以色列迎来战后首次议会选举 民调显示两大阵营均难过半Israel Holds First Post-October 7 Election as Polls Project Governing Deadlock
以色列定于周二举行议会选举，这是2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击及多方战事爆发以来的首次全国大选。选前最新民调显示，现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡领导的右翼及极端正统派阵营，与前以军参谋长加迪·埃曾科特领导的反对派阵营，均未能达到组建政府所需的61个议席多数门槛。以色列广播公司民调预计反对派联盟赢得52席，内塔尼亚胡阵营拿下50席，其余席位归属独立党派与阿拉伯政党。由于两大犹太主流阵营目前均已基本排除与代表阿拉伯公民的政党组建联合政府，选举结果使以色列面临组阁僵局、产生脆弱少数派政府或再次举行选举的局面。 双方选战分歧主要集中在内部治理议题上，包括对10月7日袭击防务失职的国家调查诉求、削弱法院权力的司法改革法案，以及极端正统派男性的兵役豁免争端。在安全战略方面，埃曾科特与现政府立场趋近，已明确表示短期内不会从加沙和黎巴嫩撤军，并拒绝背书两国方案。这场选举将决定以色列的执政格局与内政走向，加沙地带巴勒斯坦人普遍认为基本防务围困政策难有明显改变。
Israel is set to hold parliamentary elections on Tuesday, marking the country's first national vote since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks and the subsequent regional military conflicts. Final opinion polls project a fractured parliament in which neither Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and ultra-Orthodox bloc nor the opposition coalition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is on track to secure the 61-seat majority required to govern the 120-seat Knesset. A projection by public broadcaster KAN gave the opposition alliance 52 seats against 50 for Netanyahu's camp, leaving unaligned lists and Arab-majority parties holding the remainder. With mainstream Jewish parties across both major blocs largely ruling out governing partnerships with Arab-led factions, the vote leaves Israel confronting potential political deadlock, a fragile minority government, or another round of elections. Campaign clashes have centered on domestic governance, including demands for an official national inquiry into security failures surrounding the October 2023 attacks, contentious judicial overhaul laws curbing court oversight, and military draft exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men. In contrast, frontrunners share common ground on core defense positions: Eisenkot has ruled out withdrawing troops from Gaza and Lebanon anytime soon while declining to endorse a two-state solution. While the outcome will decide the leadership of the government, displaced Palestinians in Gaza anticipate little change in military and siege policies.
01大选背景与微弱民调差距Election Context and Narrow Poll Margins
周二的投票是以色列在2023年10月7日哈马斯袭击以及随后加沙战事爆发后经历的首次全国大选。在此期间，以色列军方与美军在2026年2月展开针对伊朗的联合军事行动，战线多方蔓延。以色列议会选举不直接由选民推选总理，而是通过比例代表制分配议会全部120个席位。参选政党必须跨过3.25%的全国得票率门槛方可进入议会，通常任期为四年。由于单一政党极少赢得过半数席位，选后组阁由总统授权最有希望拼凑出61席多数的议员主导组建联合政府。
Tuesday's ballot marks Israel's first national election since the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas and the subsequent military campaign in the Gaza Strip. The vote also follows joint military operations with the United States against Iran initiated in February 2026. Under the Israeli electoral system, voters cast ballots for party slates rather than directly electing a prime minister. The 120 seats in the Knesset are allocated through proportional representation, with parties required to cross a 3.25 percent national threshold to gain parliamentary representation for a four-year term. Because outright single-party majorities are practically non-existent, the president typically tasks the lawmaker best positioned to assemble a 61-seat majority with forming a governing coalition.
