特朗普取消两州周末集会转为电话连线 共和党冲刺中期选举Trump Cancels Weekend Rallies in Iowa and Kansas for Tele-Rallies

特朗普原定于周六前往堪萨斯州、周日前往艾奥瓦州杜布克出席现场集会，为竞争激烈的国会选区共和党候选人站台。按最初设想，这两场活动是他走访全美35个地点冲刺中期选举的重要一环。然而，白宫与竞选团队最终决定撤回线下行程，转为由特朗普通过电话接入各地的远程电话集会。

Trump had been scheduled to campaign in person on Saturday in Kansas and on Sunday in Dubuque, Iowa, in the contested 2nd Congressional District, stumping for Republican candidates facing tight races. The stops were initially planned as part of a national tour targeting 35 locations to drive GOP turnout. However, the White House and campaign leadership opted to abandon both in-person appearances in favor of remote audio tele-rallies.

共和党全国委员会在一份声明中指出，调整安排旨在让特朗普能与更广泛的选民交流，并开启选前“72小时冲刺”。共和党全国委员会主席乔·格鲁特斯表示，全美选民都渴望在投票日前听到总统的声音，密集的电话互动将在最后阶段带来推动力。两名白宫官员同时证实，特朗普计划在投票日前举行超过20场电话集会，其呼叫网络将覆盖至少19个州。按照现有日程，特朗普周五仍将在佛罗里达州代托纳比奇出席线下活动，但竞选团队尚未公布其在选举前最后一天即周一的任何公开行程。

The Republican National Committee said the schedule shift was designed to maximize opportunities for Trump to address voters nationwide through a 72-hour pre-election sprint. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that voters across the country want to hear from the president before Election Day and described the telephone blitz as a late campaign boost. Two White House officials confirmed Trump is aiming to hold more than 20 tele-rallies spanning at least 19 states before Tuesday. Trump is still slated to hold an in-person rally Friday in Daytona Beach, Florida, while no campaign appearances have been announced for Monday.

连续密集的竞选行程对现年80岁的特朗普造成了明显的身体负担。本月他在全美已出席了25场集会，周一在密西西比州科林斯发表演讲时声音沙哑，并向现场支持者坦言上帝造人并未设计让声带承受每天一场集会的强度。周四在南卡罗来纳州罗克希尔为参议员候选人达琳·格雷厄姆站台后，一名路透社记者询问他是否在连轴转后感到疲惫、取消堪萨斯州集会是否与健康状况有关。特朗普随即严厉反驳，称自己感觉极佳，并指责记者的提问令人生厌且毫无根据。

The grueling campaign pace has placed an unmistakable physical strain on the 80-year-old president, who has headlined 25 rallies across the country this month alone. Speaking with a noticeably hoarse voice on Monday in Corinth, Mississippi, Trump openly acknowledged the physical toll, remarking to the crowd that God did not create vocal cords to do a rally every single day. On Thursday, following an appearance in Rock Hill, South Carolina, for Senate candidate Darline Graham, Trump snapped at a Reuters reporter who asked how he felt after weeks of travel and pressed him on whether the Kansas cancellation was tied to his health, sharply dismissing the inquiry and insisting he felt perfect.

白宫与竞选团队均坚称特朗普身体状态极佳，随后不久宣布了艾奥瓦州集会的取消。在此期间，副总统JD·万斯同样缩减了竞选行程，取消了原定周五在明尼苏达州圣克劳德与白宫消灭欺诈特别工作组共同举行的“打击欺诈战”新闻发布会。官方并未就万斯取消该场活动给出明确理由，但这一连串行程调整使外界对政府高层在竞选尾声的动员节奏与体能分配产生了诸多关注与猜测。

Hours after that confrontation, Trump also called off his planned Sunday rally in Iowa. On the same day, Vice President JD Vance scrapped a scheduled Friday press conference in St. Cloud, Minnesota, where he was slated to announce updates alongside members of the White House Task Force to Eliminate Fraud as part of the administration's War on Fraud effort. Officials offered no clear explanation for Vance's cancellation, leaving observers to note the sudden contraction of in-person events by the administration's top figures during the crucial closing days of the midterm cycle.

