塞尔维亚迎提前议会选举 武契奇面临青年抗议浪潮挑战Serbia Holds Snap Election as Vučić Faces Fierce Challenge From Youth Movement

周四，塞尔维亚迎来了提前议会选举前的竞选最后冲刺。大批支持者从各个方向涌入贝尔格莱德中心广场，人流蔓延至周边数个街区，高呼“胜利”口号为“学生名单”助阵。独立集会监测机构“公共集会档案”评估指出，现场聚集了约15万人。多位候选人在现场登台发表演讲，名单主要候选人、心脏病专家伊利亚·斯尔达诺维奇在随学生队伍向贝尔格莱德行进时向媒体表示，民众展现出的能量势不可挡。大学教授兼候选人尤戈斯拉夫·加希奇向人群宣称，参选名单将致力于终结多年来的党派私利凌驾于公众之上的混乱局面。

Campaigning reached its peak on Thursday as rival camps held their final mobilizations across Serbia ahead of Sunday's vote. Demonstrators poured into central Belgrade from all directions, filling the main square and packing several surrounding blocks while chanting slogans of victory in support of the Student List. The independent crowd-monitoring group Archive of Public Gatherings estimated the turnout at approximately 150,000 people. Lead candidate and cardiologist Ilija Srdanović described the collective energy as unstoppable while marching with students toward the capital, and university professor Jugoslav Gasic, another candidate on the ticket, told the assembled crowd that the movement aimed to end years of party interests taking precedence over the public.

亚历山大·武契奇则在同一天面向坐满室内体育馆的支持者发表讲话，进行最后的动员对决。武契奇呼吁现场选民走向投票站果断击败对手，坚决保护并捍卫国家，指责抗议力量曾试图推翻国家政权。观察人士指出，这一系列竞选集会不仅展现出传统反对党所未能达到的动员规模，也让选民在执政党与新兴民间名单之间形成了类似全民公决的对决态势。

Aleksandar Vučić countered with his own mobilization on Thursday, addressing a packed sports hall filled with governing party supporters. Vučić urged the crowd to cast their ballots to protect the state and achieve a decisive victory, repeatedly insisting that his opponents had attempted to bring down the country. Analysts observed that the youth-led platform has demonstrated mass mobilization capabilities unmatched by Serbia's traditional opposition parties, transforming the final campaign stretch into an election atmosphere resembling a two-way referendum between the entrenched establishment and the protest movement.

这场席卷全国的政治风暴源于2024年11月1日塞尔维亚第二大城市诺维萨德发生的灾难。当时，火车站前部新翻修的混凝土遮雨棚在毫无预警的情况下突然发生坍塌，造成16人丧生。公众将这起惨剧视为体制内腐败与管理失职的集中体现，批评人士更是将车站翻修工程中存在的严重缺陷，直接联系到曾高调将该项目与自身政绩绑定的总统武契奇。最初由大学校园和街头集会发起的每周例行示威，最初聚焦于要求对事故展开独立调查并追责，但公众不满情绪迅速蔓延至全国范围。

The nationwide wave of political unrest originated from a disaster on November 1, 2024, in Serbia's second-largest city, Novi Sad, where a concrete canopy outside the newly renovated railway station collapsed without warning, killing 16 people. The tragedy was widely viewed across the country as emblematic of entrenched corruption and administrative negligence, with critics directly connecting the fatal renovation flaws to President Aleksandar Vučić, who had closely associated himself with the high-profile project. What began as weekly student demonstrations on university campuses demanding an independent inquiry and accountability quickly expanded into regular nationwide street protests.

抗议浪潮在数周内动摇了武契奇创立的执政党塞尔维亚前进党，并促使当时的内阁总理辞职下台。到2025年3月，贝尔格莱德爆发了该国有史以来规模最大的抗议活动之一。随着运动不断壮大，这支没有单一领袖的抗议群体依托学生大会与全体会议机制进行内部协调与组织，吸引了包括农民、演员和法官在内的广泛社会群体加入。在此次选举中，该阵营主动避开了在2023年选举后瓦解的传统主流亲欧反对党联盟，组建了由学生发起并支持的“学生名单-学生胜出”运动，但其推举的参选代表均非在校学生，而是来自社会各界的专业人士。

The sustained demonstrations shook Vučić's governing Serbian Progressive Party within weeks, prompting the prime minister to step down from office. By March 2025, Belgrade witnessed one of the largest demonstrations in its history. As the leaderless youth movement expanded, organizers coordinated their efforts through student assemblies and plenums, drawing support from a broad cross-section of society including farmers, actors, and judges. Rejecting the mainstream pro-European opposition coalition that fell apart after the 2023 vote, the anti-corruption movement established the 'Student List-Students Win' ticket; while young people serve as the core organizational backbone, the candidates fielded across its electoral roster are not students themselves, but rather figures drawn from across wider Serbian society.