在选前民调禁令于上周五生效前，多家民意测验显示两大主流阵营均难获得过半数。以色列广播公司民调预计，前以军参谋长埃曾科特牵头的反对派四党联盟可获得52席，内塔尼亚胡领导的利库德集团及极右翼、超正统派盟友预计拿到50席。剩余席位落在未结盟党派以及拉阿姆党与联合名单等阿拉伯主要政治派别手中。若选后未能达成61席执政协议，以色列可能成立依靠外部支持的少数派政府，或被迫在数月后再次重选。
Final opinion polls published before a survey blackout took effect on Friday show that both principal blocs remain short of the threshold needed to govern outright. A survey by public broadcaster KAN projected that the opposition alliance led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot would win 52 seats, compared with 50 seats for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition of Likud and far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners. The remaining seats are projected for unaffiliated lists and Arab-majority factions, including Ra'am and the Joint List. If post-election negotiations fail to assemble a 61-seat majority, Israel faces the prospect of a fragile minority administration or repeat elections next spring.
以色列战后大选前局势演变Road to Israel's First Post-October 7 Election
梳理从内塔尼亚胡组阁、加沙冲突爆发到战后首次议会选举陷入政治僵局的关键节点。
Traces the key political and military milestones leading up to Israel's first post-October 7 parliamentary election.
内塔尼亚胡领导右翼利库德集团，联合极右翼与极端正统派政党在2022年末重新执政。该执政联盟此后因停火争议与极端正统派兵役问题陷入分歧。
Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu returned to power in late 2022 by forming a government with far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners, an alliance later strained by ceasefire disputes and conscription.
哈马斯突袭以色列致约1200人死亡、逾250人被劫持。以色列随后在加沙发起大规模军事行动，战争造成重大人员伤亡，并引发成立国家调查委员会的问责呼声。
Hamas-led attacks killed approximately 1,200 people and abducted more than 250 in Israel, prompting a devastating Gaza military campaign and domestic calls for an official inquiry.
以色列最高法院裁定取消极端正统派男性的全面兵役豁免。执政联盟内部的宗教政党沙斯党和圣经犹太教联盟随即要求立法保护豁免权，加剧了内部矛盾与社会撕裂。
Israel's Supreme Court ruled against blanket military draft exemptions for Haredi men, prompting religious coalition partners to demand legislative protections and intensifying domestic tensions.
美国与以色列于2026年2月展开针对伊朗的联合军事行动，使以色列陷入多线地区冲突，并深刻影响了战后首次议会选举的安全与外交议题讨论。
The United States and Israel initiated joint military operations against Iran in February 2026, expanding the regional conflict ahead of Israel's first post-October 7 national election.
内塔尼亚胡执政联盟通过法案，剥夺总检察长巴哈拉夫-米亚拉的多项权力，允许政府拒绝其法律建议并自选诉讼代表，司法改革争议再次成为选战核心矛盾。
Netanyahu's governing coalition enacted legislation stripping Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara of key powers, reigniting fierce campaign clashes over the judicial overhaul.
战后首次议会选举前夕的最终民调显示，埃森科特反对派联盟预计获52席，内塔尼亚胡阵营获50席，双方均无法达到组阁所需的61席门槛，政局面临僵局。
On the eve of the election, final polls projected the opposition bloc with 52 seats and Netanyahu's camp with 50 seats, leaving both short of the 61-seat threshold to govern.
02内政矛盾与选战关键议题Domestic Divides: Accountability, Judicial Overhaul, and Conscription
选民的关注焦点主要集中于以色列内部治理与安全失职的问责。9月有媒体指称内塔尼亚胡在2023年10月7日袭击发生前约一周已接获哈马斯筹划大规模攻势的预警，内塔尼亚胡驳斥该报道为谎言并提起诽谤诉讼。反对派领袖埃曾科特则承诺，若当选总理将立即启动官方国家调查委员会，彻查导致袭击发生的事前防务与决策疏漏，而内塔尼亚胡一直拒绝设立此类调查。
Voter scrutiny throughout the campaign has focused heavily on domestic governance and accountability for pre-war security lapses. In September, Israeli newspaper Haaretz published book extracts alleging Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu received warnings that Hamas was planning a major offensive roughly a week before the October 7, 2023 attacks, an account Netanyahu rejected as an absolute lie while pursuing a defamation suit against the publication. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has made an official state commission of inquiry into the institutional and decision-making breakdowns surrounding the raid his primary governing pledge, a formal process that Netanyahu has consistently resisted initiating.
