拉脱维亚举行议会选举：安全威胁与通胀压力主导选情Latvia Holds Parliamentary Election Dominated by Security Concerns and Inflation
拉脱维亚于2026年10月3日举行自1991年脱离苏联独立以来的第11次议会选举，约150万名合格选民投票角逐议会全部100个席位。现任总理安德里斯·库尔伯格斯领导的中右翼统一名单党在民调中以约14%至20%的支持率保持领先，但执政联盟内的盟友支持率出现下滑，预计投票后将迎来复杂且漫长的多党组阁谈判。这场选举的主要争论集中于俄罗斯带来的安全威胁与国内持续上涨的生活成本压力。作为欧洲联盟与北约成员国，拉脱维亚已将国防预算提升至国内生产总值（GDP）的近5%，并在投票期间获得了北约部署的4架德国欧洲战斗机协助护卫领空。尽管反对继续向乌克兰提供军援的民粹主义政党“主权权力”在民调中获得超过9%的支持率并有望成为第二大党，但由于多数主要政党已明确排除与其合作的可能，各方预计选举结果不会改变拉脱维亚亲欧盟与亲乌克兰的基本外交路线。
Latvia opened polling stations on Saturday, October 3, 2026, for its 11th parliamentary election since regaining independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, with approximately 1.5 million eligible voters casting ballots for the 100 seats in the Saeima. Incumbent Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who took office in May, leads the race with his centre-right United List polling between 14 percent and 20 percent. However, the governing coalition is projected to emerge weakened, pointing toward complex and potentially protracted post-election negotiations to form a workable majority. The election campaign has been shaped primarily by regional security concerns linked to Russia's war in Ukraine alongside domestic strains from inflation, low wages, and rising living costs. Latvia has raised its defence budget to nearly 5 percent of gross domestic product, while NATO deployed four German Eurofighter jets to patrol national airspace during voting. Although the populist Sovereign Power party polls above 9 percent while opposing military aid to Ukraine, major parties have ruled out forming a government with it, leaving the country's pro-European Union and pro-Ukraine foreign policy trajectory intact.
01大选开启与投票概况Polling Opens Across Latvia
拉脱维亚各地投票站于格林尼治标准时间10月3日早间5时正式开放，并定于当晚17时关闭。本次议会选举采用比例代表制，共有14个参选政党及联盟名单参与争夺拉脱维亚议会的全部100个席位。在约150万名合格选民中，民调数据显示大约五分之一的选民在临近投票日前仍未作出最终抉择，这为议会的最终席位分布带来了诸多不确定性。
Polling stations opened across Latvia at 05:00 GMT on Saturday, October 3, and are scheduled to close at 17:00 GMT. A total of 14 electoral lists are contesting the 100 seats in the unicameral Saeima under a proportional representation system. Out of approximately 1.5 million eligible voters, pre-election polling showed that roughly one in five citizens remained undecided in the final stretch of campaigning, leaving the ultimate distribution of parliamentary seats open to variation.
依据拉脱维亚选举规则，政党必须跨过5%的全国得票率门槛才能进入议会。民意测验机构的预测指出，在14个参选名单中，预计仅有7个政党能够成功突破该门槛，其余政党将面临被淘汰的局面。部分计票结果预计将在周六当晚陆续出炉，初步官方结果则计划于周日对外公布，投票站关闭后还将发布出口民调数据。
Under Latvian electoral rules, political parties must clear a 5 percent minimum threshold of the national vote to gain representation in the Saeima. Surveys conducted by polling institutes indicate that only seven of the 14 competing lists are likely to secure enough support to enter the next parliament. Exit polls are expected shortly after voting concludes, followed by partial results on Saturday evening and preliminary official results on Sunday.
02俄乌冲突背景与国防安全主线Security Focus and Defence Commitments
自2022年俄罗斯对乌克兰发起军事行动以来，拉脱维亚将俄罗斯视为主要国家安全威胁，两国的接壤边界及地缘态势使防务成为历次政治辩论的核心。拉脱维亚通过立法承诺将国防开支提升至国内生产总值近5%，成为北约成员国中防务投入比例最高的国家之一。这一预算倾斜在强化军事战备的同时，也压缩了其他国内领域的财政支出空间。多数有望进入新一届议会的政党均表态支持维持高水平军费，并持续向基辅提供援助。
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Latvia has viewed its eastern neighbour as its principal national security threat, placing territorial defence at the centre of political debate. Riga has committed by law to allocate nearly 5 percent of its gross domestic product to defence, establishing one of the highest military spending ratios in NATO. While this fiscal posture expands border readiness and sustained aid to Kyiv, it limits available resources for other public services. Most political parties projected to enter parliament have affirmed their support for maintaining elevated defence expenditures.
无人机过境事件直接影响了该国的政治进程。今年5月，前任政府因处理乌克兰方向飞来的过境无人机入侵事件引发强烈争议而倒台，促成了库尔伯格斯接任总理。为防范潜在空中威胁并确保选举平稳进行，拉脱维亚政府向盟友提出请求，北约随后派遣了4架德国欧洲战斗机在投票期间执行拉脱维亚领空巡逻任务。
Airspace security also triggered the recent leadership transition in Riga. In May, the previous government collapsed following a political dispute and public backlash surrounding stray drone incursions linked to the war in Ukraine, leading to the appointment of Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs. In response to a direct request from Latvian authorities to safeguard national airspace during Saturday's election, NATO deployed four German Eurofighter fighter jets to carry out patrol missions across the Baltic nation.
拉脱维亚大选背景与政局演变脉络Timeline: Latvia's Road to the 2026 Parliamentary Election
梳理拉脱维亚从恢复独立、俄乌冲突爆发到2026年大选的关键政治与安全节点。
Traces the key political and security developments leading up to Latvia's 2026 parliamentary election.
