以色列大选民调两派胶着 反对派微弱领先内塔尼亚胡Polls Show Razor-Thin Israeli Election as Opposition Barely Edges Netanyahu
以色列定于10月27日举行自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以来的首次议会选举，争夺议会全部120个席位。最新民意调查显示，两大阵营选情胶着，反对派阵营预计赢得52席，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡的宗教民族主义阵营预计获得50席，双方均未能达到组阁所需的61席单独多数。由雅沙尔党领袖加迪·埃森科特与前总理纳夫塔利·贝内特等人构成的反对派阵营此前签署了不攻击协议，力求终结内塔尼亚胡的长年执政。与此对应，代表以色列巴勒斯坦公民的联合名单与拉姆党预计共拿下约13席，但多数反对派领袖已公开排除与其建立正式执政联盟的选项，使选举后的联合政府谈判面临长期僵局。在选前冲刺阶段，各派阵营还在社交平台投放AI深度伪造视频并动用水军网络，利库德集团则改用催票应用Victory 26拉抬关键选区投票率，极化策略使议席争夺陷入高强度博弈。
Israel is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on October 27 for all 120 Knesset seats, marking the country's first general election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023. Recent opinion polls project a tightly contested race, placing the opposition bloc at 52 seats against 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's religious-nationalist alliance, leaving both factions short of the 61-seat threshold required to form a governing majority. The opposition, featuring Yashar party leader Gadi Eisenkot and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, signed a non-aggression pact to coordinate efforts to unseat Netanyahu. Meanwhile, two Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, the Joint List and Ra'am, are projected to secure approximately 13 seats. However, key opposition leaders have ruled out forming a governing coalition with them, complicating paths to a functional majority and raising prospects of extended political gridlock. Compounding the friction, both camps have engaged in digital campaign tactics across social platforms, deploying AI deepfake videos, bot networks, and turnout tools such as Likud's Victory 26 application to mobilize voters.
01大选背景与微弱民调差距Election Background and Close Polling Margins
以色列选民定于10月27日周二前往投票站，选举议会全部120个席位。这是自2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击、以色列对加沙展开军事行动以及后续区域冲突发生以来的首次大选。半岛电视台汇编的民意调查显示，由加迪·埃森科特领衔的反对派阵营预计获得52席，而内塔尼亚胡的宗教民族主义阵营预计拿下50席，双方的预估席位差距仅为2席。
Israeli voters cast ballots on Tuesday, October 27, for all 120 Knesset seats in the country's first national election since the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023, the ensuing war in Gaza, and widened regional conflict. Projections compiled by Al Jazeera show a razor-thin contest, with the opposition alliance led by former chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot expected to win 52 seats, compared to 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's religious-nationalist camp, leaving a margin of only two seats between the rival factions.
按照以色列的比例代表制，任何单一政党从未单独赢得过组建政府所需的61席门槛，内阁组建历来依赖不同党派间的谈判。《纽约时报》分析指出，即便计票结束，确定下一任总理并达成组阁协议往往需要耗费数周、数月甚至更长时间。虽然内塔尼亚胡在席位预测上微弱落后，但若利库德集团能够整合现有盟友或吸收新的合作者，他仍保留继续执政的可能性。
Under Israel's proportional representation electoral system, no individual party has ever secured an outright majority of at least 61 seats, requiring complex coalition talks across factions to establish a viable government. The New York Times noted that building a governing administration can routinely take weeks, months, or even longer after polls close. Despite trailing narrowly in polling tallies, Netanyahu could still retain office if his Likud party manages to assemble sufficient legislative backing from existing partners or fresh coalition allies.
2026年以色列大选关键政治节点Key Milestones Leading to the 2026 Israeli Election
梳理自2023年十·七袭击至2026年大选前夕以色列政局与竞选博弈的演进历程。
Traces the political developments and campaign dynamics in Israel from the October 7 attacks to the eve of the 2026 general election.
哈马斯对以色列发动袭击，造成约1200人死亡、251人被扣为人质。以军随后在加沙发起军事行动，战火后续波及多个地区。
Hamas launched attacks on Israel, killing around 1,200 people and taking 251 hostages, triggering an ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza.
