科学家称气候变化使欧洲历史性热浪成为可能Climate Change Makes Historic European Heatwave Possible, Scientists Say

世界气候归因组织（WWA）在周五发布的一项快速研究中指出，人类活动引起的气候危机是导致欧洲当前热浪的直接原因。科学家在报告中明确指出，全球变暖对这场极端天气负有“无可置疑”的责任。该研究网络通过分析极端天气与气候变化之间的关联，将当前席卷欧洲大陆的持续高温定性为该地区“有记录以来最严重”的一次热浪。

A rapid study published on Friday by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group concluded that the human-driven climate crisis is "unequivocally to blame" for the intense heatwave currently baking Europe. The scientific network, which analyzes the role of global warming in driving extreme weather events, officially described the ongoing meteorological event as the region's "most severe ever recorded."

根据这项由欧洲、美国和英国科学家共同完成的研究，如果没有气候变化，如此异常的高温天气在几十年前几乎是不可能发生的。帝国理工学院的学者、该研究的主要作者西奥多·基平（Theodore Keeping）向媒体表示，若没有气候变化的影响，今年6月的这场极端高温事件根本无法发生。科学家强调，随着全球气温上升，此类极端天气发生的可能性已经发生了巨大的改变。

The research, conducted by a collaborative team of scientists from Europe, the United States, and the United Kingdom, determined that such exceptional temperatures would have been "virtually impossible" to occur in June just a few decades ago. Theodore Keeping, the study's lead author from Imperial College London, told reporters that this specific event would not have been possible in June without the influence of climate change, emphasizing that the likelihood of such severe heatwaves has changed immensely in today's warmer world.

在这场席卷欧洲的极端天气中，多个国家的高温纪录接连被打破。法国在周三经历了有记录以来最热的一天，打破了前一天刚刚创下的纪录。英国在周三创下了有记录以来的6月最高气温，随后在周四再次刷新了这一纪录。西班牙在周一和周二经历了有记录以来最热的两个6月天，而瑞士也在周四创下了其有记录以来的6月最高气温。

During this extreme weather event sweeping across Europe, temperature records have fallen like dominoes in multiple countries. France experienced its hottest day on record on Wednesday, breaking a milestone that had been set only the day before. The United Kingdom posted its highest June temperature ever recorded on Wednesday, only to smash that record again on Thursday. Meanwhile, Spain endured its two hottest June days on record on Monday and Tuesday, and Switzerland registered its hottest recorded June temperature on Thursday.

极端高温给当地居民带来了严峻挑战，法国、意大利、西班牙和英国的数百万民众正面临超过40摄氏度（104华氏度）的极端高温。世界气候归因组织的研究人员指出，在这场热浪期间，极高的高温和湿度笼罩了欧洲大陆的大片地区，导致空气被困，从而引发了危险的极端天气。

The extreme heat has posed severe challenges for residents, with millions of people across France, Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom facing temperatures exceeding 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit). Researchers from the World Weather Attribution group noted that during this period, extreme and dangerous heat and humidity have suffocated huge parts of the continent, as a stubborn heat dome parked over Europe trapped hot air.

为了评估气候变化在本次极端天气中的具体作用，世界气候归因组织（WWA）的科学家利用真实世界与预测数据，分析了此次热浪期间欧洲大片地区最炎热的三个白天与夜晚。研究人员将当前的数据与地球温度较低的1976年和2003年等历史高温年份进行了对比。分析结果表明，在当今变暖的世界中，发生类似热浪的概率已经发生了巨大变化，其发生可能性比仅仅20年前高出了多达200倍。

To evaluate the precise role of climate change in this extreme weather event, scientists from the World Weather Attribution group used real-world and forecast data to analyze the three hottest days and nights of this heatwave across a vast section of Europe. The researchers compared the current data with major past heatwave years when the Earth was cooler, specifically focusing on 1976 and 2003. Their analysis revealed that the likelihood of such an event has changed immensely in today's warmer world, with these extreme temperatures now being up to 200 times more likely to occur than just two decades ago.

科学家指出，在半个世纪前的1976年，也就是此前欧洲创下部分高温纪录的年份，如此异常的昼夜气温在当时几乎是不可能出现的。研究表明，如果50年前发生类似的极端高温天气，其白天的气温会比现在低大约3.5摄氏度，而夜间的温度也会明显更低。这表明随着全球气温的上升，欧洲极端高温的强度和发生频率都已发生了根本性的改变。

The scientists highlighted that both daytime highs and nighttime temperatures during this period would have been virtually impossible half a century ago in 1976, when some of the previous European heat records were set. According to the study, a similar heatwave occurring 50 years ago would have been approximately 3.5 degrees Celsius cooler during the day and significantly cooler at night, demonstrating how global warming has fundamentally altered the intensity of extreme heat on the continent.

世界气候归因组织的研究人员指出，此次欧洲极端高温天气具有极高的危险性，这不仅源于白天的酷热，还得归咎于顽固的“热穹顶”现象所带来的高湿度。这种天气模式将大量湿热空气困在欧洲大陆上空，使得数百万民众面临着极具威胁的闷热环境。科学家强调，高湿度与异常炎热的夜间温度相结合，严重阻碍了人体的生理恢复，使此次热浪对公共健康构成了更为严峻的挑战。

Researchers from the World Weather Attribution group highlighted that the extreme danger of this European heatwave stems not only from scorching daytime temperatures but also from the high humidity trapped by a stubborn "heat dome" parked over the continent. This meteorological phenomenon has suffocated vast areas, creating hazardous conditions for millions of residents. Scientists emphasized that the combination of high humidity and brutal nighttime temperatures has prevented essential physical recovery, significantly amplifying the health risks associated with the ongoing weather event.

此外，科学家们还指出了一项令人担忧的长期趋势：欧洲大陆白天的最高气温上升速度，已经是全球变暖整体速度的三倍。这种加速变暖的趋势，加上夜间无法降温的“闷热夜间”现象，使得当前的极端天气事件比以往任何时候都更加危险。研究表明，随着气候变化持续加剧，这种高湿度、高夜温以及快速升温的协同效应，正在从根本上重塑欧洲夏季的健康风险格局。

Furthermore, scientists pointed out a worrying trend: daytime temperature peaks on the European continent are currently rising three times as fast as the wider rate of global warming. This rapid acceleration, coupled with the lack of nighttime relief, makes the current heatwave exceptionally dangerous compared to past events. Researchers concluded that these compounding factors—high humidity, relentless night-time heat, and accelerated daytime warming—are fundamentally reshaping the public health threat posed by extreme summer weather in Europe.