美联储加息25个基点至3.75%-4% 沃什坚持强硬抗通胀立场Fed Raises Benchmark Rate to 3.75%-4% as Warsh Hardens Inflation Stance

美联储联邦公开市场委员会在周三的货币政策会议上一致决定加息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间提升至3.75%至4.00%。这是美联储自2023年7月以来的首次加息行动。在凯文·沃什出任美联储主席不足四个月的时间里，决策层迅速开启紧缩行动，旨在促使通胀率更及时地回归2%的既定目标。

The Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously on Wednesday to lift interest rates by 25 basis points, establishing a target range of 3.75% to 4.00% in its first rate increase since July 2023. Under Kevin Warsh, who led the US central bank into its first monetary tightening in three years less than four months into his tenure as Fed Chair, the policy statement indicated that the hike is intended to help inflation make a timelier return toward the central bank's 2 percent objective.

市场此前已普遍预期到此次政策上调。推动决策层采取行动的直接动力来自近期一系列走高的高通胀数据，以及债券市场持续承受的定价压力。与此同时，中东地区对伊朗的军事冲突推高了燃料价格，加剧了美国的物价上涨压力，促使货币政策制定者通过提高借贷成本来遏制价格预期的扩散。

Financial markets had widely anticipated the decision following a series of hot inflation reports and mounting pressure across the bond market. Policymakers took action in response to rising prices that were partly driven by the war on Iran pushing up fuel costs, prompting the central bank to raise borrowing benchmarks to counter persistent inflation risks across the economy.

美联储主席凯文·沃什在决议公布后的记者会上阐述了强硬的政策立场，明确指出美国通胀水平处于过高区间的时间太长。沃什表示，决策层必须确信潜在通胀正在清晰且以足够的速度向政策目标回落，而货币政策委员会认定目前这一标准尚未得到满足。对于遏制物价上涨所需的最终利率高度，沃什保持了开放态度，未对未来借贷成本的上升幅度设定明确上限。

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh detailed an aggressive policy stance during his post-meeting press conference, emphasizing that inflation across the United States has remained too high for too long. Warsh stated that policymakers must be confident underlying price pressures are moving toward the central bank's objective clearly and at sufficient speed, noting that the Federal Open Market Committee concluded this standard has not yet been met. He also left open-ended how much higher borrowing benchmarks may need to climb to effectively curb persistent inflation across the economy.

最新发布的利率预测点阵图反映出决策团队内部广泛的紧缩倾向。在提供预测的18位美联储官员中，有16位预计今年内还需要至少再加息一次，其中4位官员认为年内实施两次加息是可能的选项。这表明多数决策成员倾向于在后续会议上继续推进限制性货币政策，以确保物价增幅能够更及时地回到既定的2%目标。

The central bank's updated dot-plot projections reinforced this hawkish trajectory among rate-setters. Out of 18 participating Fed officials, 16 indicated that they anticipate another interest rate hike before the end of the year, with four policymakers viewing two additional rate increases as a distinct possibility. The broad consensus across the committee demonstrates that most officials favor sustaining a tighter policy stance in upcoming meetings to ensure inflation returns toward the official 2 percent target.

美联储此番加息决策迅速引来美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的强烈不满。在周三对媒体发表的讲话中，特朗普直接指责美联储管理委员会“非常敌对、非常政治化”，并公开表示货币政策制定者正在做错误的事情。尽管新任美联储主席凯文·沃什上任不足四个月，但其主导的紧缩举措明显违背了特朗普希望降低借贷成本的明确愿望。

The Federal Reserve's monetary tightening drew immediate and sharp pushback from US President Donald Trump. Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Trump accused the Federal Reserve board of being very hostile and very political, asserting that the central bank's leadership was doing the wrong thing. Although Kevin Warsh had taken over as Fed Chair less than four months earlier, the decision to raise borrowing costs directly defied Trump's preference for lower benchmark rates across the economy.

除了对委员会立场提出指责，特朗普还在社交媒体平台上公开发文阐述其对利率政策的看法。他主张美国的基准利率应当设定在1%或更低水平，理由是美国拥有全球最好的信用评级。面对白宫持续施加的降息要求，美联储依然在通胀压力下选择开启加息周期，使得市场交易员高度关注沃什领导下的美联储与特朗普行政当局之间的政策互动关系。

Beyond his direct remarks on Wednesday, Trump took to social media to advocate for sharply lower borrowing costs, arguing that interest rates in the United States should be 1 percent or less because the country holds the best credit rating in the world. As the White House continues to publicly push for cheaper credit despite mounting inflation pressures, financial market participants and traders are closely monitoring the working relationship between Warsh and the Trump administration.

美联储决议公布后，美国国债收益率在周四早盘全线小幅回落。截至美国东部时间凌晨4点55分，基准10年期国债收益率下跌2个基点至4.984%，30年期国债收益率下跌1个基点至5.334%，对利率更为敏感的2年期国债收益率则下跌2个基点至4.705%。爱德华兹资产管理公司首席投资官鲍勃·爱德华兹表示，债券市场最剧烈的波动可能已经过去，投资者迎来了锁定高收益率的机会；他分析认为，若美联储年内再次加息，更可能发生在12月会议，因为美联储不太可能在临近中期选举的10月会议上宣布调整利率，以避免显得具有政治倾向。

Following the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, US Treasury yields moved slightly lower across the curve during early morning trading on Thursday. By 4:55 a.m. ET, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield had declined 2 basis points to 4.984%, the 30-year yield was down 1 basis point to 5.334%, and the policy-sensitive 2-year note fell 2 basis points to 4.705%. Bob Edwards, chief investment officer at Edwards Asset Management, noted in an emailed statement that the bond market's most volatile shifts are likely now in the rearview mirror, presenting a window for investors to lock in elevated returns. Edwards added that if policymakers decide on another rate hike this year, it would most likely occur at the December meeting because the central bank is unlikely to adjust rates in October immediately ahead of the midterm elections.

在海外资产市场方面，汇丰银行等香港主要商业银行在美联储加息后选择维持最优惠利率不变，使香港楼市暂时免受直接冲击，但业内人士指出后续紧缩仍可能带来压力。仲量联行香港主席曾焕平指出，若借贷成本继续攀升，不仅将增加购房者的按揭负担与开发商的融资成本，还可能促使开发商加快推盘并削弱拿地意愿。按揭转介机构星之谷按揭行政总裁庄锦辉表示，作为多数房贷基准的一个月港元拆息已逼近2.8%至2.9%，若美联储年底前再度加息，香港银行可能将最优惠利率上调最多25个基点并叫停固定利率房贷方案。

Across international asset markets, major Hong Kong commercial lenders including HSBC held their prime lending rates steady, providing temporary relief to the local real estate sector while maintaining underlying financial pressure. Joseph Tsang, chairman of JLL Hong Kong, stated that although the immediate impact is muted, further borrowing cost increases would weigh heavily on homebuyers, escalate developers' financing expenses, and reduce developer appetite for land acquisitions. Raymond Chong, chief executive officer at StarPro Agency, observed that the one-month Hong Kong interbank offered rate has moved near 2.8 to 2.9 percent, warning that a subsequent Fed rate hike before year-end could force local banks to raise prime rates by up to a quarter point and withdraw fixed-rate mortgage products.