特朗普签署对俄制裁豁免引发增供预期 国际原油价格应声下挫Oil Prices Slide as Trump Waives Russian Sanctions to Boost Fuel Supply

在华盛顿上周五免除对俄制裁后，交易商评估俄罗斯供应重返市场的可能性，推动国际原油期货在周一出现显著下行。全球基准布伦特原油期货结算价下跌2.38%，报每桶107.25美元；美国西得克萨斯中间基原油（WTI）期货下跌1.78%，报每桶99.60美元。两项指标原油的走弱直接反映出投资者对俄罗斯原油及精炼油品流向全球的增量预期。

Crude futures slid noticeably on Monday as market participants weighed the likelihood of Russian barrels re-entering global channels following the sanctions waivers signed by the White House late Friday. International benchmark Brent crude shed 2.38% to settle at $107.25 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate fell 1.78% to close at $99.60 per barrel. The downward move in both primary contracts directly reflected immediate trader expectations that Russian crude and fuel exports could expand.

白宫此次签署的行政命令不仅免除了以已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆命名的法案所规定的广泛新制裁，还暂时豁免了对俄罗斯柴油的制裁限制。按照美方10月9日公布的计划，俄罗斯将向美国和国际市场供应超过30万吨柴油。尽管燃油价格自2月下旬美以对伊朗开战以来持续居高不下，且多数经济学家认为此类制裁暂停措施对平抑美国国内油价收效甚微，但现货与期货市场仍在短期内消化了供应增多的预期。

The executive order bypassed sweeping new measures mandated under legislation named after the late US Senator Lindsey Graham, alongside a temporary suspension of restrictions on Russian diesel shipments. Under arrangements announced on October 9, Russia is slated to deliver more than 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel to the United States and international buyers. While fuel prices have remained elevated since the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran began in late February, and most economists contend that the diesel arrangement and sanctions relief will do little to curb domestic retail fuel costs, market desks quickly factored in the prospect of added volume.

针对外界对制裁豁免决定的质疑，特朗普周日在社交平台Truth Social发文阐明立场。他表示免除对俄制裁是一个非常简单的抉择，因为自己正在斡旋俄乌和平，不愿做出任何将莫斯科推离谈判桌的愚蠢举动。特朗普指责泽连斯基不在意停战，声称鉴于欧洲提供的巨额资金以及前任政府此前给予的资助，泽连斯基并不想结束这场战争，且或许从未想过结束。

Defending his move against mounting pushback, Donald Trump laid out his reasoning on Truth Social on Sunday, characterizing the waivers as an essential negotiating step. The US president wrote that his stance on Russia was straightforward because he was working to broker peace and did not want to commit a foolish error that would drive Moscow away from the bargaining table. Trump simultaneously attacked Volodymyr Zelenskyy, claiming the Ukrainian president showed no concern for a resolution and did not want to end the war given the financial aid supplied by European nations and previous funding delivered under former president Joe Biden.

除和平谈判的考量外，该行政举措紧密关联着美国国内选情。民调显示共和党在即将到来的11月3日期中选举中面临重挫风险，选民对自2月下旬伊朗战事爆发以来持续飙升的燃油成本强烈不满。特朗普批评乌克兰袭击俄罗斯炼油厂是明知此举将重创全球柴油市场，意在期中选举前打击共和党选情。美国国务卿马可·卢比奥为总统的决定进行了辩护，表示暂停新制裁是为了评估其对全球及美国经济的具体影响。

The sanctions relief also intersects directly with domestic political pressure ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. Opinion polls indicate Republicans could absorb sharp losses as voters register deep dissatisfaction over surging retail fuel prices, which have spiked since the Iran conflict began in late February. Trump charged that Ukrainian strikes against Russian refineries were aimed at harming Republicans before the vote despite knowing the attacks disrupt global diesel markets. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the suspension of new sanctions, explaining that the administration sought to evaluate their broader economic consequences for both the United States and global commerce.

