达美航空受燃油成本飙升拖累下调2026年盈利预期Delta Air Lines Cuts 2026 Profit Forecast as Fuel Costs Surge

在经历了两年的稳健盈利表现后，达美航空管理层在10月9日调整了全年的利润基准。由于航油采购价格居高不下，公司将2026年全年的调整后每股收益区间设定为5.10美元至5.60美元。这一数字明显低于今年7月燃油行情相对平缓时所预测的6.50美元至7.50美元区间。除了全年盈利目标的下修，达美航空对第四季度的财务指引同样低于华尔街分析师此前的一致预期。

Following two years of meeting or beating targets, Delta Air Lines adjusted its annual financial baselines downward on October 9 as persistent fuel costs weighed on forward projections. The carrier set its 2026 adjusted earnings between $5.10 and $5.60 per share, down from the $6.50 to $7.50 range established in July when jet fuel market conditions were more favorable. Company guidance for the upcoming fourth quarter also trailed consensus estimates compiled by Wall Street analysts.

除了每股收益预期回落，达美航空对流动性的预测也出现显著调整。该公司将全年的自由现金流预期下调至25亿美元，较7月份预估的高达40亿美元减少了近38%。尽管面临现金流缩水压力，达美航空仍预计第四季度的营收将实现同比增长20%，增速高于剔除宾夕法尼亚州特雷纳炼油厂收益后第三季度录得的16%同比增幅。

The downward revision extended to liquidity projections, with Delta reducing its expected full-year free cash flow to $2.5 billion, a decline of nearly 38% compared to the maximum target of $4 billion projected in July. Despite lower cash flow expectations, management forecasted a 20% year-over-year revenue increase for the fourth quarter. That pace represents an acceleration compared to the 16% revenue rise recorded during the third quarter after adjusting for benefits tied to its Trainer, Pennsylvania refinery operation.

在涵盖繁忙夏季出行周期的第三季度中，作为全美盈利能力最强的航空公司，达美航空营业收入同比增长21%，达到201.9亿美元。在剔除炼油厂产品销售、维修维护业务以及员工利润分享项目后，经调整的营业收入同比增长16%，录得175.9亿美元。这一营收增长主要受到出行旺季强劲客流的支撑，但燃料开支的高企削弱了向底线的利润转化。

Covering the peak summer travel season, operating revenue at Delta Air Lines jumped 21% year-over-year in the third quarter to $20.19 billion, maintaining the carrier's position as the nation's most profitable airline. After adjusting for revenues tied to its refinery operation, third-party maintenance business, and employee profit-sharing, adjusted revenue increased 16% from the prior year to $17.59 billion. While strong passenger traffic carried top-line momentum, elevated operational expenses curtailed the flow of revenue gains into bottom-line earnings.

高额运营支出致使当季净利润降至7.56亿美元，合每股1.15美元，相较去年同期的14.2亿美元及每股2.17美元下降47%。在收入构成方面，高端客舱对销售额的贡献持续提升，其收入在第三季度同比增长18%至68.2亿美元，已超过普通主客舱的规模；相比之下，普通客舱销售收入同比增幅仅为12%，收于68亿美元。

Higher costs drove Delta's net income down to $756 million, or $1.15 per share, representing a 47% drop from the $1.42 billion, or $2.17 per share, achieved during the third quarter of last year. Within passenger segments, premium cabin sales outpaced standard seating and expanded their share of aggregate receipts. Third-quarter premium revenue increased 18% to $6.82 billion, edging past the main cabin segment, where ticket sales grew by a slower 12% to $6.80 billion.

自2月份伊朗冲突爆发以来，全球航空燃油价格出现大幅波动并持续走高，给整个民航业的盈利水平带来了直接冲击。达美航空首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安明确表示，油价上涨以及燃料市场的剧烈波动正是导致公司财务预测受挫的关键因素。为了抵御航油开支的激增，达美航空在今年内被迫承担了大约60亿美元的新增燃油成本，这一数字直接推高了航空公司的整体营运负担。

Since the outbreak of the Iran conflict in February, elevated jet fuel prices and severe commodity market volatility have placed sustained pressure on commercial airline earnings across the industry. Delta Air Lines Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian cited this persistent turbulence in fuel markets as a principal factor behind the carrier's compressed profit margins. Throughout the course of the year, the airline has had to absorb an estimated $6 billion increase in fuel expenses, significantly altering its operational expenditure profile and weakening bottom-line performance.

与其他主要竞争对手相比，达美航空凭借位于宾夕法尼亚州特雷纳的炼油厂在一定程度上缓解了燃料涨价带来的冲击。该炼油厂将原油加工提炼为航空燃油及其他石油衍生产品，为达美航空提供了同行所不具备的对冲优势。即便如此，全球能源市场的严峻形势仍超出了炼油利润所能抵消的范围，迫使该航司不得不通过灵活调整票价，将大部分新增的燃油支出转移给终端消费者。

Delta possesses a structural buffer against rising refined product costs through its wholly owned refinery facility located in Trainer, Pennsylvania. By processing crude oil directly into jet fuel and related petroleum products, the facility provides the carrier with an operational and supply hedge not shared by rival airlines. Despite that internal processing advantage, the magnitude of global energy cost increases continued to outstrip refinery-related offsets, leaving the carrier to exercise pricing power and shift the bulk of the added $6 billion burden directly to passenger airfares.

在航空公司将数十亿美元新增燃油支出转移至终端市场的同时，全美航空出行的价格水平出现实质性走高。9月份公布的通胀读数显示，全美机票价格同比涨幅已超过23%，反映出航空公司普遍在成本承压时行使了定价权。不过，机票费用的显著上涨并未遏制公众的出行意愿，旅客预订量在涨价态势下依旧保持了强劲的活跃度。

As airlines pass billions of dollars in added fuel expenditures directly along to consumers, overall travel costs have experienced a sharp upward climb across the nation. The latest inflation reading published in September showed that airfares rose by more than 23% compared with the same period a year earlier, confirming that commercial carriers have actively exercised pricing power in response to sustained operational expense pressures. Even with ticket prices jumping at such a rapid pace, consumer appetites for air travel have not diminished, with passenger booking volumes maintaining steady momentum.

首席执行官埃德·巴斯蒂安在接受采访时评价了当前的消费热度，指出不论是商务出行还是休闲度假，各类客舱等级、预订渠道以及各个地理区域的市场反应均十分稳健。达美航空的预订数据表明，尽管燃油开支推高了旅行账单，消费者对航空出行服务的支付意愿依然未见退潮迹象。

Addressing the travel trends in an interview, Chief Executive Officer Ed Bastian observed that customer responsiveness remains notably durable across the carrier's operations. Bastian emphasized that passenger demand continues to demonstrate strength across all distribution channels, cabin classes, geographic regions, and customer segments, including both corporate business travelers and leisure flyers. Delta's commercial metrics show that despite substantial fare adjustments made necessary by broader commodity pressures, traveler demand shows no clear evidence of declining.