伊朗警告若遭美以新袭击战线将扩大至印度洋Iran Warns War Could Expand to Indian Ocean if US or Israel Strikes Again
伊朗最高领袖高级军事顾问叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维于2026年9月24日发出警告称，如果美国或以色列再次发动军事袭击，当前的中东战线可能从波斯湾、霍尔木兹海峡和红海扩大至印度洋甚至更远区域。萨法维强调也门胡塞武装完全控制着曼德海峡与红海通道，任何新战事的开启都将把袭击范围扩大至全球能源供应体系。这一表态紧随联合国大会期间美伊高层的激烈交锋——美国总统特朗普此前在联大演讲中威胁若未达成协议将迅速“消灭”伊朗，而伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬则指责美以发动非法袭击并坚称绝不屈服。受局势升级预期与持续战事影响，国际基准布伦特原油价格周四上涨3%至每桶106.24美元，美原油交易价接近每桶94美元。与此同时，美军在霍尔木兹海峡对进出伊朗港口的商船实施封锁并已累计重新引导115艘船只，迫使伊朗依赖土耳其边境陆路运输，导致居尔布拉克口岸货车等待时间超过五天；而美国军方亦证实，执行长达约10个月超长部署且刚离开中东的林肯号航母打击群在任务期间发生了8起水手自杀未遂事件。
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, warned on September 24, 2026, that any renewed military strikes by the United States or Israel could expand the conflict from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Red Sea into the Indian Ocean or beyond. Safavi emphasized Houthi control over the vital Bab el-Mandeb Strait, cautioning that a resumption of hostilities would draw expanded attacks on global energy supplies and maritime shipping. The warning followed heated exchanges at the United Nations General Assembly, where US President Donald Trump threatened to annihilate Iran if a peace deal is not reached, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the US and Israel of illegal attacks and insisted Tehran would not yield. Global energy markets reacted immediately to the rising tensions, with international benchmark Brent crude rising 3% to $106.24 per barrel and US crude trading near $94 per barrel. Meanwhile, the US naval blockade at the Strait of Hormuz has redirected 115 commercial vessels, causing multi-day truck pileups at the Turkish border crossing of Gurbulak, while US Navy records confirmed eight suicide attempts among sailors during the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group's roughly 10-month deployment.
01伊朗发出战线扩大警告与红海航运威胁Iran's Threat to Expand Maritime Conflict Fronts
伊朗最高领袖阿亚图拉·穆杰塔巴·哈梅内伊的高级军事顾问、伊斯兰革命卫队前司令叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维在伊朗法尔斯通讯社发布的视频中表示，随着冲突已从波斯湾和霍尔木兹海峡蔓延至红海，若美国再次开启新战争，战线可能进一步扩展至印度洋甚至更远。萨法维指出，波斯湾与红海、霍尔木兹海峡与曼德海峡之间的联动将彻底改变战场格局，美方应认真评估是否准备好进入该战线交战。
Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei and former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, warned in a video released by Iran's Fars news agency that any renewed military conflict initiated by the United States could push the battlefield far beyond current boundaries. Safavi noted that because the war has already spread from the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz into the Red Sea, Tehran and its allies could widen military operations to encompass the Indian Ocean and other strategic waters.
萨法维强调伊朗与也门胡塞武装之间存在共同利益与威胁的紧密关联，并称胡塞武装已完全控制曼德海峡及红海通道。曼德海峡作为中东第二大航运咽喉，在波斯湾航运受阻后成为沙特能源出口的关键通道。胡塞武装此前已在红海对沙特船只与基础设施发起袭击，并威胁封锁沙特红海港口，声称相关行动系对沙特干涉也门内战的回击。若局势再度升级，针对全球能源供应设施与海上航运的打击范围或将进一步扩大。
Safavi emphasized that the connection linking the Persian Gulf, the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will reshape the maritime operational theater, stressing a shared destiny between Iran and Yemen's Houthis. Pointing out that the Houthis hold full control over the Bab el-Mandeb Strait—a vital alternative route for Saudi energy exports while Persian Gulf transit remains choked—he warned that hostilities could bring expanded strikes against regional energy infrastructure and shipping corridors, following previous Houthi attacks against Saudi vessels and Red Sea port infrastructure.
