德国萨克森-安哈尔特州举行议会选举 极右翼选择党民调领先冲击单独执政Far-Right AfD Seeks Historic State Victory as Saxony-Anhalt Holds Regional Election

萨克森-安哈尔特州的投票站于当地时间早晨8时（格林威治标准时间6时）向选民开放，投票持续至傍晚18时截止，计票工作在投票结束后随即展开。州选举官员计划自当天中午开始发布首批投票率估算数据，初步预测结果预计将在投票站关闭后公布。该州约有170万名年满18岁的合格选民登记在册，分布于包括拥有约24.4万人口的州首府马格德堡在内的各个选区。

Polling stations across Saxony-Anhalt opened to voters at 8:00 a.m. local time (0600 GMT) and are scheduled to close at 6:00 p.m., with ballot counting set to begin immediately afterward. State election officials are scheduled to release initial voter turnout estimates starting at noon, with initial projections expected shortly after voting concludes. The eastern German state contains approximately 1.7 million eligible voters aged 18 and older, voting across regional districts including the state capital of Magdeburg, a city of around 244,000 residents.

在此次投票前夕，民调数据显示德国选择党以40%至41%的支持率保持数月领先，总理默茨所属的基民盟则以23%的支持率位居第二。对于2013年作为反欧盟抗议团体创立、此后立场显著向右转的选择党而言，这一支持率优势使该党在州级选举中处于前所未有的领先位置，各界正密切关注其能否将民调优势转化为实际执政权力。

Surveys conducted ahead of the vote placed the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at between 40% and 41%, maintaining a steady lead for months over Chancellor Friedrich Merz's Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which trailed at 23%. For the AfD, founded in 2013 primarily as an anti-European Union protest movement before shifting further to the right, this polling gap marks a significant electoral advantage as observers track whether the party can convert its survey numbers into governing power.

在竞选纲领方面，德国选择党提出了“百日即刻行动计划”，承诺对没有合法居留权利但因人道主义原因暂缓离境的外国公民实施“从第一分钟起驱逐”，并推动被称为“再移民与驱逐攻势”的相关政策。该党的主张还包括要求难民参与工作、削减对支持民主的非政府组织的公共资助、禁止公立学校悬挂彩虹旗以及停止批准新的风力发电场项目。

The Alternative for Germany centered its campaign on a "100-day immediate action plan" that promises to begin deportations "from minute one" for foreign nationals lacking legal residency rights who remain under humanitarian relief. The party's platform outlines a "remigration and deportation offensive," proposes mandatory work requirements for refugees, seeks to cut public funding for pro-democracy non-governmental organizations, bans LGBTQ rainbow flags in public schools, and halts new wind farm construction projects across the state.

德国国内情报部门下属的萨克森-安哈尔特州宪法保卫局自2023年起将该党州分支定性为“确定的右翼极端主义组织”，指出其核心立场渗透着族群多元主义种族意识形态，并在多份声明中展现出排斥特定出身与宗教群体的意图。该党领军候选人乌尔里希·西格蒙德否认这些指控，并反称情报机构已被执政者用作针对反对派的政治工具。

Saxony-Anhalt's state Office for the Protection of the Constitution has classified the regional AfD branch as a "confirmed far-right extremist" organization since 2023, asserting that its official statements promote an ethnoculturally homogeneous population and violate constitutional principles through racist ideology. Lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund pushed back against the designation in pre-election remarks, stating that the domestic intelligence service monitors the political opposition and that an AfD administration would consider abolishing or restructuring the agency.

在德国的比例代表制选举体系下，单一政党单独执政通常面临较高门槛。但选情分析显示，若萨克森-安哈尔特州内多个较小党派未能在本次投票中跨过5%的议会准入门槛，有效选票基数将会缩减，这可能使获得逾40%选民支持的德国选择党直接夺得州议会的绝对多数席位，从而绕过主流政党构筑的联合执政隔离壁垒。

Securing an outright majority remains a formidable hurdle within Germany's proportional electoral system, which is structured to encourage multiparty coalitions and prevent single-party dominance. However, electoral analyses indicate that if several smaller parties fail to clear the 5% threshold required to enter the state parliament, the distribution of seats could shift decisively. Such an outcome could allow the Alternative for Germany, polling above 40%, to secure an absolute majority of parliamentary seats and bypass the established cordon sanitaire maintained by mainstream competitors.

若选择党未能取得过半数席位，现任州长斯文·舒尔策领导的基民盟将面临艰难的联合组阁谈判。基民盟此前与另外两个较小政党联合执政，但在维持拒绝与选择党合作的“防火墙”原则同时，基民盟对与左翼党合作同样持明确排斥态度，这可能迫使其尝试组建由社民党与绿党参与、但缺乏议会多数的少数派政府，而该方案在实际运作中将不得不寻求左翼党的默许与容忍。

If the AfD falls short of an outright majority, incumbent state premier Sven Schulze of the CDU will face complex coalition negotiations. While Schulze hopes to rebuild a multiparty governing alliance, the CDU's strict refusal to cooperate with either the AfD or the socialist Left Party complicates potential paths to power. A possible three-way coalition with the Social Democrats and Greens would likely lack a parliamentary majority on its own, leaving a minority administration dependent on informal toleration from the Left Party to pass legislation.

在联邦层面，此次选举对基民盟籍总理弗里德里希·默茨构成严峻挑战。默茨自2025年5月就任总理前曾设定将选择党支持率减半的目标，并试图通过采取更严格的移民与安全政策来削弱该党吸引力。然而，基民盟民调数据走低，其内部对默茨领导力的批评随之升温。卡塞尔大学政治学者沃尔夫冈·施罗德指出，若选择党在萨克森-安哈尔特州获胜，针对默茨的批评将更加激烈。此外，默茨计划推动的法定养老金制度改革也在该州竞选期间招致党内成员批评，但他强调由于人口结构变化，现行养老金体系已无法维持。

At the federal level, the Saxony-Anhalt vote poses a direct challenge for Chancellor Friedrich Merz's conservative-led coalition. Before taking office in May 2025, Merz pledged to halve support for the AfD by implementing stricter migration controls and tougher security policies. However, with the CDU losing ground in surveys, internal dissatisfaction has grown. Political scientist Wolfgang Schroeder of the University of Kassel noted that an AfD victory would amplify criticism against Merz and intensify scrutiny of his leadership. The chancellor also faces internal party pushback over planned reforms to the old-age pension system, which he insists must proceed because demographic shifts make the current structure unsustainable.

除了联邦执政压力，选择党已将萨克森-安哈尔特州视为迈向2029年联邦大选夺取全国政权的关键跳板。安全专家与主流政界还对选择党若执政可能带来的国家安全风险提出警告。图林根州社民党籍内政部长格奥尔格·迈尔向德国媒体RND表示，若选择党成员出任萨克森-安哈尔特州内政部长并接触反间谍等敏感安全数据，将对德国构成显著的安全风险。默茨在接受媒体采访时则呼吁保持冷静，坚称地方州议会选举的结果不会动摇联邦政府的稳定性。

For the AfD, the regional contest serves as a stepping stone toward its broader ambition of securing federal power in the 2029 national election. Meanwhile, security officials have raised concerns over the potential risks if an AfD administration gains access to sensitive state intelligence. Thuringia's interior minister Georg Maier told German media network RND that an AfD-led interior ministry would present a severe security risk for Germany. In response to mounting federal tension, Merz dismissed suggestions of a government crisis, telling the Mitteldeutsche Zeitung that a regional state parliament result would not endanger the stability of his federal coalition.