雅沙尔党、民主党、以色列“我们的家园”党和“团结”联盟签署互不侵犯协议，协调行动以推翻内塔尼亚胡政府。
Four opposition parties—Yashar, Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and Together—signed a non-aggression pact to coordinate efforts to unseat Netanyahu.
以色列纪念十·七袭击三周年之际，有关阿联酋总统及调解人曾提前预警突袭的报道引发关注，内塔尼亚胡对此否认并诉诸法律。
On the third anniversary of the Oct. 7 attacks, Netanyahu faced intense scrutiny over reports alleging advance warnings of the assault, claims he denied and challenged in court.
在议会大选前三天，数千名示威者走上特拉维夫街头抗议内塔尼亚胡政府，要求其对未能阻止2023年十·七袭击负责。
Thousands marched against Netanyahu's government in Tel Aviv three days before the general election, demanding accountability for failing to prevent the October 7 attacks.
选前民调显示反对派联盟预计获52席，微弱领先内塔尼亚胡阵营的50席，但两派均未达到组阁所需的61席过半门槛。
Polls projected the opposition bloc at 52 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's religious-nationalist camp, leaving both short of the 61 seats needed for a majority.
02内塔尼亚胡阵营的联盟基础与维权诉求Netanyahu's Coalition Base and Political Vulnerabilities
半岛电视台报道指出，内塔尼亚胡执政联盟的传统基石由极右翼和极端正统派势力构成。其关键盟友包括国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔领导的犹太力量党，以及财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇领导的宗教犹太复国主义党。沙斯党与圣经犹太教联盟等极端正统派政党曾多次加入联合政府，尽管两党在2025年选择退出，但本轮选举后依然是利库德集团争取议席支持的核心谈判对象。
According to Al Jazeera, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu relies on traditional coalition pillars rooted in the far right and ultra-Orthodox factions. His principal governing allies include National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich's Religious Zionism party. The ultra-Orthodox factions Shas and United Torah Judaism have previously joined his coalitions on several occasions, and despite walking away in 2025, remain central to any parliamentary calculations by his Likud party to reach a governing bloc.
半岛电视台特约评论分析提到，内塔尼亚胡目前正面临涉及欺诈、背信和受贿指控的三起腐败案件审判。分析认为，免于在司法审判中被追责的个人考量，加剧了其维持执政地位的政治诉求，促使其在过去数年接纳并强化极右翼伙伴的诉求。2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击发生后，埃森科特与本尼·甘茨曾一度加入战时应急政府，但随后因认定内塔尼亚胡屈从于极右翼盟友的主张而相继离开内阁。
A Chatham House fellow writing for Al Jazeera noted that Netanyahu's decision-making continues to unfold against the backdrop of his ongoing criminal trials across three corruption cases, in which he faces charges of fraud, breach of trust, and bribery. The analysis observes that navigating these legal challenges has reinforced his determination to stay in office, motivating him to bolster partnerships with far-right leaders. Following the October 7, 2023 attacks, Gadi Eisenkot and Benny Gantz initially entered an emergency cabinet alongside Netanyahu, but both resigned after deciding the prime minister was yielding to demands from his far-right partners.
03反对派联盟整合与阿拉伯政党的关键两难Opposition Consolidation and the Arab-Party Dilemma
9月下旬，雅沙尔党、民主党人党、“以色列是我们的家园”党以及“共同”联盟签署不攻击协议，商定协同合作以推选新领导人。该阵营声明各方基于维护和加强以色列作为犹太及民主国家的目标走到一起。尽管反对派尚未正式公布执政联盟首脑人选，但退役中将加迪·埃森科特被视作最可能的总理候选人，与亚伊尔·拉皮德联合领导“共同”联盟的纳夫塔利·贝内特也是潜在人选。
In late September, four opposition factions—the Yashar party, the Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu, and the Together alliance—formalized a non-aggression pact, agreeing to coordinate their efforts to replace Netanyahu's administration. The participating movements stated they are unified in their commitment to preserve and strengthen Israel as a Jewish and democratic state. While the bloc has yet to designate an official prime ministerial nominee, former military chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot of Yashar is widely viewed as its most probable leader, alongside former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who co-leads the Together alliance with Yair Lapid.