面对美国推迟对俄制裁的决定，乌克兰总统泽连斯基周日在接受美国全国广播公司《与媒体见面》节目采访时表示，免除制裁将切实损害乌克兰的防御，并强化俄罗斯总统普京的战争能力。他指出不能将自己与侵略者普京相提并论，普京占领领土并杀害平民是恐怖主义行为，希望特朗普在此问题上秉持明确立场。泽连斯基警告称，如果美国转向支持俄罗斯，乌克兰将无法取胜，切断对乌支持将是一场历史性错误和巨大悲剧。

Responding to the sanctions waiver, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told NBC's 'Meet the Press' on Sunday that lifting penalties on Moscow directly harms Ukraine while strengthening Russian President Vladimir Putin's military campaign. Zelenskyy rejected any moral equivalence between himself and the Russian leader, describing Putin as an invading aggressor and a terrorist responsible for killing civilians, while voicing hope that Donald Trump would maintain a clear position. He warned that Ukraine cannot prevail if the United States aligns with Moscow, adding that abandoning US support would represent a historic mistake and a major tragedy.

泽连斯基同时透露，华盛顿此前曾暂停共享关键情报，导致乌克兰连续三天错失弹道导弹袭击预警，不过美方目前已恢复情报共享。在严厉批评美方限制乌克兰作战行动的同时，基辅并未关闭外交接触渠道。泽连斯基周日在社交平台发文称，乌美团队正就下一步外交行动保持密切沟通，他已与美国总统特使史蒂夫·威特科夫及贾里德·库什纳通报情况，强调战争必须结束，基辅正竭尽全力确保美方立场坚定以加速和平到来。

Zelenskyy disclosed that Washington had recently restored intelligence sharing after an interruption that left Ukraine without critical warning data on ballistic missile attacks for three days. While expressing dismay over US measures constraining Ukraine's defense, Kyiv maintained diplomatic engagement with Washington. Zelenskyy confirmed on Sunday that he had spoken with US presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner as part of nearly non-stop bilateral discussions focused on subsequent diplomatic steps, emphasizing that Ukraine is working to ensure an assertive US position that helps conclude the four-and-a-half-year war.

在市场权衡美国制裁豁免对俄罗斯能源流动潜在影响的同时，主要产油与过境区域的关键设施持续遭遇直接军事袭击。圣彼得堡市长亚历山大·别格洛夫在Telegram上表示，乌克兰周日发起大规模无人机袭击，导致圣彼得堡一处石油终端及油库起火。大宗商品情报机构Kpler的数据显示，该终端每天出口约12万桶精炼石油产品，主要为燃料油。乌克兰方面此前曾在特朗普于10月11日宣布俄乌达成休战后短暂暂停袭击俄罗斯能源设施，但随着此轮冲突爆发以来对圣彼得堡最大规模的无人机空袭展开，该设施的具体受损程度目前尚无法完全确认。

Even as financial markets weigh the potential return of Russian barrels under Washington's waivers, direct physical attacks against critical energy nodes in Europe and the Middle East continue to disrupt supply expectations. St. Petersburg Governor Alexander Beglov stated on Telegram that an oil terminal and fuel depot in the city caught fire on Sunday after Ukraine launched a major wave of drone strikes, which represents Kyiv's largest drone offensive against St. Petersburg since the war began. According to tracking data from analytics firm Kpler, the targeted Baltic terminal exports roughly 120,000 barrels per day of refined oil products, consisting mostly of fuel oil. Although Ukraine had briefly paused strikes against Russian energy infrastructure after Donald Trump declared an agreed truce between Kyiv and Moscow on October 11, the full extent of the physical damage to the terminal remains unclear.

除东欧战事对精炼中枢的破坏外，中东关键水道的航运安全亦出现恶化。英国海上贸易行动办公室（UKMTO）的事件通报显示，两艘油轮周五在沙特阿拉伯波斯湾沿岸附近水域遇袭。其中，一艘小型船只在朱拜勒东北方向78海里处向一艘不明身份的油轮发射了火箭推进榴弹（RPG），另一艘名为ST3的油轮则遭到不明发射物击中。自2月下旬美以对伊朗开战并导致德黑兰事实上封锁霍尔木兹海峡以来，伊朗在波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡及阿曼湾加大了针对油轮的袭击力度，试图切断该地区的原油出口，使得全球能源供应的不确定性居高不下。

The physical risks to global energy channels were further underscored by separate maritime incidents in the Middle East. Incident logs from the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) centre reported that two commercial tankers came under hostile fire on Friday off the Saudi Arabian coast in the Persian Gulf. A small boat fired a rocket-propelled grenade at an unidentified tanker 78 nautical miles northeast of Al Jubayl, while a second vessel, the tanker ST3, was struck by an unknown projectile. Iran has intensified attacks on tankers across the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Gulf of Oman in an effort to stifle crude oil exports from the region, following the outbreak of war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran in late February that effectively closed the vital transit passage.