英国军情五处警告俄罗斯与伊朗加剧混合威胁MI5 Chief Warns Russia and Iran Are Ramping Up Hybrid Threats Against UK
英国军情五处处长肯·麦卡勒姆于2026年10月13日在伦敦总部发表年度演讲时表示，来自外国对手的国家安全威胁数量翻了两番，致使该机构针对国家威胁的行动任务规模已与反恐行动基本相当。麦卡勒姆指出，军情五处目前在应对敌对国家威胁方面投入的资源已经超过冷战时期。他将俄罗斯定为首要侵略者，称莫斯科因在乌克兰战事进展缓慢且近千名秘密特工遭驱逐，正避免与北约爆发常规冲突，转而雇佣犯罪代理人在欧洲策划攻击；同时伊朗也在扩大针对英国的混合行动，过去一年已产生50起相关逮捕事件，目标除犹太社区外还延伸至军事设施。与此同时，英国反恐部门面临新旧安全压力交织，一方面恐怖分子试图结合人工智能与无人机技术改进袭击手段，极端组织可能利用AI研发生物武器的潜在风险引发安全部门重视；另一方面，受网络驱动的低龄化极右翼恐怖主义显著上升，促使英国全面动用2023年《国家安全法》应对多重国家威胁。
MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum warned on October 13, 2026, that foreign state threats have quadrupled, pushing the domestic intelligence service's state-threat operational missions to roughly equal scale with counter-terrorism operations. Delivering his annual address at Thames House in London, McCallum stated that MI5 is now committing more resources to countering hostile foreign powers than during the Cold War. He singled out Russia as aggressor number one, explaining that minimal and costly battlefield progress in Ukraine alongside nearly 1,000 covert expulsions has forced the Kremlin to avoid conventional conflict with NATO and scramble to pay criminal proxies for attempted attacks across Europe. McCallum also revealed that Iran is escalating its hybrid campaign on British soil, resulting in 50 arrests over the past year as hostile targeting extends from Jewish communities to military sites. The intelligence chief underscored that these foreign campaigns coincide with heightened domestic counter-terrorism pressures, as extremists seek to combine artificial intelligence with drones and test bioweapon applications, while youth-skewed extreme right-wing radicalization has driven increased enforcement under the 2023 National Security Act.
01国家安全威胁激增：MI5行动重心历史性转变Surge in State Threats: A Historic Operational Shift for MI5
在伦敦泰晤士大楼发表的年度演说中，英国国内安全机构负责人麦卡勒姆具体阐述了军情五处任务重心的历史性转变。麦卡勒姆指出，来自外国对手的国家安全威胁数量翻了两番，使得国家威胁行动与传统反恐任务在工作量和任务规模上首次达到相当水准。军情五处为此调拨了超出冷战时期的工作力量与资源预算，用以遏制外国势力在英国境内的敌对干预。
Delivering his annual assessment at Thames House, MI5 Director General Sir Ken McCallum outlined a historic structural shift within the domestic intelligence agency, explaining that foreign adversary threats have quadrupled. This steep expansion has brought counter-hostile state missions to parity with long-standing counter-terrorism operations in daily volume and operational scale. McCallum confirmed that the service is now committing more internal resources to combating foreign powers than it deployed at the peak of the Cold War.
麦卡勒姆将这种多线并进的安全形势归因于外部环境的剧烈变动。他表示，尽管反恐依然是安全部门的核心防线，但中俄伊等多国主导的敌对活动在广度与复杂度上同步加剧，迫使英国国内情报机关在战术分配上重组结构。英国情报人员眼下不仅要应对长期的恐怖主义阴谋，还必须分拨等量人力跟踪外国政权的隐蔽网络与复合型安全挑衅。
McCallum attributed this realignment to concurrent hostile efforts by foreign regimes, including Russia, Iran, and China, which have substantially increased both the frequency and complexity of their interference on British soil. While counter-terrorism remains a core agency mandate, intelligence officers must now distribute equal investigative bandwidth toward neutralizing state-sponsored operations and monitoring covert state-directed networks alongside traditional militant threats.