如果美国人发动一场新战争，一个以红海和曼德海峡为中心的新战线可能会展现在他们眼前。他们准备好进入这一战线作战了吗？这是一个他们应该更加关注的问题。
If the Americans start a new war, a new front centred on the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait may open before their eyes. Are they prepared to enter a battle on this front? This is a question they should pay more attention to.
叶海亚·拉希姆·萨法维，伊朗最高领袖高级军事顾问Major General Yahya Safavi, senior military adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader
美伊战事与海上冲突蔓延时间线Timeline of US-Iran War and Maritime Escalation
梳理美伊战争中海上交火、能源危机及战线逐步从波斯湾蔓延至红海并逼近印度洋的关键节点。
Traces key military strikes, energy shocks, and maritime escalations pushing the US-Iran conflict toward the Indian Ocean.
在美军舰艇避开伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的弹道导弹后，美军中央司令部打击了三艘伊朗原油船，导致哈尔克岛与贾斯克附近的油轮完全瘫痪。
After warships evaded IRGC ballistic missiles, US Central Command struck three Iranian tankers, permanently disabling vessels near Kharg Island and Jask.
也门胡塞武装对艾卜哈、吉赞、奈季兰等四座沙特南部城市发动无人机和弹道导弹袭击，造成至少73名平民受伤并引发能源设施火灾。
Yemen's Houthis launched drone and missile barrages across four southern Saudi cities, wounding at least 73 civilians and igniting fires at energy facilities.
随着霍尔木兹海峡与红海军事冲突加剧并危及能源运输要道，布伦特原油期货价格升破每桶102美元，一周内涨幅超过20%。
Brent crude climbed past $102 a barrel, rising over 20% in less than a week as hostilities around the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea threatened transit routes.
在沙特提出修改意见后，原定于马斯喀特举行的霍尔木兹海峡航运管理会议延期；同日胡塞武装占领红海重镇穆哈及哈尼什群岛。
Muscat talks on Strait of Hormuz shipping were postponed at Saudi Arabia's request, while Houthi forces seized Mokha and the Hanish islands in the Red Sea.
伊朗最高领袖高级顾问萨法维警告，若美以发动新袭击，战线将从霍尔木兹海峡和红海扩大至印度洋；同时国际油价再度冲高。
Senior Iranian adviser Safavi warned that renewed US or Israeli strikes could push the war into the Indian Ocean, as global crude prices surged anew.
02全球能源市场剧烈波动与油价再度攀升Global Oil Markets React with Price Spikes
在持续七个月的美伊战争不确定性笼罩下，国际原油价格周四重新步入上行通道。国际基准布伦特原油价格盘中上涨3%，最高触及每桶106.24美元，随后在美股开盘前维持在每桶105美元上方；基准美原油价格同样上涨约2%，交易价格接近每桶94美元。当前布伦特油价远高于美以联合对伊朗开战前约72美元的水平。
International crude prices resumed their upward climb on Thursday as persistent uncertainty surrounding the seven-month United States war with Iran weighed heavily on energy trading. International benchmark Brent crude jumped 3% to reach $106.24 per barrel before easing slightly to hold above $105 ahead of US market openings, while benchmark US crude rose around 2% to trade just below $94 per barrel. Current Brent crude prices remain significantly elevated compared to the pre-war baseline of roughly $72 per barrel recorded before the joint US-Israeli military campaign began.
在此轮反弹之前，由于多国领导人齐聚纽约参加联合国大会，外界曾预期各方可能达成协议以恢复波斯湾油气经霍尔木兹海峡的正常通航，推动国际油价连续下跌约两周直至周三。然而，联大会议期间并未显现缓解中东油轮通行阻滞的实质进展。尽管美伊双方本周已通过调解人恢复接触，但相关谈判尚未取得具体成果，市场供应忧虑因此再度升温。
The fresh price increase reversed a two-week decline that had lasted through Wednesday, driven by initial market hopes that diplomatic gatherings at the United Nations General Assembly in New York might yield an arrangement to restore Persian Gulf oil and gas flows through the choked Strait of Hormuz. Those hopes dissipated as world leaders offered little concrete indication of progress toward resolving the tanker traffic crisis. While mediated discussions between Washington and Tehran resumed this week, they have produced no tangible breakthroughs to ease supply disruptions.
