英国公投脱欧十周年：经济学家称其持续拖累经济增长Ten Years After Brexit Vote, Economists Say Exit Drags Down UK Economy

2016年6月23日，英国举行了具有分水岭意义的脱欧公投。在这场竞争极为激烈的投票中，51.9%的英国选民选择脱离欧盟，而48.1%的选民选择留欧。这一决定标志着英国开始与这个全球最大的单一市场进行漫长而复杂的“离婚”进程，同时也为英国政治的核心地带埋下了持续动荡的种子。

On June 23, 2016, the landmark Brexit referendum marked the beginning of the United Kingdom's protracted divorce from the European Union, which was the world's largest single market. In a knife-edge vote, 51.9% of British voters opted to leave the bloc, while 48.1% chose to remain. This watershed decision immediately injected a period of political instability and economic upheaval into the heart of British politics, the effects of which are still being felt a decade later.

十年过去，这场公投所引发的政治不稳定和经济动荡至今仍在产生影响。分析人士指出，当前执政的工党内部所面临的领导层不确定性，实际上只是脱欧给英国政坛带来的长期混乱局面的最新表现。脱欧不仅重塑了英国与欧洲的关系，也持续对英国国内的政治格局造成冲击。

The political fallout from the historic vote continues to shape the nation's governance. Analysts suggest that the current leadership uncertainty gripping the ruling Labour Party is arguably just the latest iteration of the ongoing turmoil that Brexit introduced. Over the past ten years, the decision has repeatedly disrupted the domestic political landscape, demonstrating that the political costs of the separation remain as active and challenging as ever.

在评估脱欧对英国宏观经济的长期影响时，经济学家指出，尽管一些最糟糕的预测（例如立即发生经济衰退或房地产市场崩溃）并未成为现实，但脱离欧盟确实抑制了英国的经济增长潜力。根据多位经济学家的广泛共识，这一决定导致英国损失了2%至高达8%的潜在产出。这一预测区间的跨度之大，反映出量化脱欧具体影响的复杂性。

In evaluating the long-term macroeconomic consequences of Brexit, economists point out that while some of the most severe worst-case predictions—such as an immediate economic recession or a housing market crash—failed to materialize, leaving the European Union has restricted the United Kingdom's growth potential. According to a broad consensus among economists, the decision to exit the bloc has resulted in an estimated 2% to as much as 8% of foregone economic output for the nation.

分析表明，由于英国在完成脱欧后相继遭遇了其他重大外部冲击，包括全球新冠疫情大流行以及由俄乌冲突引发的能源危机，这些事件与脱欧效应交织在一起，使得研究人员在将脱欧对经济的单一影响进行剥离和精确量化时面临挑战。然而，尽管存在这些干扰因素，主流经济学界依然认为，脱欧对英国宏观经济造成的长期拖累是明显的。

The wide range of these estimates highlights the difficulty researchers face in isolating the precise impact of Brexit on the UK economy. This analytical challenge is primarily due to the series of major subsequent global shocks that followed the exit, most notably the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. These overlapping events have complicated efforts to separate the specific economic damage of Brexit from broader global disruptions, though its role as a persistent drag remains clear.

脱欧对英国普通民众日常生活的直接影响，最直观地体现在家庭开支和日常出行上。根据伦敦政治经济学院研究人员的估算，在2019年至2023年期间，英国脱离欧盟后对食品进口设立的贸易壁垒，直接导致食品价格飙升了12%。这一涨幅转化为具体的生活成本，意味着在此期间，英国平均每个家庭仅在食品开销上就多支出了400英镑，给普通家庭的钱包带来了直接的负担。

The direct impact of Brexit on the daily lives of ordinary British citizens is most clearly reflected in household expenses and routine travel. According to estimates by researchers from the London School of Economics, trade barriers imposed on food imports after the UK left the European Union caused food prices to soar by 12%. This inflation translated into a concrete financial burden for households, costing the average British family an additional £400 in grocery bills between 2019 and 2023.

除了超市账单的上涨，英国民众在处理日常事务和休闲旅游时也面临着更多不便。在脱欧之后，前往法国度假等跨境旅行变得更加昂贵和繁琐，宠物随行度假的成本也有所增加。此外，民众在欧洲目的地拨打电话，或者向境外邮寄包裹时需要填写海关申报单等，这些原本简便的日常操作如今不仅手续复杂，而且费用显著上升，使脱欧的实际代价渗透到了民众生活的方方面面。

Beyond rising supermarket bills, British citizens face increased costs and administrative hurdles in their everyday activities and leisure travel. Following Brexit, simple tasks have become significantly more complicated and expensive, such as taking pets on holidays to France or making phone calls while abroad. Furthermore, sending parcels now requires navigating the headache of customs declaration forms, illustrating how the practical costs of leaving the bloc have permeated various aspects of daily life.

除了对日常生活的直接冲击，脱欧对英国经济基础的深层伤害也在持续显现。分析指出，脱离欧盟的决定严重削弱了英国的商业投资，导致生产率增长放缓，并持续拉低了民众的整体生活水平。这种对经济活力的长期侵蚀，使得英国在面对全球竞争和内部发展时失去了重要的支撑力量。

Beyond the immediate shocks to daily life, the deeper structural damage of Brexit on the United Kingdom's economic foundations continues to manifest. The decision to leave the European Union has persistently hindered business investment, lowered productivity growth, and dragged down overall living standards. This ongoing erosion of economic vitality has left the nation with weaker foundations for long-term development.

前英格兰银行官员、现任牛津经济研究院高级顾问迈克尔·桑德斯指出，脱欧已成为英国经济的持续拖累。他解释说，脱欧持续降低了英国国内生产总值（GDP）的潜在水平。由于经济总量的萎缩，政府的财政税收收入也随之减少，这最终迫使英国政府不得不通过提高税收和削减公共开支来填补财政缺口，使公共服务和民众福祉进一步承压。

According to Michael Saunders, a senior adviser at Oxford Economics and a former Bank of England official, Brexit acts as a constant drag on the economy. Saunders noted that the exit continues to reduce the level of gross domestic product compared to what it would have been otherwise. This reduction in GDP has diminished government revenue, ultimately forcing the government to implement tax hikes and spending cuts to address the fiscal shortfall.