02俄罗斯的混合战争：间谍网受挫后转向雇佣犯罪代理人Russian Hybrid Warfare: Relying on Criminal Proxies After Spy Expulsions
麦卡勒姆在阐述莫斯科的战术转变时表示，俄罗斯在对乌克兰的全面军事行动中进展极小且代价惨重，因而选择停止对北约盟国发动直接常规冲突。他指出，克里姆林宫深知直接跨过红线将引发北约集体应对是愚蠢之举，因此转向在欧洲各国推进混合战争，意图借此扰乱欧洲各国的社会秩序与安全稳定。
Detailing Moscow's operational maneuvers, McCallum stated that Russia is waging hybrid warfare while deliberately avoiding actions that could trigger a collective military response from NATO. He observed that the Kremlin recognizes crossing into direct conventional conflict with the military alliance would be foolish, choosing instead to rattle European nations as its battlefield progress in the full-scale invasion of Ukraine remains minimal and horrifically costly.
为弥补情报人员网络遭受的瓦解，俄罗斯已全面改变了实施敌对行动的具体手段。麦卡勒姆称，俄乌冲突爆发以来，欧洲各国驱逐了近千名俄罗斯秘密特工，摧毁了莫斯科原有的传统隐蔽网络。这一挫折迫使克里姆林宫四处寻觅并向各类刑事犯罪分子提供资金，驱使这批代理人在英国境内策划实施袭击企图。麦卡勒姆直言，这种花钱指使罪犯的行径暴露出俄罗斯海外行动能力的孱弱，绝非拥有战略主动权的大国应有的作为。
McCallum explained that this hybrid campaign relies heavily on criminal proxies following devastating disruptions to Moscow's intelligence network. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the expulsion of nearly 1,000 Russian covert operatives has eviscerated the Kremlin's traditional clandestine footprint across Europe, weakening its global toolkit. Left with diminished operational capabilities, Russian handlers are now scrambling to pay ordinary criminals to execute attempted attacks on British soil, which McCallum assessed as the behavior of a weakened adversary rather than a great power holding the strategic upper hand.
03伊朗混合攻势加剧：犹太社区与军事设施成为目标Escalating Iranian Campaign: Targeting Jewish Communities and Military Sites
在揭示莫斯科战术的同时，麦卡勒姆警告称，德黑兰方面同样在英国本土加速推进混合行动。根据军情五处掌握的执法记录，英国在过去一年中累计执行了50起与伊朗关联活动相关的逮捕行动。麦卡勒姆表示，伊朗的大部分敌对侵略最初集中针对犹太社区，但德黑兰近期的侦察与行动触角已出现显著转移，开始把目标扩大到军事地点等设防更严密的目标。
Addressing expanding threats beyond Moscow, McCallum warned that Tehran is concurrently accelerating a hybrid campaign on British soil. Enforcement operations tracked by MI5 have resulted in 50 arrests over Iran-linked activities in the past year alone. McCallum detailed that while a significant portion of this Iranian aggression was originally directed against Jewish communities, hostile planners have since enacted a major operational shift, expanding their hostile targeting toward harder objectives such as UK military sites.
面对德黑兰不断延伸的行动网络，英国安全部门正频繁启用2023年通过的《国家安全法》。麦卡勒姆说明，这部旨在打击受外国势力指使从事危害英国利益活动的法律，目前正处于高频执法运用阶段。除了应对伊朗对敏感设施的侦察与渗透之外，反间谍机构还广泛动用该项法律工具，同步打击俄罗斯与中国对英国本土安全带来的多方挑战与潜在威胁。
To counter this widening hostile footprint, British authorities are relying heavily on the National Security Act, a 2023 statute crafted to prosecute individuals working against domestic interests on behalf of hostile foreign states. McCallum stated that the legislation is currently in heavy operational use by law enforcement and intelligence officers. Beyond disrupting Iran's hostile efforts against domestic installations, the statutory powers are actively deployed to combat parallel threats originating from Russia and China.
