美伊停火协议未能恢复霍尔木兹海峡交通，国际油价小幅上涨Oil Prices Edge Higher as Hormuz Traffic Stalls Despite U.S.-Iran Ceasefire

尽管美伊双方在周二宣布暂停敌对行动，但霍尔木兹海峡的实际通航情况并未好转。航运数据显示，在协议生效后的首个24小时内，仅有5艘散货船通过了该水域。虽然周四的过境船只增加到7艘，但这一数字仍远低于正常水平。由于部分船只在过境时会关闭或伪造GPS追踪器，确切的流量数据可能存在偏差，但分析人士一致认为，目前的流量仅是战前平均水平的极小部分。

Despite the announcement of a two-week pause in fighting on Tuesday, shipping remains at a functional standstill in the Strait of Hormuz. Market intelligence firm Kpler reported that only five vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday, down from 11 the previous day, while seven transited on Thursday. While exact numbers are difficult to verify because some ships turn off or spoof their GPS trackers during transit, the current volume is described as a 'trickle' compared to historical norms. The continued paralysis of this vital artery, which handles a significant portion of the world's daily oil consumption, remains the primary driver of market anxiety.

美国总统特朗普周四通过社交媒体平台对伊朗施压，指责德黑兰方面可能在停火期间对过境油轮非法征收费用。特朗普明确表示，如果伊朗正在这样做，那么它“最好现在就停止”。这一表态在停火协议达成不到两天的时间里，为脆弱的局势增添了新的变数。特朗普此前曾强调，临时停火的前提是伊朗必须同意“完全、立即且安全地开放霍尔木兹海峡”。

President Donald Trump escalated tensions on Thursday by warning Iran against imposing illegal fees on oil tankers attempting to navigate the Strait of Hormuz. In a post on Truth Social, Trump stated that Iran 'better stop now' if such practices were occurring, a move that placed additional strain on the fragile ceasefire less than 48 hours after its inception. The President has previously conditioned the temporary truce on the Islamic Republic's agreement to the 'COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING' of the waterway, suggesting that any perceived obstruction could jeopardize the deal.

此次停火协议的达成离不开巴基斯坦在过去几周内的积极斡旋。作为华盛顿和德黑兰之间的中间人，巴基斯坦成功将双方带回了谈判桌。根据安排，巴基斯坦将于周五开始主持美伊之间的直接对话，目标是达成一项更持久的协议，以彻底解决航道封锁问题。然而，华盛顿和德黑兰目前仍在互相指责对方未能履行停火协议的条款，这使得即将举行的谈判前景充满挑战。

The current ceasefire is the result of intensive mediation efforts by Pakistan, which has acted as a bridge between Washington D.C. and Tehran over the last few weeks. Pakistan is set to host direct talks between the two nations starting tomorrow, with the primary goal of securing a more permanent resolution to the maritime crisis. However, the diplomatic path remains rocky, as both Washington and Tehran have already accused each other of failing to honor the specific terms of the truce agreement, casting a shadow over the upcoming negotiations in Islamabad.

白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特在白宫外对媒体表示，目前霍尔木兹海峡的交通仍处于“严密限制”之下。他指出，由于该航道对全球能源供应至关重要，哪怕只有一艘油轮能够安全通过，也将具有重大的象征意义和实际经济价值。目前，市场分析人士认为，在看到航道真正恢复正常运作之前，油价很难出现大幅回落。美伊双方对协议执行情况的争议，以及特朗普的强硬表态，都让投资者对能源供应的稳定性保持警惕。

National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told reporters outside the White House that traffic through the key shipping route remains 'tightly throttled.' He argued that because the strait is so vital to global energy security, the successful passage of even a single tanker would represent a significant breakthrough for the global economy. Market analysts suggest that oil prices are unlikely to see a sustained decline until there is concrete evidence of normalized operations. The ongoing disputes over compliance and the aggressive rhetoric from the U.S. administration continue to keep investors wary of potential supply disruptions.