03联大期间美伊外交交锋与国际言论争议UN Diplomatic Clashes and International Rhetoric
在纽约举行的联合国大会一般性辩论期间，美伊两国领导人发表了针锋相对的强硬言论。美国总统特朗普在联大演讲中表示，他面临着与伊朗达成协议还是迅速“消灭”伊斯兰共和国的重大抉择。针对特朗普的表态，伊朗总统佩泽希齐扬在联大发表战时演说，谴责美以两国对其平民与基础设施发动非法袭击并加剧全球动荡，指控美国在伊朗境内实施恐怖主义，并表态称伊朗绝不会屈膝屈服。
Diplomatic tensions escalated at the United Nations General Assembly in New York as leaders from the United States and Iran delivered sharply conflicting wartime addresses. US President Donald Trump told the assembly that he faced a major decision on whether to negotiate a deal with Iran or quickly annihilate the Islamic Republic. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian responded with a defiant address blaming the US and Israel for stoking global instability and launching illegal attacks against Iranian civilians and infrastructure, accusing Washington of terrorism and declaring that Tehran would not bend at the knee.
美伊交锋随后引发了国际层面的外交争论。加拿大总理马克·卡尼周三称伊朗是当前世界的最大威胁之一，对以色列及其盟友构成生存威胁；在被问及特朗普的联大言论时，卡尼表示当前处于战争状态，特朗普使用的是“战争语言”。对此，伊朗外交部发言人伊斯梅尔·巴加埃在社交媒体上批评卡尼未能谴责美方的侵略与好战行径，指责其通过迎合华盛顿来寻求庇护，而不是正视事实。
The rhetorical clash quickly sparked broader international controversy. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney characterized Iran on Wednesday as one of the greatest threats in the world and an existential danger to Israel and its allies, describing Trump's annihilation remarks as the language of war. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baqaei criticized Carney on social media for failing to condemn American aggression and warmongering, asserting that the Canadian leader had chosen to appease Washington rather than confront the realities of US military actions.
04海上封锁经济压力与美军航母部署后遗症Naval Blockade Pressures and US Aircraft Carrier Deployment Strains
美国中央司令部数据显示，美军在霍尔木兹海峡实施的军事封锁已累计重新引导115艘进出伊朗港口的商船，相较周一更新的数据增加了5艘。海上封锁切断了伊朗大部分进口与关键油气出口，迫使德黑兰转向陆路通道维持经济运转。在伊朗与土耳其边境最大的居尔布拉克口岸，数百辆货车在长达7公里的车流中滞留，货运司机的通关等待时间由平时的最多3天拉长至5天以上。
The United States military blockade at the Strait of Hormuz has now redirected 115 commercial vessels entering or exiting Iranian ports, an increase of five ships since Monday, according to data from US Central Command. As naval interdictions cut off vital oil and gas exports alongside the vast majority of seaborne imports, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has pushed to accelerate overland trade. The policy shift has triggered heavy traffic congestion at the Gurbulak crossing on the Iran-Turkey border, where hundreds of cargo trucks wait in queues stretching seven kilometers, with border processing delays extending beyond five days.
在美军内部，长期的高压军事部署也带来了心理健康危机。美国代理海军部长洪高在一封致国会的信函中证实，执行约10个月超长部署的林肯号航空母舰打击群共发生8起水手自杀未遂事件，其中两起发生在与伊朗的直接交火期间。该航母打击群拥有约5000名舰员，自去年11月部署至中东后，于近期离开战区并返回圣迭戈母港。纽约州民主党参议员陆天娜批评五角大楼未能向服役人员提供足够的医疗与心理健康支持。
The prolonged wartime posture has also heightened internal operational strain within the US military. In a letter to Congress, Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed that eight suicide attempts occurred among sailors assigned to the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group during its roughly 10-month deployment, including two attempts during active combat with Iran. The strike group, which deployed approximately 5,000 crew members to the Middle East in November, has departed the region to return to San Diego. Democratic Senator Kirsten Gillibrand criticized the administration for failing to address deteriorating service conditions and mental health needs.