04技术前沿新隐患：恐怖分子利用AI与生物武器潜在风险Emerging Tech Threats: Terrorist AI Exploitation and Bioweapon Risks
在评估传统国家行动的同时，麦卡勒姆向泰晤士大楼的与会者披露了极端分子利用新兴技术带来的新型安全隐患。麦卡勒姆证实，情报机构已经查获恐怖分子试图利用人工智能优化其侦察活动并改进袭击方式的实际案例，其中配备人工智能的无人机正在为恐怖袭击模式增加新的战术变种。英国安全部门必须在技术演进中保持警惕，遏制极端势力借由自动化工具提升作战效能。
Alongside conventional hostile state activities, McCallum disclosed emerging security perils tied to violent extremists leveraging advanced technologies. McCallum confirmed that British intelligence has caught terrorists seeking to exploit artificial intelligence to sharpen their reconnaissance capabilities and improve attack methodologies, with AI-enabled drones introducing a dangerous operational twist to ongoing threat profiles. MI5 warned that domestic defense structures must constantly stay ahead of extremist actors seeking to upgrade their field tactics through automated systems.
除了常规袭击手段的技术改进，麦卡勒姆坦言情报部门最深切担忧的潜在风险，是暴力极端组织利用人工智能研发生物武器。他澄清表示，尽管这类新型生物武器威胁目前尚未成为现实，但人工智能技术拥有改变现有乃至全新生物武器威胁态势的潜力。为了应对这一风险，包括军情五处、政府通信总部（GCHQ）和军情六处在内的英国情报界正与英国人工智能安全研究所紧密合作，共同建立防御体系。
Beyond automated reconnaissance, McCallum told Thames House that the specific threat causing him the greatest concern is extremist groups harnessing artificial intelligence to develop biological weapons. While clarifying that this bioweapon risk has not yet been realized, the intelligence chief warned that advanced computational models possess the latent potential to alter the stakes surrounding both existing pathogen designs and entirely new biological weapons. To manage these prospective hazards, the UK Intelligence Community—encompassing MI5, GCHQ, and MI6—is collaborating closely with the globally respected UK AI Security Institute to pre-empt technological exploitation by violent networks.
05英国本土反恐压力：极右翼激进化年轻化与威胁等级评定Domestic Terror Pressures: Youth-Skewed Far-Right Radicalization and Threat Levels
在国家威胁与技术风险之外，英国本土反恐形势同样面临持续压力。英国于4月将全国恐怖主义威胁级别五年来首次上调至“严重”，意味着发生恐怖袭击的可能性极高。麦卡勒姆指出，基地组织和“伊斯兰国”等伊斯兰极端组织仍在策划并煽动袭击，而极右翼恐怖主义的抬头也构成了导致安全风险上升的重要推手。
Alongside state-sponsored operations and technological perils, British intelligence faces intense pressure across domestic counter-terrorism fronts. In April, the UK raised its national terrorism threat level to severe for the first time in five years, establishing that an attack is highly likely. McCallum explained that while Islamist groups including Al Qaeda and Islamic State continue to inspire and direct plots, extreme right-wing terrorism has driven the heightened security risk in significant part.
针对极右翼思潮的演变，麦卡勒姆表示过去一年最显著的趋势是反移民和反穆斯林极端怨恨情绪转化为恐怖袭击企图的案件增加。在互联网推动下，极右翼恐怖主义呈现明显的低龄化特征。军情五处近几个月在英国境内调查了一名激进化为极右翼分子的13岁涉案人员，该调查所获取的情报协助英国的一家国际合作伙伴在其本土阻止了一起致命袭击。
Examining far-right radicalization trends, McCallum observed that over the past year, the most marked development has been a surge in cases where extremist anti-immigration and anti-Muslim grievances tip directly into terrorist intent. Driven by the internet, this extreme right-wing activity tends to skew heavily toward younger age demographics. Demonstrating this shift, MI5 recently investigated a radicalized extreme right-wing 13-year-old inside the UK, uncovering intelligence insights that enabled an international partner agency to thwart a lethal attack on foreign soil.