司法权争端与极端正统派兵役问题构成了选战的核心争议。内塔尼亚胡执政联盟先前通过法案改变法官遴选机制，并在7月立法削弱总检察长加利·巴哈拉夫-米亚拉的职权，允许政府驳回其法律建议并在法庭上自聘律师；反对派阵营已承诺在上台后推翻这些措施。同时，最高法院于2024年6月25日裁决取消极端正统派学生的兵役豁免，沙斯党和圣经犹太教联盟等宗教盟友则要求内塔尼亚胡立法推翻该裁决，这一诉求随着战事延长和预备役人员负担加重而在世俗选民中引发强烈反弹。
The campaign has simultaneously reopened fierce friction over the judiciary and the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men. Netanyahu's coalition enacted statutory measures reshaping how judges are appointed and passed a law in July stripping Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara of several powers, allowing the government to reject her legal advice and select its own courtroom representation. Opponents have pledged to repeal both measures. Meanwhile, following a June 25, 2024 Supreme Court ruling that struck down blanket draft exemptions for Haredi men, conservative religious partners Shas and United Torah Judaism have demanded legislative shields against conscription, intensifying friction as military burdens fall disproportionately on secular reservists.
03反对派挑战者与安全战略趋同The Opposition Challenge and Security Policy Consensus
作为反对派的核心领军人物，加迪·埃曾科特曾由内塔尼亚胡任命为以军参谋长，并在2023年10月7日袭击发生后加入战时内阁。在战事早期，埃曾科特的儿子与侄子相继在加沙作战中身亡；三个月后他指责决策机制存在严重功能失调，批评内塔尼亚胡将个人与政治私利置于一切之上。尽管埃曾科特凭借严谨稳健的军人作风吸引了大量对执政现状不满的中右翼选民，并承诺遏制约旦河西岸定居点暴力及通过外交途径解决冲突，但他在核心防务政策上并未脱离强硬基调。
As the principal challenger leading the opposition alliance, Gadi Eisenkot served as military chief of staff under Benjamin Netanyahu a decade ago before joining the emergency war cabinet following the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks. Eisenkot's son and nephew were both killed fighting in Gaza during the opening months of the war, after which he departed the government citing deep dysfunction and accusing Netanyahu of prioritizing personal and political calculations over national security. Although Eisenkot has attracted center-right voters seeking a steady figure and has pledged to curb unauthorized settler violence in the West Bank, his core security doctrine remains firmly aligned with hardline defense priorities.
在涉及巴勒斯坦前途及主要战线的安排上，两大竞争阵营展现出高度的安全共识。埃曾科特在竞选集会上向选民明确表示，拆除哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党的武装能力需要漫长时间，因此以色列军方短期内绝不会从加沙和黎巴嫩撤离部队。埃曾科特同时声明自己从未主张通过建立巴勒斯坦国的“两国方案”来化解冲突，认为当前应保留未来解决方案的可能性。两派领袖在选战中均未对加沙战事提出根本质疑，显示出以色列主流政坛在战后安全格局设计上的高度趋同。
On territorial control and Palestinian statehood, the opposition platform mirrors the strategic posture of the incumbent administration. Speaking at campaign events, Eisenkot declared that dismantling the military capabilities of Hamas and Hezbollah will take significant time, ruling out any prompt withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza or southern Lebanon. Furthermore, Eisenkot explicitly emphasized that he has never endorsed a two-state solution creating an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel, arguing instead that Israel should merely preserve options for future arrangements. With neither frontrunner questioning the prosecution of the war in Gaza, the campaign reflects a durable consensus among mainstream Jewish factions over regional military operations.