取消堪萨斯州与艾奥瓦州现场集会的决定在两地共和党基层引发了分歧明显的评价。部分两州党内高层人士私下对集会取消感到松了一口气。一名共和党官员向媒体表示，大型现场集会筹备工作极为繁琐，在竞选冲刺期严重挤占了基层骨干挨家挨户敲门、扫街拜票以及展开催票行动的时间。另一位官员指出，所有想见总统的人早前都已见过，且直言总统在推动选情方面并没能在任何地方产生实质改变。

The decision to scrap in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa sparked starkly divided reactions among local Republican operatives across both states. Several top party figures in the two states quietly expressed a sigh of relief over the cancellations. One Republican official told reporters that staging massive presidential rallies was excessively time-consuming during the peak campaign homestretch, diverting crucial grassroots energy away from door-to-door canvassing and get-out-the-vote mobilization. A second GOP official remarked that everyone wanting to see Trump had already seen him, contending that the president had not moved the needle anywhere.

但在一线选战格外激烈的艾奥瓦州，多位党部工作人员表达了不同看法。除一个席位外，该州今年所有国会选区竞争均十分胶着。有艾奥瓦州共和党操盘手表示，电话集会虽然对拉动投票率有所助益，但传统的现场面对面集会带来的推动效果原本会更为显著。不过也有当地党内人士持乐观态度，称尽管希望能迎来总统站台，但艾奥瓦州的整体竞选基本盘目前依然处于良好态势。

Operatives in Iowa, however, voiced competing concerns over the lost in-person momentum given that all but one of the state's congressional seats are facing competitive races this cycle. One Iowa Republican operative noted that while a tele-rally provides a boost to turnout, a traditional in-person rally would have delivered a far more tangible impact on the ground. Another local operative struck a more sanguine tone, commenting that while local campaigns would always welcome a presidential appearance, the party's positioning across Iowa remains in solid shape.

共和党冲刺阶段的策略调整折射出日益严峻的选举大环境。高企的汽油价格以及旷日持久的伊朗战事引发民众不满，导致特朗普的支持率滑落至历史低位。多家预测机构与预测市场均评估民主党有望同时赢得参众两院控制权。全国民调均值数据显示，52%的受访美国人更倾向由民主党掌控国会，而倾向由共和党掌控的比例为43%。在堪萨斯州，受与伊朗战事相关的物价成本上涨影响，共和党参议员罗杰·马歇尔与民主党人亚当·汉密尔顿之间的竞选演变为胜负难分的胶着局面。

The tactical retreat from live events takes place against an increasingly difficult political environment for the ruling party. Frustration over soaring gasoline prices and a prolonged conflict with Iran has driven Trump's approval ratings down to historic lows. Forecasters and prediction markets project Democrats to sweep both the House and Senate, while an NBC News average of national polls shows 52 percent of surveyed Americans favoring Democratic control of Congress compared to 43 percent who prefer Republican leadership. In Kansas, inflation tied to the Iran conflict has turned Republican Senator Roger Marshall's race against Democrat Adam Hamilton into a toss-up.

提前投票数据同样给共和党敲响警钟。统计显示年轻民主党选民的投票率显著领先，在30岁以下选民群体中，民主党投票率比共和党高出31个百分点，该领先幅度相较两年前同期扩大了20个百分点。共和党全国委员会一名匿名官员承认，向选民宣传政绩面临着经济担忧升温的巨大阻力，而民主党阵营则展现出更强烈的投票热情。密尔沃基县共和党主席希拉里奥·德莱昂指出，许多此前被特朗普吸引出来的新选民甚至尚未意识到本届选举的重要意义与参与必要性。

Early voting returns also present stark challenges for the GOP across competitive jurisdictions. Data shows younger Democrats outpacing younger Republicans by 31 percentage points among voters under age 30, a margin that expanded by 20 points compared to the same point two years ago. An unnamed Republican National Committee official acknowledged the difficult task of pitching the administration's record amid growing economic worries, contrasting it with strong Democratic enthusiasm. Milwaukee County GOP Chairman Hilario Deleon similarly noted that many of the new voters previously mobilized by Trump remain unaware of the stakes in November.