以色列大选初步计票陷入僵局 内塔尼亚胡指控舞弊促情报部门调查Israel Election Reaches Deadlock as Netanyahu Alleges Fraud and Demands Probe

在以色列中央选举委员会完成90.4%至93%的选票统计后，120席议会的初步席位版图趋于明确。现任总理本雅明·内塔尼亚胡所率领的利库德集团及其极右翼、极端正统派盟友预计共拿下53个席位，而前以军参谋长加迪·艾森科特所领导的“正直党”连同另外三家犹太反对派政党则预计斩获48席。尽管内塔尼亚胡阵营在席位数上暂居领先，但两大阵营距离单独组阁所需的61席法定多数门槛均存在明显差距。

According to the Central Elections Committee with between 90.4% and 93% of the regular ballots counted, the distribution of seats in the 120-seat Knesset has crystallized without producing a viable ruling coalition. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party alongside its allied far-right and ultra-Orthodox Jewish factions is projected to secure 53 seats. Opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three other Jewish opposition factions are slated to receive 48 seats. While Netanyahu’s camp currently maintains a five-seat lead over Eisenkot’s faction, both major groupings fall well short of the 61-seat threshold required for a governing majority.

除了两大主要政治板块外，反对派整体席位预计达到67席，但其中包括了阿拉伯政党所占有的19席。由于内塔尼亚胡阵营此前明确排除与阿拉伯政党合作的可能性，而艾森科特阵营内除一家政党外的其他犹太党派同样承诺不会与阿拉伯党派联合组阁，双方眼下均面临无法依托既有联盟拼凑多数席位的结构性困局。两大阵营领袖均公开表态将尝试组建新一届执政联盟，但在现有席位分配下，常规组阁路径已陷入明显停滞。

Although the wider opposition spectrum formally holds 67 seats against Netanyahu's 53, that broader total incorporates 19 seats won by Arab-majority parties. Netanyahu has ruled out any partnership with Arab factions, while Eisenkot and all but one Jewish party in his anti-Netanyahu bloc have similarly pledged not to form a government with them. Despite both Netanyahu and Eisenkot announcing intentions to assemble an administration, the rigid numerical split leaves neither bloc with an immediate internal path to cross the majority mark.

在本次议会选举中，阿拉伯政党所斩获的19个席位打破了此前15席的历史纪录，使得占以色列约五分之一人口的阿拉伯选民成为左右议局走向的核心因素。根据初步计票数据，两大阿拉伯主要派系呈现稳健突破态势，其中由左翼犹太与阿拉伯联合政党哈达什党、阿拉伯民族主义政党塔阿勒党及巴拉德党组成的“共同名单”预计夺得12个席位。由曼苏尔·阿巴斯领导、隶属于以色列伊斯兰运动南支的联合阿拉伯榜单（拉阿姆党）则预计保住7个议席。

The projection of 19 Knesset seats for Arab-majority parties marks an unprecedented electoral milestone, surpassing their previous record of 15 seats and transforming a constituency that makes up roughly 21% of Israel's population into a critical political force. According to preliminary count data, the Joint List—an alliance uniting the Arab-Jewish left-wing Hadash party alongside Arab nationalist factions Ta'al and Balad—is slated to capture 12 seats. Meanwhile, the United Arab List, known as Ra'am, which is led by Mansour Abbas and affiliated with the Southern Branch of the Islamic Movement, is projected to secure seven seats.

两大政党的席位跃升直接得益于阿拉伯选民群体的极高投票动员。虽然以色列历史上仅有一家独立阿拉伯政党在2021年短暂加入过执政联盟，且主流犹太政党长期在组阁过程中对其予以排斥，但眼下两大犹太阵营均未跨过61席门槛，使得拥有19个席位的阿拉伯板块成为反对派实现理论多数的关键前提。这一突破性结果将原本边缘化的少数族群政党直接推上了议会博弈的风口浪尖。

This seat expansion was propelled by near-record turnout among Arab citizens, challenging decades of political marginalization. Historically, only one independent Arab party has ever participated in an Israeli governing coalition—a short-lived arrangement formed in 2021. With both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot failing to secure independent 61-seat majorities, the 19 seats held by the Arab factions now represent the opposition camp's sole numerical path to a theoretical majority, elevating them to a pivotal position in parliamentary calculations.

初步计票结果显现僵局后，现任总理内塔尼亚胡在社交平台X上公开指控阿拉伯政党涉嫌严重刑事犯罪，声称选举结果被其所窃取。内塔尼亚胡表示，利库德集团正向警方、国家安全总局（辛贝特）以及中央选举委员会移交数百份证词与材料，指控多处阿拉伯投票站存在贿赂、伪造选票、对选务人员施加威胁暴力、使用禁用软件动员选民以及多重身份投票等违法行为。他特别提到出现装有现金和拉阿姆党选票信封的报告，要求执法部门与辛贝特展开全面刑事调查并起诉涉案人员。

Following the emerging stalemate in preliminary counts, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu posted on social media platform X alleging that Arab parties had committed serious criminal offenses, claiming the election was stolen. Netanyahu stated that the Likud party was submitting hundreds of testimonies and pieces of evidence to the police, the Shin Bet security agency, and the Central Elections Committee. He cited alleged offenses at Arab polling stations including bribery, forgery, threats and violence against staff, multiple votes cast behind curtains, discrepancies between ballot envelopes and voter tallies, and the deployment of prohibited voter-mobilization software. Netanyahu demanded full criminal investigations and prosecutions.

