全球主权债遭剧烈抛售 美债收益率创2002年以来新高Global Sovereign Bond Rout Drives US 10-Year Treasury Yield to 2002 High

在伦敦证交所集团（LSEG）的数据追踪下，美国10年期基准国债收益率周四上升4个基点至5.3338%，并在部分交易中达到5.34%，刷新自2002年4月互联网泡沫破裂以来的最高纪录。与此同时，30年期国债收益率上涨3个基点至5.6702%，触及2002年7月以来的峰值；对政策预期高度敏感的2年期国债收益率亦上涨2个基点至4.91%。债券价格与收益率呈反向变动，一个基点等于0.01%。

U.S. government debt yields reached their highest marks in over two decades on Thursday as selling pressure intensified across fixed-income markets. According to LSEG data, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 basis points to 5.3338%, touching 5.34% and marking its highest level since the dot-com collapse in April 2002. Concurrently, the 30-year Treasury yield advanced 3 basis points to 5.6702%, its highest reading since July 2002, while the policy-sensitive 2-year yield climbed 2 basis points to 4.91%. Bond yields move inversely to prices, with one basis point equating to 0.01%.

作为全球金融体系的定价基准，10年期美债收益率的急剧走高直接传导至实体经济的终端借贷端。该收益率的跃升直接抬高了居民抵押贷款利率、汽车贷款利率以及信用卡债务成本。投资者在国债拍卖中持续要求更高的风险溢价，以对冲汽油和柴油价格上涨带来的资产价值侵蚀，长端与短端借贷成本的同步上行正全面加大企业与家庭的偿债压力。

Because the 10-year Treasury note serves as a critical benchmark across the global economy, the surge in yields feeds directly into everyday borrowing costs for consumers and businesses. The rise directly pressures interest rates on home mortgage loans, automobile financing, and revolving credit card balances. Meanwhile, investors continue demanding higher yields at government bond auctions to compensate for the purchasing-power erosion caused by elevated gasoline and diesel fuel prices, reinforcing financial constraints across household and corporate balance sheets.

除美国国债之外，欧洲与亚洲主要经济体的主权债券在周四同样遭遇沉重抛售，多国基准借贷成本攀升至多年乃至数十年高位。作为欧元区基准的德国10年期国债收益率上涨4个基点至3.6179%，创下2008年以来的最高水平。欧洲其他国家债券收益率同步飙升，法国10年期国债收益率上涨11个基点至4.9501%，意大利10年期国债收益率上涨10个基点至4.7171%，英国10年期国债收益率则上涨5个基点至5.483%，英国30年期国债收益率更是在周四触及6%，录得1998年以来的首次突破。

Sovereign bond markets across Europe and Asia experienced severe selling on Thursday, driving benchmark borrowing costs to levels not seen in years or decades. The yield on the German 10-year bund, the euro area's core benchmark, advanced 4 basis points to 3.6179%, marking its highest level since 2008. Across the European continent, French 10-year yields surged 11 basis points to 4.9501%, while Italy's 10-year yield climbed 10 basis points to 4.7171%. In the United Kingdom, the 10-year gilt yield rose 5 basis points to 5.483%, and the 30-year gilt yield reached 6% for the first time since 1998.

在亚洲市场，日本10年期国债收益率报3.126%，触及三十年来的最高点。日本央行的加息行动叠加日元疲软表现，对这一具有全球影响力的主权债务市场构成持续压力。国际金融协会在上周的评估中指出，主要经济体普遍面临持续扩大的财政赤字和不断上升的利息支出，这类困境长期以来多见于面临债务困境的新兴市场主权国家。多国政府借贷成本的同步走高，反映出投资者对全球性财政失衡以及粘性通胀环境下利率上行的普遍担忧。

In Asia, Japan's benchmark 10-year government bond yield stood at 3.126%, hitting its highest mark in three decades. Japan's globally influential sovereign debt faced intensified pressure resulting from a depreciated yen and interest rate increases enacted by the Bank of Japan. The Institute of International Finance noted in an assessment last week that major economies are grappling with persistently large fiscal deficits and escalating interest expenses, challenges traditionally associated with debt-distressed emerging market sovereigns. The simultaneous climb in government borrowing costs across international markets reflects widespread investor concern over unresolved fiscal shortfalls and persistent inflation pressures.

