美伊达成和平协议将重开霍尔木兹海峡，全球股市暴涨原油大跌US and Iran Reach Peace Deal, Sparking Global Market Rally

巴基斯坦总理夏巴兹·谢里夫首先对外宣布了美伊两国达成协议的消息，并透露双方将于周五在瑞士举行正式的签署仪式。随后，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体“真实社交”（Truth Social）上确认了这一进展，表示该协议“现已完成”，并宣布他已授权在周五正式签署协议后重新开放关键的霍尔木兹海峡航道。伊朗国家媒体也对此消息进行了报道和确认。

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif first announced the breakthrough, stating that an official signing ceremony between the United States and Iran is scheduled to take place this coming Friday in Switzerland. Following Sharif's announcement, US President Donald Trump confirmed the development on his Truth Social platform, declaring the agreement "now complete." Trump also stated that he has authorized the reopening of the strategic Strait of Hormuz passageway on Friday immediately following the official signing ceremony. Iranian state media subsequently confirmed the agreement as well.

尽管这一重大的外交突破旨在永久结束两国之间持续数月的军事行动与战争状态，并引发了全球市场的强烈反响，但截至目前，美国和伊朗双方均未向外界公布该协议的正式文本。随着周五瑞士签署仪式的临近，这一关键航道的重新开放预计将极大缓解全球能源供应中断的担忧，并有效减轻亚洲供应链此前所承受的巨大压力。

Despite the significant diplomatic breakthrough aimed at permanently ending months of military operations and war, neither the United States nor Iran has released the official text of the agreement. The anticipated reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on Friday is expected to significantly relieve pressure on global energy supplies and Asian supply chains, which have been severely strained during the months-long conflict.

周一早盘交易中，亚太地区主要股票市场全线强劲上涨，投资者对美伊达成和平协议以及霍尔木兹海峡即将重开的消息做出了极其积极的反应。在日本东京，日经225指数飙升5.13%，成功突破69,000点大关，创下历史新高；同时，东证指数（Topix）也上涨了3.63%。韩国股市同样表现亮眼，韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）以5.17%的涨幅领涨亚太地区，而创业板科斯达克指数（Kosdaq）则表现平稳。

Asia-Pacific stock markets rallied strongly in early Monday trading as investors reacted with optimism to the pending peace agreement between the United States and Iran. In Tokyo, Japan's Nikkei 225 index surged 5.13% to cross the 69,000 threshold, marking a historic record high, while the broader Topix index advanced by 3.63%. South Korea's benchmark Kospi index led the regional gains with a 5.17% jump, while the small-cap Kosdaq index remained flat.

与此同时，中国及周边其他市场也呈现普涨态势。在香港市场，恒生指数在当地时间上午9点30分上涨0.8%，达到24,919.40点，恒生科技指数则上涨1.5%。在中国大陆，沪深300指数也攀升了1%。此外，澳大利亚标普/ASX 200指数上涨2.62%。分析人士和投资者普遍预期，随着霍尔木兹海峡定于周五重新开放，此前因数月战争而承受巨大压力的亚洲供应链将得到显著缓解。

Other major markets in the region also posted solid gains. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index rose 0.8% to 24,919.40 by 9:30 a.m. local time, while the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 1.5%. In mainland China, the CSI 300 Index climbed 1%, and Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index added 2.62%. Market participants welcomed the news of the scheduled Friday reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is expected to significantly relieve pressure on Asian supply chains that had been severely strained by the months-long conflict.

在西方金融市场，美股三大股指期货在周日晚间开盘后明显走高，拉开了这一因假期而缩短的交易周的序幕。具体来看，与道琼斯工业平均指数挂钩的期货上涨了342点，涨幅为0.7%；标普500指数期货上涨0.9%，纳斯达克100指数期货则上涨1.4%。这一积极势头反映出，在美伊两国持续数月的军事冲突给全球市场情绪带来沉重压力后，投资者情绪得到了广泛释放。

In Western financial markets, US stock futures rose on Sunday night to kick off the holiday-shortened trading week following the peace announcement. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 342 points, or 0.7%, while S&P 500 futures climbed 0.9% and Nasdaq 100 futures popped 1.4%. This positive momentum reflected widespread relief among investors after months of military conflict between the United States and Iran, which had previously weighed heavily on global market sentiment.

与此同时，美国国债价格全线走高，收益率相应下跌。由于美伊达成和平协议、重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的消息显著缓解了此前扰乱全球市场的能源供应中断担忧，市场避险情绪降温。交易员和投资者迅速下调了对美联储未来加息的预期，他们预计冲突的解决将有助于缓解此前不断累积的全球通胀压力和经济风险。

Simultaneously, US Treasuries advanced across the curve as bond prices rose. The news of the agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz significantly eased concerns over energy-supply disruptions that had previously roiled global markets. Consequently, investors and traders quickly dialed back their expectations for future Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes, anticipating that the resolution of the conflict would help mitigate global inflationary pressures and economic risks that had been building up.

在大宗商品市场，美伊达成和平协议以及霍尔木兹海峡即将重开的消息引发了剧烈波动。由于对能源供应中断的担忧得到缓解，美国原油价格在周日晚间大幅下跌近5%，创下三个月来的新低。市场分析指出，如果霍尔木兹海峡在未来不再被关闭，布伦特原油期货价格到今年年底可能会一路下跌至每桶80美元。这一关键航道的重新开放，为此前因数月战争而动荡不安的全球能源市场注入了强烈的降温信号。

In commodity markets, the news of the peace agreement and the upcoming reopening of the Strait of Hormuz triggered sharp declines. Easing concerns over energy-supply disruptions sent US crude tumbling nearly 5% on Sunday night, hitting a three-month low. Market projections indicate that Brent crude futures could potentially fall to $80 per barrel by the end of the year, provided that the strategic Strait of Hormuz is not closed again. The anticipated reopening of this vital passageway has provided significant relief to global energy markets that had been roiled by months of conflict.

与此同时，芝加哥粮食期货价格也出现下跌。分析指出，霍尔木兹海峡的潜在重开有望改善全球获取重要农作物投入品的渠道，从而缓解此前因数月战争而加剧的食品通胀威胁。随着供应链担忧的消退，农业生产资料面临的冲击将得到有效减轻。大宗商品价格的集体回落，反映出市场对全球供应链逐步恢复正常、通胀压力得到缓解的乐观预期。

Simultaneously, grain futures in Chicago declined as the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected to improve access to vital crop inputs. This development is projected to help ease the threats of food inflation that had been severely exacerbated by the months-long war. As supply chain concerns begin to fade, the relief in agricultural input shocks and the broader pullback in commodity prices reflect growing market optimism that global supply lines and inflationary pressures will soon stabilize.