代表以色列巴勒斯坦公民的联合名单与拉姆党预估共持有13席，这批席位被普遍视为决定执政权归属的关键变量。拉姆党领导人曼苏尔·阿巴斯表达了再度入阁意向，并提出打击社区暴力犯罪和解决住房等政策要求；联合名单则表示可在不入阁的前提下，以推进巴勒斯坦建国进程及打击有组织犯罪为条件提供信任投票“安全网”。然而，埃森科特等多数反对派领袖已公开排除吸纳阿拉伯政党入阁的方案，即便达成外部支持协议，联合内阁亦将持续面临议员倒戈和重大政策分歧风险。
The two Arab-led parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel, the Joint List and Ra'am, are projected to capture around 13 seats, positioning them as decisive parliamentary actors. Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas indicated an openness to join a governing coalition in exchange for addressing violent crime and discriminatory housing policies. Meanwhile, the Joint List offered external parliamentary safety-net backing during confidence votes if conditioned on a path toward Palestinian statehood and fighting crime. However, most opposition leaders, including Eisenkot, have firmly rejected bringing Arab-led parties into government, leaving any potential minority coalition vulnerable to internal policy splits and legislative defections.
04数字选战与投票率动员博弈Digital Campaign Warfare and Voter Turnout Operations
在竞选最后关头，各大党派将大量竞争转向网络空间。半岛电视台报道指出，社交平台X上充斥着针对主要候选人的AI深度伪造视频与算法广告。内塔尼亚胡阵营此前分享的虚构视频中，加迪·埃森科特被描绘成拥抱拉姆党领袖曼苏尔·阿巴斯；财政部长贝扎莱尔·斯莫特里奇发布的AI视频则虚构了最高法院法官及总检察长被强行拖离抗议现场的画面。此外，《国土报》披露称，原先用于对抗伊朗政府的网络水军已被调整用途，转而为利库德集团散播宣传，重点警告反对派领袖执政的风险。
In the final stretch of the election, the political contest shifted heavily into digital spaces. According to Al Jazeera, social media platform X became saturated with artificial intelligence deepfake videos and algorithmic ads targeting key candidates. A video shared earlier by Benjamin Netanyahu's camp depicted Gadi Eisenkot embracing Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, while Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich distributed an AI clip illustrating Supreme Court justices and the attorney general being dragged from an antigovernment demonstration. Furthermore, the Israeli daily Haaretz reported that dozens of online bot networks originally created to undermine Iran's government had been repurposed to circulate campaign messaging for Likud while attacking Eisenkot and Naftali Bennett.
为打破民调僵局，投票率动员成为关键策略。中央选举委员会此前因隐私担忧限制了催票软件Elector的使用，利库德集团随后转用名为Victory 26的应用程序。该应用不直接公开选民身份，但允许党派人员识别低投票率地区，手动登记已投票者名单并重点向未投票人员定向催票。埃塞克斯大学选举学者罗伊·祖尔分析表示，竞选团队利用AI与数据管理加剧“情感极化”，试图通过制造对对立阵营的抵触情绪拉动投票，缩小世俗城市约60%的投票率与极端正统派聚居地超过80%的高投票率差距。
Mobilizing voter turnout has become a focal strategy to resolve the polling deadlock. Following privacy restrictions imposed by the Central Elections Committee on the turnout tracking software Elector, Likud shifted to a new tool called Victory 26. Without exposing voter identities, the application allows party staff to detect areas with lagging turnout, record residents who cast ballots, and run targeted outreach on those who have not yet voted. Essex University voting specialist Roi Zur observed that campaigns deploy artificial intelligence and data management to cement affective polarization, striving to drive supporters to polling stations and narrow the turnout gap between secular cities, which average around 60 percent, and ultra-Orthodox communities exceeding 80 percent.