美债收益率持续冲高的背后，是投资者对美国经济过热以及美联储将继续提高目标利率的强烈预期。周三公布的国内生产总值（GDP）报告强于预期，加之通胀数据仍远高于美联储官方目标，强化了紧缩政策维持更久的逻辑。同时，美国劳动力市场维持低失业水平，定于周五公布的9月就业报告预计显示失业率稳定在4.1%的“充分就业”水平。在强劲股市拉动消费支出、且年度人工智能基础设施投资达到万亿美元级别并预计在未来十年持续增长的背景下，经济需求表现强劲。

Underpinning the surge in Treasury yields are intensifying investor expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue raising its target interest rates in response to signs of an overheating U.S. economy. Stronger-than-expected gross domestic product data released on Wednesday, coupled with inflation reports showing consumer prices rising well above the central bank's target, reinforced anticipation of tighter monetary policy. Meanwhile, unemployment remains historically low, with Friday's September jobs report projected to show the jobless rate holding at 4.1%, a benchmark economists define as full employment. Robust consumer spending driven by equity market strength, alongside annual artificial intelligence infrastructure investments now measured in trillions of dollars and projected to expand over the next decade, continues to sustain rapid economic activity.

除宏观增长动能外，美国两党推动的大规模政府支出使国家财政陷入不可持续的路径，长期债务担忧直接重挫债券市场信心。政治层面缺乏削减财政赤字的切实行动，导致投资者在主权债券拍卖中要求更高的风险溢价，以应对粘性通胀带来的资产侵蚀。市场预期美联储势必对过热的经济活动与财政扩张作出反应，促使债券持有人加速抛售长短期国债并推升整体收益率水平。

Beyond economic momentum, mounting debt concerns have rattled bond markets as massive government spending from both political parties places the country on an unsustainable fiscal trajectory. With investors uneasy over a lack of political action to rein in structural fiscal deficits, bondholders are pushing yields higher to safeguard against sticky inflation and long-term purchasing power erosion. Expectations that monetary authorities must react to elevated government spending and persistent demand have accelerated the sell-off across sovereign maturities.

债券收益率走势正日益与原油价格保持同步。美国和以色列与伊朗之间的冲突导致中东原油出口受阻，引发国际能源价格大幅震荡，周四国际基准布伦特原油价格重新升至每桶100美元上方。高企的原油及燃料价格直接加剧了长端国债市场的波动率，投资者持续评估能源成本上升对整体通胀黏性的传导作用。

Bond markets are increasingly moving in lockstep with global oil prices, which have experienced severe turbulence as the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran obstructs crude exports from the Middle East. International benchmark Brent crude climbed back above $100 per barrel on Thursday, reinforcing energy-driven inflation risks and injecting heightened volatility into longer-dated sovereign debt securities.

市场分析人士指出，尽管部分买家可能会利用当前的高收益率入场建仓，从而在一定程度上推动收益率回落，但油价波动与通胀走势仍是主导长端收益率变化的关键因素。Prinsights Global创始人诺米·普林斯在接受采访时表示，作为美国国债主要长期持有者的主权财富基金和央行不大可能大规模入场抄底；只有当中东局势出现缓和解决方案且国际油价显著回落时，美国国债收益率才可能迎来下行转机。

Market analysts note that while opportunistic bond buyers could eventually step in to capitalize on elevated yields and push rates lower, energy market developments remain the primary driver of volatility at the long end of the yield curve. Prinsights Global founder Nomi Prins told CNBC that sovereign wealth funds and central banks, among the primary long-term holders of Treasury debt, are unlikely to aggressively purchase bonds at present levels. Prins emphasized that meaningful downward movement in Treasury yields will largely depend on a significant drop in oil prices or a geopolitical resolution to the Middle East conflict.