武契奇自2014年起先后担任总理或总统，此前还曾担任两年的副总理职务。他在塞尔维亚政坛确立主导地位已超过十年，其创立的前进党自2012年上台执政以来尚未遭遇如此严峻的选举考验。由于宪法限制其无法连任第三届总统，武契奇选择辞去国家元首职务，转而率领执政党名单竞选，以期重新出任其在2017年离任的总理职位。外交政策智库亨利·杰克逊协会专家海伦娜·伊万诺夫分析称，武契奇参与了该国推行多党制以来的历次选举，击败他绝非易事，但此次选举对他而言同样不同以往。

Aleksandar Vučić has maintained an uninterrupted hold on Serbian governance for over a decade, serving as deputy prime minister for two years before holding office as either prime minister or president since 2014. Because he has completed two terms as president and is constitutionally barred from seeking a third, Vučić stepped down from the presidency to head the governing party's ticket with the aim of returning to the prime minister's office he vacated in 2017. Helena Ivanov, an analyst at the foreign policy think tank Henry Jackson Society, observed that while Vučić has contested every election since Serbia adopted a multi-party system, making him historically difficult to defeat, the current campaign presents his most demanding challenge to date.

面对青年阵营的持续动员，武契奇强化了对抗性指控，宣称反对力量背后并非单纯的学生与教授，而是企图推翻塞尔维亚政权的“强大域外大国”，并指责相关运动是一场外国资助的政变行动。他同时承诺要终止学校和大学体制内的政治化现象。在对外政策上，武契奇在西方阵营之间维持着谨慎平衡，在继续支持塞尔维亚加入欧盟候选资格的同时，始终拒绝就乌克兰战事对俄罗斯实施制裁。此外，多名政府内阁部长出席战犯拉特科·姆拉迪奇在贝尔格莱德的葬礼，曾引发欧盟对赞颂罪行行为的公开指责。

To counter the challenge from the student movement, Vučić has intensified his rhetoric, accusing opponents of acting on behalf of 'mighty great powers' seeking to overthrow the state and repeatedly describing the protests as a foreign-backed coup attempt. He has pledged to halt what he portrays as the politicisation of educational institutions and universities. Throughout his tenure, Vučić has balanced relations with the West by maintaining Serbia's European Union candidacy while refusing to join international sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine. That diplomatic balancing act has faced external friction, including criticism from EU officials after several government ministers attended the Belgrade funeral of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić.

塞尔维亚本次国民议会选举定于周日当地时间早晨7点开启投票，至晚上8点结束。在全国单一选区比例代表制下，645万名年满18岁的登记选民将对18个参选名单进行投票，竞逐全部250个议席。参选名单若想进入议会分配席位，必须跨过3%的得票率门槛，而在本届登记参选的18个名单中，仅有7个名单推选了全额250名议员候选人。由于两大主要阵营形成直接对抗，多方预测其余较小党派的议会空间可能被明显挤压。

Voting in Serbia's snap parliamentary election will run from 7:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. local time on Sunday, operating under a proportional representation system within a single nationwide constituency. The country's 6.45 million registered voters aged 18 and older will choose among 18 competing candidate lists to fill all 250 seats in the assembly. To secure representation in parliament, lists must cross a 3% electoral threshold, though only seven of the 18 registered tickets are fielding the maximum slate of 250 candidates. Observers noted that the polarization between the governing establishment and the youth-backed movement threatens to sideline smaller competing parties.

大选前夕，24家塞尔维亚民间社会机构发表联合声明，直指当前并不具备举行自由公正选举的环境。这些机构指出，上述评估并非源自零散事件、反对派单方说辞或政见分歧，而是基于记录调查在案的系列事实。分析人士警示，若投票呈现胶着局面且双方均单方面宣布获胜，可能迅速引发选后局势动荡；掌控警察部门的武契奇则公开表示，将坚决平息投票后可能出现的任何骚乱。

Days before the ballot, 24 Serbian civil society organizations issued a joint statement warning that essential conditions for a free and fair election are absent. The groups emphasized that their findings were grounded in documented evidence rather than isolated incidents, opposition claims, or ordinary political disagreements. Political analysts cautioned that an extremely close vote could trigger severe post-election instability if both camps claim victory simultaneously. For his part, Vučić, who commands the country's police forces, stated that authorities would move to suppress any public unrest following the vote.