德国柏林与梅前州举行地方选举 默茨执政联盟面临压力German State Elections Underway as Coalition Pressure Mounts on Merz

德国首都柏林与东北部农业州梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州于9月20日早间开放投票站。这两个州传统上被视为偏向左翼的选区，本次地方选举共涵盖约380万名选民。投票于当地时间早8点开始，并将持续至晚6点，首批出口民调预计于格林尼治标准时间16点左右公布。

Polling stations opened early on September 20 across the German capital of Berlin and the northeastern rural state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Traditionally viewed as left-leaning regions, the two state elections encompass a combined electorate of approximately 3.8 million eligible voters. Ballot boxes opened at 8:00 a.m. local time and are scheduled to close at 6:00 p.m., with the initial exit poll projections expected around 16:00 GMT.

70岁的总理弗里德里希·默茨正面临执政联盟内部的政策分歧与民调下滑。默茨政府在与中左翼执政伙伴社会民主党（SPD）推进既定的经济及社会福利改革过程中遭遇阻力。两周前德国选择党（AfD）在萨克森-安哈尔特州获得近44%选票后，执政联盟的选情压力进一步蔓延至本次两州选举。

The 70-year-old Chancellor Friedrich Merz faces mounting strain from governing coalition disputes and low popularity ratings. Merz's administration has encountered difficulties pushing through promised economic and social welfare reforms alongside its centre-left coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD). Following the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) surge to nearly 44% of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks prior, the ruling coalition now confronts the regional fallout across both voting states.

在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州，现任社民党州长曼努埃拉·施韦西希正与德国选择党首席候选人、前电台主持人莱夫-埃里克·霍尔姆展开对决。民调显示双方选情胶着，选择党支持率在36%至37%左右，社民党则在33%至37%之间。52岁的施韦西希将自己定位为阻击极右翼的关键人物，以此争取反选择党阵营的选票。与此同时，总理默茨所在的基民盟在当地民调支持率仅约6%，面临可能创下州选举历史最差战绩并跌破5%议会准入门槛的风险。

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, incumbent Social Democratic State Premier Manuela Schwesig faces a close contest against the Alternative for Germany's (AfD) top candidate, former radio presenter Leif-Erik Holm. Polls place both parties in a tight race, with the AfD tracking between 36% and 37% and the SPD polling between 33% and 37%. The 52-year-old Schwesig has campaigned as a key bulwark against the far-right in an effort to consolidate anti-AfD votes. Meanwhile, Chancellor Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) hovers at roughly 6% in local surveys, leaving the party at risk of recording its worst-ever state election result and falling below the 5% threshold needed to stay in the state parliament.

该州整体经济保持相对平稳，自2020年以来经通胀调整后的经济增长率为5%，略高于德国全国4.6%的平均水平。尽管当地7.8%的失业率略高于全国平均线，且47,750欧元的税前年薪中位数比全国水平低约6,000欧元，但规模化农业等支柱产业持续带来稳定支撑。该州典型农业企业的土地控制面积达到280至283公顷，远高于全国65公顷的平均规模。

The regional vote takes place against a relatively stable local economic backdrop, with the state economy expanding 5% in inflation-adjusted terms since 2020, slightly outpacing Germany's national growth of 4.6%. Although the state's 7.8% unemployment rate sits modestly above the national average and its median gross annual salary of €47,750 is roughly €6,000 below the German benchmark, large-scale agriculture provides operational efficiency. Agricultural companies in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania manage an average of 280 to 283 hectares of land, compared with the national average of 65 hectares.

在德国首都柏林，埃利夫·埃拉尔普领衔的社会主义左翼党在选前主要民调中微弱领先，与基民盟围绕第一大党位置展开激烈争夺。左翼党凭借应对住房危机的强硬政策承诺，在年轻选民群体中获得了较高支持，并力争在赢得第一后推选埃拉尔普出任柏林市长。然而，左翼党在竞选过程中也面临围绕反犹言论的争议。

In Berlin, the socialist Left Party led by lead candidate Elif Eralp has held a narrow lead in major pre-election polls, setting up a tight contest against the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) for the top spot. The Left party has attracted significant backing among younger voters with promises of decisive measures to resolve the city's housing shortage, aiming to secure the Berlin mayoralty for Eralp if it finishes first, despite facing campaign scrutiny over antisemitic rhetoric.

本次选举同时凸显了柏林外籍居民的投票权争议。柏林390万总人口中，约四分之一、即近97.6万成年人因不具备德国国籍而无法在州级选举中投票，这一无投票权居民人数创下历史新高并较2011年翻倍。柏林米特区绿党区长斯特凡妮·雷姆林格组织了一场涉及15个投票点的象征性投票，旨在引起外界对非公民投票权的关注。尽管去年柏林有约3.9万人入籍，但由于默茨政府取消了三年快速入籍路径，整体入籍与政治代表权门槛依然引发了在德外籍纳税群体的广泛讨论。

The city-state election has also drawn focus to the franchise gap among Berlin's large international population. Out of 3.9 million residents, approximately one-quarter—around 976,000 adults—are ineligible to vote in state elections because they lack German citizenship, a figure that has doubled since 2011. Stefanie Remlinger, the Green Party mayor of Berlin's Mitte district, organized a symbolic vote across 15 polling stations to raise awareness of political representation for foreign residents. Although roughly 39,000 people were naturalized in Berlin in 2025, Chancellor Merz's reversal of the three-year fast-track citizenship path has left many foreign tax-paying residents voicing frustration over access to the ballot box.

在经历萨克森-安哈尔特州的选举失利以及最新两州选情压力后，德国政界出现了关于默茨可能在任期中途被替换的讨论。德国新闻媒体《每日新闻》报道指出，尽管部分潜在挑战者仍在犹豫，但有关“更换总理”的传闻持续发酵。默茨已公开表态将继续任职，但他同时面临民意支持率低迷与党内凝聚力受挫的双重挑战。

Following the election setback in Saxony-Anhalt and mounting pressure from the Berlin and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania votes, German political circles have engaged in speculation over whether Friedrich Merz could be replaced as chancellor mid-term. German news site Tagesschau noted that while potential challengers are still hesitating, talk of a potential chancellor swap has continued to circulate. Merz has publicly stated that he will carry on in office, even as he confronts poor public approval ratings and internal party unease.

为应对潜在的政治震荡，默茨召集了基民盟高层危机应对会议，并清空随后数天的既定日程，取消原定前往纽约出席联合国大会的行程。基民盟内部重要政治力量近期释放出维稳立场。八位基民盟籍州长发表联合声明强调，德国当前比以往任何时候都更需要稳定，而非就人事变动展开讨论，不过这些州长在声明中并未对默茨个人直接表达背书。

In response to potential aftershocks from the regional elections, Merz scheduled a crisis meeting with senior CDU leadership and cleared his calendar for the coming days, canceling a planned trip to attend the United Nations General Assembly. Key party figures have pushed for institutional calm. Eight CDU state premiers issued a joint declaration stating that Germany needs stability now more than ever rather than personnel discussions, though the regional leaders stopped short of issuing an explicit personal endorsement for Merz.