白宫警告工作人员禁止利用内部信息在预测市场投注White House Staff Warned Against Betting on Prediction Markets Using Insider Information

白宫管理办公室发送的这封邮件旨在规范工作人员的行为准则，防止其在快速发展的预测市场中出现违规行为。邮件内容强调，利用职务之便获取的非公开信息进行投注不仅涉及道德诚信问题，还可能触及法律红线。随着Kalshi和Polymarket等平台的合法化和普及，普通民众和专业投资者对政策走向的关注度空前提高，这也让身处决策核心的白宫助手面临更大的诱惑和审查。

The email from the White House Management Office aims to regulate staff conduct and prevent violations within the rapidly evolving prediction market landscape. The directive emphasizes that wagering based on non-public information obtained through official duties involves both ethical integrity and potential legal boundaries. As platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket gain mainstream traction, the public and professional investors are monitoring policy shifts more closely than ever, placing White House aides under increased scrutiny.

预测市场的一个显著特点是其对突发新闻和政策变动的极高敏感性。在白宫发出警告之前，特朗普总统关于伊朗政策的表态就是一个典型案例。此类涉及战争与和平的决策往往会导致相关预测合约的价格剧烈波动。如果政府内部人员在消息公布前利用已知信息提前布局，将获得巨大的不公平优势。目前，这些平台上的用户已经开始对各种冲突和国际危机进行大规模投注，这使得白宫必须划清界限。

A defining characteristic of prediction markets is their extreme sensitivity to breaking news and policy shifts. President Trump's statements regarding Iran policy just prior to the warning serve as a prime example. Decisions involving war and peace often cause dramatic price swings in related prediction contracts. If administration insiders were to trade on such information before it became public, they would hold a massive, unfair advantage. Users on these platforms are already wagering heavily on various conflicts and international crises, necessitating a clear boundary from the White House.

此次禁令特别点名了两家主要的预测市场平台。这些平台近年来在用户规模和交易量上都取得了显著增长。下表列出了邮件中提到的主要平台及其特点：

The directive specifically named two major prediction market platforms that have seen significant growth in user base and trading volume in recent years. The following table outlines the primary platforms mentioned in the email and their characteristics:

尽管这些平台在某些司法管辖区面临监管挑战，但它们在追踪公众预期方面发挥了越来越大的作用。白宫的这一举措反映了行政部门对新兴金融工具与政府伦理之间冲突的警惕。随着预测市场对现实世界政策的影响力增强，针对政府雇员的限制措施可能会进一步收紧。

While these platforms face regulatory challenges in certain jurisdictions, they play an increasing role in tracking public expectations. The White House's move reflects the executive branch's vigilance regarding the conflict between emerging financial tools and government ethics. As the influence of prediction markets on real-world policy grows, restrictions on government employees are likely to tighten further.