着德国选择党在地方层级不断扩大票源，这一机制正经受议会席位数学计算与基本政治原则的双重考验。选择党此前已成为联邦议院第一大反对党，这让将该党崛起单纯视为前东德地区特有现象的“东部例外论”越来越难以维持。

Germany's long-standing "Brandmauer" policy, designed to bar far-right factions from participating in governing coalitions, faces intensifying strain from both parliamentary arithmetic and fundamental political principles. Because the Alternative for Germany already operates as the largest opposition party in the federal parliament in Berlin, political arguments framing its voter appeal as an "eastern exception" tied solely to the post-Communist east have become harder to sustain.

随着德国选择党民意支持度走高，基民盟自身在移民议题上的措辞也向右侧倾斜。各主流政党在地方议会组建多数政府的数学空间被明显压缩，面临着如何维持长期排斥极右翼进入联合政府之民主正当性的现实挑战。在接下来的两周内，柏林和梅克伦堡等地的选民也将前往投票站，这将成为观察该党支持率演变的新节点。

As the AfD's public support has expanded, the CDU's own political rhetoric on migration has shifted further to the right. The shrinking numerical combinations required to establish viable mainstream governing majorities in state assemblies directly challenge how long mainstream leaders can maintain the democratic rationale for the firewall. In under two weeks, upcoming municipal and regional votes in Berlin and Mecklenburg in northeastern Germany are scheduled to provide further indications of whether these electoral gains represent a ceiling or a new baseline for the party.

德国主流建制派政党面临着来自国外的政治压力，这种外部推力已不再仅来自莫斯科，也包括来自华盛顿的MAGA政治阵营。埃隆·马斯克在去年联邦选举前公开支持德国选择党，并在一场竞选集会上声称该党将拯救文明的未来。美国副总统JD·万斯在2025年慕尼黑安全会议上的演讲中抨击了德国针对极右翼设立的“防火墙”，并在投票前数日与魏德尔举行了会面。

Germany's established political mainstream faces increasing pressure from abroad, extending beyond traditional geopolitical concerns involving Moscow to encompass influence from Washington and the MAGA movement. Tech executive Elon Musk endorsed the Alternative for Germany prior to last year's federal election, appearing at a campaign rally to claim that the party would save the future of civilization. In addition, US Vice President JD Vance utilized his speech at the 2025 Munich Security Conference to criticize Germany's firewall against the far right directly, while meeting with AfD co-leader Alice Weidel days before the vote.

德国选择党内部人士主张与白宫和克里姆林宫同时建立良好关系，萨克森-安哈尔特州的该党候选人乌尔里希·齐格民德在投票前的竞选活动中表达了这一立场。这些地缘诉求与本土选民对移民流动、工资停滞、去工业化以及主流政党未能回应不满情绪的现实关切相互交织，使外部力量在欧洲二战后中间派格局面临压力的过程中发挥着推动作用。

Prominent figures within the AfD have advocated for forging favorable working relations with both the White House and the Kremlin, a stance actively promoted by candidate Ulrich Siegmund leading into the regional election. These international overtures coincide with voter discontent across Germany rooted in immigration concerns, wage stagnation, deindustrialization, and the inability of centrist leaders to resolve local grievances, as outside political forces align with the structural strain placed on Europe's postwar political center.

在全欧层面，极右翼政治力量已通过多种途径深度介入机构政治与治理体系。欧洲议会中的三个硬右翼党团合计占据196个席位，成为按席位计算的第二大政治力量，并与中右翼欧洲人民党在移民政策改革等事务上展开协调。在国家层面，意大利总理梅洛尼掌权后采取温和化转向并保持了政局稳定，捷克也由极右翼牵头联合政府，芬兰、克罗地亚、斯洛伐克及瑞典等国则将此类政党吸纳为执政伙伴。

Across Europe, far-right forces have become deeply integrated into institutional politics through diverse pathways. Three hard-right factions hold a combined 196 seats in the European Parliament, constituting the chamber's second-largest political force by seat tally, and have coordinated with the center-right European People's Party on major migration policy reforms. At the national level, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has maintained political stability by adopting a moderate posture in office, while far-right parties lead the coalition in the Czech Republic and serve as junior governing partners in Finland, Croatia, Slovakia, and Sweden.

欧洲极右翼的发展轨迹同时显现出明确的选举波动与治理限制。匈牙利执政16年的欧尔班在4月大选中遭遇滑铁卢，被反腐败政党击败；荷兰自由党领导人维尔德斯因移民政策分歧导致其参与的联合政府解体；英国改革党在地方选举斩获成果后，也面临补选受挫与资金审查。随着法国与西班牙等国即将迎来关键选举，极右翼政党在欧洲的扩展动能正面临来自选举实践与治理周期的多重检验。

The trajectory of Europe's far right has simultaneously encountered clear electoral and operational limits. In Hungary, Viktor Orban lost power in a landslide defeat in April after 16 years of rule, unseated by a challenger campaigning on anti-corruption pledges. In the Netherlands, Geert Wilders broke apart his governing coalition over intractable immigration disputes, while Britain's Reform UK party faced funding questions and special election losses following earlier local gains. With major national elections approaching in France and Spain, the movement's broader momentum faces decisive tests across different electoral systems.