保加利亚举行总统决选：约托娃对决久罗夫Bulgarians Vote in Presidential Runoff Between Iotova and Gyurov
2026年11月1日，保加利亚选民走入投票站，在总统选举第二轮决选中决定国家未来的政治与外交路线。本次决选在现任代总统伊利亚娜·约托娃与前看守内阁总理安德烈·久罗夫之间展开。在首轮投票中，两人的得票率差距微弱，约托娃以34.76%对31.95%领先久罗夫，但均未突破50%的当选门槛，选民投票率仅为23%，创下历史新低。保加利亚总统兼任武装部队最高统帅，并在政治危机期间拥有任命看守政府的权力。 这场对决凸显出保加利亚在对外政策上的深刻分歧。自称“和平总统”的约托娃反对向乌克兰提供军事援助，主张通过与莫斯科对话解决冲突；获得亲西方阵营及前总理博伊科·鲍里索夫支持的久罗夫则强调北约盟国责任，并在担任看守总理期间与基辅签署了安全合作协议。与此同时，过去一个月保加利亚黑海沿岸频现针对商船的无人机袭击，包括一艘希腊集装箱船被击沉、约两打船员恐遇难，推动索非亚当局寻求盟国协助维护海上安全，也使对乌战争的外溢风险成为选民权衡的关键焦点。
Bulgarians cast ballots on November 1, 2026, in a presidential runoff election that presents a stark foreign policy choice for the NATO member state. Acting President Iliana Iotova faces former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov after a first round marked by a record-low 23 percent turnout, where Iotova secured 34.76 percent of the vote compared to Gyurov's 31.95 percent, leaving both short of the majority needed for outright victory. While the presidency holds largely ceremonial duties, the office retains constitutional powers to serve as commander-in-chief and appoint caretaker governments during crises. The ballot centers on Bulgaria's stance regarding the war in Ukraine and regional security. Iotova, who positions herself as a candidate of peace, opposes military aid to Kyiv and urges negotiations with Moscow. Gyurov, endorsed by pro-Western reformist groups and former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov, signed a security cooperation pact with Ukraine during his premiership and advocates a firm NATO alignment. The vote coincides with heightened maritime security fears following repeated drone attacks on commercial vessels off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast, including the sinking of a Greek container ship and about two dozen seafarers feared dead, prompting the government to request allied naval support.
01决选开局：低投票率背景下的关键对决The Runoff Begins: A Tight Race After Record-Low Turnout
保加利亚选举官员通报，投票站在周日开放并定于当地时间晚上8点（格林尼治标准时间18:00）关闭，出口民调将在投票结束后公布，正式结果预计于周一出炉。上周末举行的第一轮投票仅有23%的合资格选民参与，刷新了该国选举历史上的最低投票率纪录。由于选民在通胀与经济挑战面前展现出明显的政治冷感，两位候选人在首轮均未能赢得过半数选票。
Polling stations opened across Bulgaria on Sunday and are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. local time (18:00 GMT), with exit polls set to be published immediately after voting ends and final official results expected on Monday, according to election authorities. The runoff follows an opening round marked by deep voter apathy toward domestic economic concerns, in which only 23 percent of registered voters cast ballots—the lowest voter turnout on record for a Bulgarian national election.
首轮计票结果显示，61岁的现任代总统约托娃获得34.76%的选票，领先50岁的前看守总理久罗夫不到三个百分点，后者拿下了31.95%的选票。若约托娃胜选，她将成为保加利亚历史上首位通过直选产生的女性总统；她自2026年1月接任代总统，此前拉德夫辞去总统职务以投身议会选举并出任总理。首轮投票结束后，久罗夫向媒体表示，选民当前面临着“两种人格、两个方向以及行使总统职权的两种方式”之间的抉择。
First-round official tallies showed 61-year-old acting President Iliana Iotova winning 34.76 percent of the vote, securing a narrow lead of less than three percentage points over 50-year-old former caretaker Prime Minister Andrey Gyurov, who received 31.95 percent. A victory for Iotova would make her the country's first elected female president following her interim assumption of office in January, when Rumen Radev resigned the post to contest parliamentary elections and become prime minister. Gyurov observed after the initial ballot that Bulgarians face a direct choice between two personalities, two directions, and two distinct ways of exercising presidential authority.
02外交与安全分歧：对俄立场与乌克兰援助之争Diplomatic and Security Divide: Divergent Stances on Russia and Ukraine
在选前电视辩论中，两名候选人围绕俄乌冲突的根源与解决路径展开交锋。久罗夫指责约托娃在黑海袭击事件上回避直接点名批评莫斯科，要求指认威胁来源并要求俄罗斯停止侵略。约托娃则自称和平总统，主张唯有通过谈判实现和平，并认为持续向乌克兰提供援助只会加剧破坏并导致冲突双方更多人员死亡。分析指出，若约托娃胜选，其施政方针预计将与总理拉德夫一致，在维持欧洲轨道的同时寻求改善对俄关系，并主张解除相关制裁措施。
During a pre-runoff televised debate, the two candidates clashed over the root causes and diplomatic pathways surrounding the war in Ukraine. Gyurov criticized Iotova for avoiding direct condemnation of Moscow following the Black Sea commercial ship strikes, urging officials to clearly name where the threats originate and demanding that Russia halt its aggression. Iotova, branding herself a president of peace, countered that peace can emerge only through direct negotiations, arguing that sending continued assistance to Ukraine leads solely to heightened destruction and further deaths on both sides. Analysts expect that if elected, Iotova would align closely with Prime Minister Rumen Radev by keeping Bulgaria on its European path while seeking closer relations with Moscow and advocating for the lifting of economic sanctions.
