美伊达成协议重启霍尔木兹海峡，国际油价大跌抹去战前涨幅Oil Prices Erase Wartime Gains as U.S.-Iran Agreement Reopens Strait of Hormuz

在周四的交易中，国际原油市场出现明显抛售，价格大幅回落。具体来看，美国8月份交割的轻质原油期货价格下跌了1.34%，降至每桶约69.4美元。与此同时，作为全球基准的布伦特原油期货价格也下跌了1.67%，跌至每桶72.51美元以下。这一跌幅使得两大国际基准油价均逼近今年2月下旬中东战争爆发前的水平。随着投资者对全球原油供应改善的预期升温，此前因冲突爆发而积累的战争溢价已基本被抹去。市场分析指出，随着霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航道的油轮开始恢复通行，此前因地缘政治紧张局势而引发的供应担忧得到了显著缓解，从而直接推动了油价向战前常态水平回归。

During Thursday's trading session, international crude markets experienced a significant sell-off, driving prices down toward levels not seen since before the conflict began. Specifically, U.S. crude for August delivery dropped by 1.34% to settle around $69.4 a barrel. At the same time, global benchmark Brent crude declined by 1.67% to trade under $72.51 a barrel. These sharp declines brought both major benchmarks close to their trading levels from late February, just before the outbreak of the war in the Middle East. The downward movement effectively erased the geopolitical risk premium that had built up over months of conflict. Investors actively sold off contracts as fears of prolonged supply disruptions eased, reacting to the news that stranded tankers were finally beginning to move through the crucial shipping lane, indicating a return to more normalized global supply conditions.

此次航道的重新开放源于美国与伊朗之间达成的一项关键协议。根据贸易追踪公司Kpler的数据，自美伊双方就重新开放霍尔木兹海峡这一关键航运路线达成协议以来，已有20多艘非伊朗油轮顺利通过该海峡。这些油轮累计装载了约3500万桶原油，它们的顺利通行标志着该地区长期以来的海上运输受阻问题开始得到实质性解决。

The reopening of the critical shipping route follows a pivotal agreement reached between the United States and Iran. According to data from trade-tracking firm Kpler, more than 20 non-Iranian oil tankers have successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz since the two nations finalized the accord to reopen the waterway. These vessels are carrying an estimated 35 million barrels of crude oil combined, representing a significant resumption of maritime energy transport through the region.

在美伊达成该项协议之前，由于德黑兰方面在冲突初期关闭了霍尔木兹海峡，这些非伊朗船只已被困在波斯湾内长达三个多月。随着协议的落实和航道的重新启用，这批积压已久的原油运力得以释放，极大地缓解了全球能源市场对供应中断的担忧，并直接推动了国际油价的持续回落。

Prior to this bilateral agreement, these non-Iranian vessels had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months after Tehran effectively shut down the strategic waterway during the early stages of the conflict. The breakthrough agreement and the subsequent resumption of shipping traffic have released this massive backlog of crude, significantly easing global supply anxieties and driving international oil prices back down.

这些顺利驶离的非伊朗籍油轮在波斯湾内已被困了三个多月。在今年2月下旬中东战争爆发的初期，德黑兰方面采取行动，实际上关闭了霍尔木兹海峡这一战略水道，导致大量非伊朗船只无法正常通行，被迫在海湾内长期滞留。这一长达数月的封锁不仅阻断了关键的国际海上能源通道，也让全球原油供应面临持续的紧张局势。

The non-Iranian vessels now departing the region had been stranded in the Persian Gulf for more than three months. Tehran effectively shut down the strategic waterway early in the conflict, which erupted in late February, trapping numerous commercial ships and halting critical maritime energy traffic. This prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz created significant bottlenecks and kept millions of barrels of crude oil from reaching global markets.

随着美伊双方达成重新开放航道的协议，这些积压的油轮终于得以重新启航。根据贸易追踪公司Kpler的数据，这批承载着约3500万桶原油的船只在通过霍尔木兹海峡后，目前正驶向各自的终点站。预计其中绝大多数油轮将于8月初陆续抵达位于亚洲的目的地，届时这批庞大的原油库存将正式进入亚洲市场，为全球能源供应链提供实质性的补充。

Following the bilateral agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the shipping route, these tankers have finally resumed their journeys. According to data from trade-tracking firm Kpler, the vessels are carrying approximately 35 million barrels of crude oil. Most of these non-Iranian tankers are currently expected to arrive at their designated destinations in Asia by early August, bringing a substantial volume of previously trapped supply to Asian energy markets.

随着霍尔木兹海峡的航运逐步恢复正常，金融市场也迎来了积极的连锁反应。花旗银行指出，对于此前因美伊冲突爆发、原油近端价格飙升而遭受重创的大宗商品曲线套利策略而言，最糟糕的时期可能已经过去。在此前的冲突期间，由于短期原油价格大涨，做空近月合约并买入远期合约的套利交易受到了严重打击，而如今航道的重新开放为这类策略提供了缓解空间。

As shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz begins to normalize, financial markets are experiencing a notable shift. Citi reported that the worst may now be over for commodities curve-carry strategies. These investment strategies, which typically short near-term contracts and purchase further-dated ones, had been severely punished during the U.S.-Iran conflict due to the sudden spike in front-end oil prices. The resumption of shipping flows is expected to bring relief to these market participants.

展望未来，花旗银行已将重大局势降温作为其基本预测情景。该行预计，随着霍尔木兹海峡的航运流量完全恢复正常，布伦特原油价格在未来6至12个月内将进一步下跌至每桶60至65美元。此外，花旗银行还建议投资者淡化今年夏季可能出现的任何暂时性油价反弹，表明市场整体供应前景正趋于充裕。

Looking ahead, Citi stated that a major de-escalation in the region has now become its base-case scenario. The bank forecasts that Brent crude prices will decline to between $60 and $65 a barrel over the next six to 12 months as shipping operations return to normal. Furthermore, Citi analysts advised investors that any temporary rally in oil prices during the summer months should be faded, reflecting expectations of a more stable global supply outlook.