极右翼阵营随后加大施压力度，国家安全部长伊塔马尔·本-格维尔在社交平台发文，要求辛贝特对涉嫌卷入卡塔尔资金的阿拉伯政党领导人执行逮捕，指控相关政党接受来自卡塔尔的非法外部资金支持。面对相关质疑，以色列中央选举委员会正式提请辛贝特负责人介入，就大选中涉嫌的外国干预行为展开调查，重点核实涉及卡塔尔的资金链条与潜在贿赂行为。官方监管机构与情报部门的正式介入，使这场计票争议由单纯的选票争议上升为国家安全调查程序。

Amplifying the claims, far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir called on the Shin Bet to immediately arrest leaders of Arab parties over unproven accusations regarding illicit Qatari funding. Several right-wing ministers alleged that Arab factions received external financial support from Qatar. In response to the growing allegations, Israel's Central Elections Committee formally requested that the Shin Bet chief investigate potential foreign interference in the Knesset election, centering on suspected Qatari funding and bribery schemes, shifting the post-election dispute into a formal national security inquiry.

针对内塔尼亚胡阵营的舞弊指控，反对党“民主人士”主席亚伊尔·戈兰在社交平台X上作出回应，指责内塔尼亚胡正在推行一场抹黑选民意愿的运动。戈兰表示，内塔尼亚胡遭遇了民主进程的否决，公众事实上已经通过选票解除其职务，但他拒绝接受这一裁决。戈兰认为，右翼针对选举结果发起的攻击，本质上是在否定公众意志，特别是剥夺阿拉伯公民群体的政治合法性。尽管如此，戈兰同时声明，任何关于选举公正性受损的实质性怀疑依然需要依法接受全面调查。

Responding to allegations from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies, Democrats chairman Yair Golan criticized the rhetoric on social media platform X, describing it as an effort to undermine the election outcome by delegitimizing voters. Golan stated that Netanyahu had suffered a democratic defeat and that the public had rejected him at the ballot box, yet he refused to accept that decision. Golan characterized the subsequent accusations as an attempt to invalidate the public will, specifically targeting Arab citizens who participated in the vote. At the same time, Golan acknowledged that any genuine suspicion regarding harm to the integrity of the election must be thoroughly investigated by relevant authorities.

面对选后升级的舆论分裂，以色列总统艾萨克·赫尔佐格在耶路撒冷官邸公开发声，力求平衡法律问责与社会稳定。赫尔佐格肯定了本届大选创下二十多年新高的77.7%投票率，称其展现了以色列公众对民主制度的追求。针对外部资金与舞弊指控，赫尔佐格表态称所有指控和证据必须得到彻底追查，违规责任人应被依法追究责任。但他也明确警告，各方绝不能在当前时刻抹黑因行使合法投票权而积极参与民主进程的整个阿拉伯公民群体。

Amid escalating political friction, Israeli President Isaac Herzog sought to balance rigorous legal scrutiny with democratic cohesion during remarks delivered at his Jerusalem residence. Herzog praised the 77.7% election turnout, which reached its highest level in more than twenty years, calling it a demonstration of democratic engagement. Addressing the fraud and foreign funding claims, Herzog stated that the evidence and accusations must be fully investigated to hold wrongdoers accountable under the law. However, he cautioned that authorities and political actors must avoid tarnishing an entire community that turned out to exercise its lawful right to vote.

以色列中央选举委员会于周四凌晨启动了对43万至48万张“双信封”缺席选票的清点工作，这批主要来自以军士兵、海外外交官和在押囚犯的选票约占总选票的近10%。尽管常规选票全部清点暂定于周四下午结束，但正式认证的选举结果要到11月4日才会公布。根据比例代表制，这批选票在理论上仍有可能微调各党最终议席，不过分析普遍认为难以彻底打破现有的力量僵持格局。

Israel's Central Elections Committee commenced tallying between 430,000 and 480,000 "double-envelope" absentee ballots early Thursday morning, encompassing roughly 10% of total votes cast by soldiers, diplomats posted abroad, hospitalized patients, and prisoners. Although initial counting of regular ballots is slated for completion on Thursday afternoon, official certified election results are not scheduled to be released until November 4. Under Israel's proportional representation system, these absentee ballots could theoretically alter final seat allocations at the margins, though observers note they are unlikely to decisively dismantle the overarching parliamentary deadlock.

一旦正式结果确认，总统赫尔佐格将与各党派展开为期数周的磋商，授权组阁可能性最高的领导人组建新一届内阁。眼下摆在以色列政坛面前的潜在出路极为狭窄：艾森科特若与利库德集团组建民族团结政府，必须打破不再与内塔尼亚胡共事的竞选承诺；反对派若想单独拼凑多数，则需拉拢阿拉伯党派，这将推翻犹太反对派政党长期的合作底线；而内塔尼亚胡坚持要求建立强硬右翼政府的表态也压缩了妥协空间。若所有谈判尝试均告破裂，以色列面临在明年初被迫重新举行大选的可能。

Following final certification, President Isaac Herzog will conduct consultations with all parliamentary factions before tasking the lawmaker deemed most viable with forming a governing coalition. Available paths toward a working government remain fraught with severe political hurdles: Eisenkot joining Likud in a national unity government would require reversing his core pledge never to serve under Netanyahu, while the opposition camp's sole numerical path to 61 seats involves partnering with Arab parties—an option most Jewish factions have repeatedly ruled out. If protracted bargaining breaks down, Israel could face repeat general elections early next year.