04组阁数学困局与选后走向Coalition Math, the Arab Party Dilemma, and Post-Vote Scenarios
以色列阿拉伯公民占全国人口20%以上，但代表这一群体的阿拉伯政党极少被纳入执政联盟。民意测验显示，若反对派阵营愿意与拉阿姆党及由哈达什党、巴拉德党和塔阿勒党组成的联合名单分享权力，本可轻易跨过61席门槛；然而反对派四党联盟已明确表示拒绝与阿拉伯政党结盟，内塔尼亚胡阵营同样坚决排斥与阿拉伯派别合作。
Arab citizens comprise more than 20 percent of Israel's population, yet parties representing this electorate have historically remained excluded from governing coalitions. Poll projections indicate that the opposition alliance could readily achieve a governing majority if it were willing to partner with Arab-majority factions, including Ra'am and the Joint List slate of Hadash, Balad, and Ta'al. However, Eisenkot's Jewish-led opposition bloc has explicitly ruled out sharing power with Arab parties, while Netanyahu has simultaneously campaigned on portraying Arab factions as illegitimate political partners.
将阿拉伯政党排除在执政联盟之外使两派阵营均深陷数学困局，更赋予独立小党派潜在的决定性杠杆。如果选后复杂的跨党派协商破裂，以色列可能出现缺乏稳定多数、不得不依赖议会外部默许支持的弱势少数派政府。另一种可能的前景是组阁彻底流产，导致该国在来年春季再度重选；在缺乏新民意授权的看守期内，内塔尼亚胡将继续留任总理并握有完整的开战与防务决策权力。
The blanket refusal by mainstream Jewish factions across both major camps to partner with Arab-led lists has locked the Knesset arithmetic into an impasse, amplifying the bargaining power of unaffiliated smaller parties. If exhaustive post-vote coalition bargaining collapses, Israel faces the scenario of a fragile minority administration dependent on votes from outside the cabinet. Alternatively, outright political deadlock could trigger repeat elections next spring, an outcome that would leave Netanyahu in office without a fresh popular mandate while retaining full legal authority over regional military engagements and state defense decisions.
05加沙民众视角与外部现实Perspectives from Gaza and Regional Ground Realities
在经历多年的战事与流离失所后，加沙地带的巴勒斯坦人正带着忧虑审视这场以色列大选。尽管当地自2025年10月起名义上处于停火状态，但几乎每日持续的空袭、严苛的物资围困以及基本生活物资的匮乏依然笼罩着当地社区。来自贾巴利亚难民营、现居代尔拜拉赫的穆罕默德·埃利扬向媒体表示，自己关注选举是期盼局势能有所缓解，并希望埃曾科特获胜以避免内塔尼亚胡连任带来更多流离失所；但他同时直言无论谁执政，以色列的基本敌对政策都不太可能出现根本性改善。
Following years of armed conflict and repeated displacement, Palestinians in the Gaza Strip are observing Israel's national election with profound uncertainty. Although a ceasefire has been nominally in place since October 2025, residents continue to endure frequent Israeli air strikes, severe humanitarian deprivation, and an ongoing siege restricting basic food and medicine. Mohammed Eliyan, a displaced father living in Deir el-Balah after fleeing the Jabalia refugee camp, told reporters he follows the race hoping for an easing of hardship and favoring an Eisenkot victory over Netanyahu, yet acknowledged that neither outcome is likely to fundamentally shift core Israeli security measures.
来自加沙北部拜特拉希亚的伊斯兰·萨利姆同样认为，即使新政府换上不同面孔，以色列在加沙的既定军事战略也将基本保持不变。萨利姆指出，以军至今仍实质控制着加沙地带“黄线”内约65%的土地，而且由于全区超过80%的建筑受损且约三分之二完全被毁，战后重建前景极为渺茫。对于当地承受多次流离失所的民众而言，以色列国内激烈的政治角逐并不会动摇加沙严酷的封锁现状，其未来生活依然深陷于缺乏喘息空间的人道困境之中。
Islam Salem, displaced from Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza, expressed similar expectations, noting that while election outcomes directly affect daily livelihoods, Israel's overarching military posture in the enclave will remain unchanged regardless of which coalition takes power. Salem pointed to Israel's ongoing territorial control over approximately 65 percent of Gaza within the designated Yellow Line, noting that rebuilding remains unlikely given that more than 80 percent of local structures have been damaged, with about two-thirds completely destroyed. For residents displaced more than a dozen times, the internal political contest in Israel offers little prospect of lifting the military enclosure or improving ground conditions.
