全球主权债遭集中抛售 美债收益率升至数十年高位Global Debt Selloff Pushes US Treasury Yields to Multi-Decade Highs

在2026年9月24日早盘的交易中，美国长短期国债收益率均出现显著上行，直接刷新了多年来的统计高位。作为衡量抵押贷款等长期借贷成本的关键标尺，基准10年期美国国债收益率攀升至5.139%，创下自2007年7月以来的最高点。期限更长的30年期国债收益率上涨超过3个基点，触及5.438%，刷新了2004年以来的历史峰值。在债券价格与收益率反向变动的市场机制下，长端国债所承受的抛售压力表现得尤为明显。

During early morning trading on Thursday, September 24, 2026, yields on both short- and long-dated US government bonds climbed sharply, establishing fresh multi-year peaks across the curve. The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield, a vital benchmark tied directly to mortgage rates and broader borrowing costs, surged to 5.139%, marking its highest reading since July 2007. Concurrently, the 30-year Treasury bond yield rose by more than 3 basis points to reach 5.438%, setting a post-2004 high as severe downward pressure gripped long-dated sovereign debt.

与此同时，对货币政策变动高度敏感的短端国债收益率同样同步大幅走强。2年期美国国债收益率在早盘交易中上涨至4.897%，录得2023年以来的最高读数。整条美国国债收益率曲线的持续抬升，反映出投资者在强劲经济基本面与通胀担忧推动下，正在全面重新评估美联储后续的利率调整路径，对长期政府债务的定价机制也承受着直接调整。

Policy-sensitive short-term yields also demonstrated parallel strength. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note climbed to 4.897%, reaching its highest level since 2023. Because bond yields and debt prices move in opposite directions, the broad-based rise across 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year maturities underscores how bondholders are repricing future interest rate paths and adjusting their valuation of government debt under mounting expectations of persistent central bank monetary tightening.

在美债抛售潮持续发酵的同时，全球主要经济体的主权债券市场也出现联动下行行情。在亚洲市场，日本10年期国债收益率单日跳升8个基点至3.055%，创下1996年8月以来的最高水平。日本国债长端收益率的大幅上扬，显示出全球债券投资者对主权债务持有成本与潜在通胀走势的重估压力正在向亚太市场扩散。

As the selloff in US debt gained traction, sovereign bond markets across other major economies declined in tandem. In Asian trading, the yield on Japan's 10-year government bond surged by 8 basis points to reach 3.055%, marking its highest level since August 1996. The sharp rise in benchmark Japanese borrowing costs demonstrates how the pressure to reprice sovereign debt valuations and long-term inflation dynamics has expanded across Asia-Pacific markets.

欧洲主要主权债券市场同样承压走低，英国金边国债与德国国债的收益率同步上行，欧洲多国主权债券收益率刷新了多年以来的历史高位。伴随着全球政府债券价格广泛承压与收益率飙升，各主要经济体的公共财政借贷成本面临直接推升，进一步加剧了国际固定收益市场面对紧缩预期的整体波动。

Major European sovereign debt markets faced similar downward pressure, with yields on UK Gilts and German Bunds advancing in parallel. The broad decline pushed sovereign bond yields across various European countries to fresh multi-year peaks. The widespread drop in government bond prices and rising yields has increased financing pressures on public finances across key economies, intensifying broad fixed-income market fluctuations.

标普全球周三公布的采购经理人指数显示，美国9月经济扩张动能显著加快。其中，服务业PMI升至58.7，触及近五年来的最高水平；制造业PMI升至56.7，创下四年多以来的新高。强劲的商业扩张数据强化了市场对美国经济基本面韧性的评估，表明企业经营活动在借贷成本高企的环境下依然保持了较快增长。

Purchasing managers' index data released by S&P Global on Wednesday highlighted an accelerating pace of US economic activity. The services PMI rose to 58.7 in September, reaching its highest level in nearly five years, while the manufacturing index climbed to 56.7, a high not recorded in over four years. The stronger-than-expected indicators reinforced assessments of broad economic resilience, demonstrating that business operations have continued to expand swiftly despite elevated financing costs across the economy.

与此同时，国际大宗商品市场能源价格显著走高，进一步推升了通胀上行预期。国际基准布伦特原油期货价格上涨约2.8%，交易价格达到每桶105.95美元；西得克萨斯中间基原油价格上涨2.2%，升至每桶94.40美元。德意志银行分析师指出，超预期的PMI表现与原油价格反弹共同助长了美联储采取更快加息步伐的市场预期。芝加哥商品交易所的美联储观察工具显示，利率交易员押注联邦公开市场委员会在10月会议上再次加息的概率已从一周前的约49%大幅攀升至75%以上。

Energy prices in commodity markets advanced sharply at the same time, adding fresh upward pressure to inflation expectations. International Brent crude futures rose about 2.8% to trade at $105.95 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude gained 2.2% to reach $94.40. Deutsche Bank analysts noted that strong PMI results combined with rebounding oil prices supported the narrative of resilient growth, enabling monetary authorities to pursue additional tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the market-implied probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will deliver another interest rate hike at its October meeting surged above 75%, up from roughly 49% recorded one week earlier.

美联储决策层近期的公开表态进一步巩固了紧缩性货币政策预期。美联储理事迈克尔·巴尔在周三的讲话中表示，为了使通胀回归既定目标，美联储可能需要采取进一步的政策调整。周四，纽约联储主席约翰·威廉姆斯在伦敦发表演讲时同样指出，预计美联储在年底前再次加息是合理的判断。这些来自核心决策官员的鹰派言论，使市场对利率在更长时间内维持高位的预期迅速升温。

Recent public statements from Federal Reserve officials have further reinforced expectations for continued monetary policy tightening. Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr stated in a speech on Wednesday that further policy adjustments are likely to come in order to bring inflation back down to the central bank's target. Speaking in London on Thursday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams similarly observed that it would be reasonable to anticipate another interest rate increase before the end of the year. These comments from key policymakers added to the momentum behind higher sovereign borrowing costs.

在收益率攀升与加息预期加剧的背景下，债券市场投资者将目光转向即将出炉的更多经济基本面指标。周四晚些时候，美国将公布最新单周初请失业金人数以及8月份新屋销售数据。市场参与者正密切关注劳动力市场与房地产领域的具体表现，以此寻找关于美国经济抗压韧性以及美联储后续政策路径的进一步线索。

Following the yield surge and mounting rate hike bets, fixed-income investors are turning their attention toward incoming macroeconomic data releases scheduled for later Thursday. Markets are awaiting the latest weekly jobless claims report alongside August new home sales figures. Traders and institutional investors will evaluate these indicators to assess the resilience of the labor and housing sectors and to gain clearer insight into the future direction of the central bank's monetary stance.