拉脱维亚脱离苏联恢复独立，确立议会民主体制。此后该国政坛格局高度分散，政党得票率鲜少超过20%，联合政府成为制度常态。
Latvia regained independence from the Soviet Union, establishing a fragmented parliamentary system where multi-party coalition governments became the standard norm.
俄罗斯对乌克兰发起全面进攻，拉脱维亚视邻国为主要安全威胁，依法将国防预算提高至近GDP的5%，同时传统亲俄政党和谐党在同年大选中丧失议席。
Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, leading Latvia to view Russia as its top threat, raise defense spending toward 5% of GDP, and unseat the pro-Russian Harmony party.
因应对乌克兰战争相关的无人机越境坠落事件引发政治争议与公众反弹，拉脱维亚前政府倒台，右翼“联合名单”党人安德里斯·库尔伯格斯随后出任总理。
Following public backlash and political disputes over stray drone incursions linked to the Ukraine war, Latvia's government collapsed, elevating Andris Kulbergs to prime minister.
拉脱维亚约150万选民开始投票选出议会100个席位。在北约派遣战机巡航警戒的背景下，选情主要受俄乌冲突安全焦虑及物价通胀压力主导。
Polling opened for roughly 1.5 million voters to elect the 100-seat Saeima, with the election dominated by Russia security concerns and inflation as NATO jets patrolled airspace.
03物价压力与国内民生关切Economic Strains and Social Debates
在国家安全议题之外，国内经济与民生困境成为拉脱维亚选民的核心关切。拉脱维亚属于波罗的海三国中经济相对薄弱的国家，持续的物价上涨与偏低的工资水平加剧了普通家庭的生活成本压力。与此同时，拉脱维亚公共医疗体系面临长期承压，人口持续外流与老龄化加剧等结构性挑战，也构成了选战期间各方争论的重点。民粹主义政治派系借此批评政府的财政资源分配，主张应优先解决国内民生问题并减缓经济脱钩带来的冲击。
Alongside external defence issues, domestic economic pressures and social hardships have formed a central focus for Latvian voters throughout the campaign. As the least affluent of the three Baltic states, Latvia faces widespread public dissatisfaction over persistent living-cost increases and sluggish wage growth. Furthermore, the country's public healthcare system is experiencing prolonged strain, while long-term population decline and demographic ageing present unresolved structural challenges. Populist factions have sought to capitalise on these grievances by arguing that heavy financial commitments abroad leave insufficient funding for urgent domestic social needs.
人口结构特征同样深刻影响着本次投票格局。俄裔居民约占拉脱维亚总人口的四分之一，以往该群体的选票多集中于主打族群认同的政党（如2022年失去议会席位的和谐党）。然而在本届选举中，俄裔选民的投票倾向出现了显著变化，越来越多的选民不再单纯依据身份认同进行抉择，而是将经济保障与社会福利等实际民生议题置于优先考量位置。
Demographic factors are also reshaping voter alignments across the country. Ethnic Russians account for approximately one-quarter of Latvia's population, a demographic bloc that historically voted along identity lines and backed the Harmony party before it lost parliamentary representation in 2022. In this election cycle, observers note a marked shift among Russian-speaking citizens, who are increasingly basing their electoral choices on concrete economic concerns, healthcare access, and social protection rather than ethnic identity politics alone.
04党派格局与组阁前景展望Party Dynamics and Coalition Outlook
拉脱维亚现任执政联盟由统一名单党、新统一党、绿党和农民联盟以及民族联盟组成。选前民调显示，该执政集团难以按现有结构维持多数，两位盟友支持率的滑落使库尔伯格斯需要寻求新的合作伙伴。由尤利娅·斯捷潘年科领导的民粹主义政党“主权权力”凭借聚焦国内经济问题与反对军援乌克兰的主张，在民调中获得了超过9%的支持，有望成为议会第二大党。但因其被外界批评持亲俄立场，多数主流大党已公开排除与其组建联合政府的可能。
Latvia's current governing coalition comprises the United List, New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers, and the National Alliance. Pre-election surveys indicate that the existing four-party bloc is unlikely to retain power in its current form following a decline in voter backing for key coalition partners, forcing Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs to explore alternative alignments. The populist Sovereign Power party, led by Julija Stepanenko, has surged to over 9 percent in opinion polls by capitalising on domestic economic anxieties and opposing military aid to Kyiv. Although projected to become the second-largest force in the Saeima, its exclusion by most mainstream parties rules out an entry into government.
相比之下，由商人艾纳斯·施莱瑟斯领导的民粹民族主义政党“拉脱维亚第一”民调支持率约在9%左右，同时支持乌克兰，被视作库尔伯格斯更具可行性的潜在结盟对象。此外，主张强化社会福利保障并持续支持乌克兰的中左翼亲欧政党“进步人士”民调支持率约为6%。拉脱维亚政坛长期呈现高度碎片化特征，政党得票率极少突破20%，多党联合执政已成常态。投票结束后，围绕各派力量平衡的组阁谈判预计将迅速展开并经历漫长磋商。
By contrast, the populist nationalist Latvia First party, led by businessman Ainars Slesers, polls around 9 percent while maintaining support for Ukraine, positioning itself as a more viable governing partner for Kulbergs. In addition, the pro-European social democratic Progressives party is polling at approximately 6 percent on a platform advocating enhanced social safety nets and continued assistance to Kyiv. With Latvian politics structurally fragmented and individual parties rarely exceeding 20 percent of the vote, coalition governments remain the institutional norm. Observers anticipate that formal negotiations to construct a parliamentary majority will prove lengthy and demanding once preliminary results are released.