曾任保加利亚央行副行长及看守内阁总理的久罗夫，在竞选中强调保加利亚应成为能够依靠坚定外交捍卫利益的可靠北约盟友。久罗夫此前已多次表达对乌克兰的坚定支持，并在担任看守总理期间与基辅签署了安全合作协议。相比之下，约托娃及其所代表的执政力量反对向乌克兰输送武器装备，并寻求与莫斯科展开外交接触，这一根本分歧使得本次投票成为该国外交安全方向的重大对决。
Gyurov, who previously served as deputy governor of Bulgaria's central bank and headed the caretaker cabinet earlier in 2026, maintained that Bulgaria must act as a reliable NATO ally prepared to defend national interests through firm diplomacy. He has repeatedly voiced strong backing for Kyiv, having finalized a formal bilateral security cooperation pact during his tenure as premier. By contrast, Iotova and the ruling establishment oppose sending military aid to Ukraine, making their clashing stances toward Moscow and Western alliances a central dividing line in the vote.
03安全危机阴影：黑海商船遇袭事件推升地区关切Shadow of Maritime Tensions: Black Sea Commercial Ship Attacks
在本次大选前的一个月里，保加利亚黑海沿岸频现针对商船的无人机袭击，引发国际社会的普遍谴责，也加剧了外界对乌克兰战事地理范围不断扩大的关切。周三，一艘希腊集装箱船在遭遇海上无人机击中后沉没，目前约有两打船员恐已遇难。这起海上安全事件加剧了黑海沿岸航道的紧张气氛，并直接影响到保加利亚选民在国家安全防务上的心理考量。
Over the past month leading up to the runoff, a series of drone attacks targeting commercial vessels off Bulgaria's Black Sea coast has drawn international condemnation and heightened concerns over the widening geographical reach of the war in Ukraine. The regional maritime emergency escalated sharply on Wednesday when a Greek container ship sank after being struck by sea drones, leaving approximately two dozen seafarers feared dead. The lethal incident exposed vulnerabilities along critical maritime corridors and brought Black Sea navigation risks to the forefront of the electoral agenda.
面对黑海海域安全风险上升，保加利亚政府已向盟国提出协助请求，以增强本国海上安全保障能力。尽管约托娃与久罗夫两位总统候选人均对针对商船的袭击予以谴责并呼吁通过外交途径结束乌克兰战事，但支持约托娃的总理拉德夫指出，此类袭击的结果在客观上“有利于俄罗斯联邦”。针对黑海水域遇袭事件的应对与国际定性，已成为两派政治力量在国家防务层面的关键争论。
The surge in offshore strikes prompted the Bulgarian government to request assistance from allied nations to strengthen its maritime security capabilities. While both leading candidates have condemned the attacks on merchant shipping and called for a diplomatic resolution to the broader war, Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who endorses Iotova, observed that the operational outcome of the strikes benefits the Russian Federation. How Sofia navigates coastal defense partnerships and responds to maritime aggression remains a central point of friction between the competing political camps.
04国内政治格局与总统职能影响Domestic Political Landscape and Constitutional Stakes
在保加利亚的议会共和制架构下，国家元首虽然主要履行礼仪性职能，但在国内宪政体制中扮演着关键仲裁角色。根据保加利亚宪法，总统不仅担任武装部队最高统帅，还享有否决议会法案的权力，并在议会陷入僵局或政治危机期间负责任命看守政府。这些制度性职权赋予了总统在行政重组与安全战略调整中的实质影响力，使得本次大选的结果直接关乎该国未来内政与防务机制的运行。
Under Bulgaria's constitutional framework, the presidency largely exercises ceremonial responsibilities during ordinary governing periods, but the office wields significant arbiter functions in times of state crisis. According to the Bulgarian constitution, the president serves as the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, retains the legal authority to veto parliamentary legislation, and holds the mandate to appoint interim caretaker governments during political paralysis. These institutional powers provide the head of state with decisive leverage over interim executive governance and security oversight, ensuring that the runoff's outcome directly shapes domestic policymaking stability.
本次竞选格局同样投射出保加利亚各政治派系的深层分化。约托娃与总理鲁门·拉德夫之间保持着紧密的政治纽带；拉德夫在2026年1月辞去总统职位后成功通过议会选举上台组阁，多数政治分析人士认为其竞选纲领带有亲克里姆林宫倾向。另一方面，久罗夫不仅汇聚了亲西方和改革派政党的支持，还赢得了前总理博伊科·鲍里索夫等多位右翼政治人物的公开站台，将此次总统决选转变为左右两大政治阵营针对国家制度权力与地缘定位的集中角逐。
The electoral contest also mirrors the broader realignments within Bulgarian domestic politics. Iotova retains close political ties to Prime Minister Rumen Radev, who vacated the presidency in January to run and secure victory in parliamentary elections on a political ticket viewed by numerous analysts as friendly toward Moscow. Conversely, Gyurov has drawn robust support from pro-Western, reformist factions alongside endorsements from prominent right-leaning political figures, including former Prime Minister Boiko Borisov, turning the race into a high-stakes test of parliamentary and institutional leverage between rival political blocs.
