CNN民调：民主党中期选举领先10个百分点 特朗普支持率降至32%CNN Poll: Democrats Lead by 10 Points in Midterm Race as Trump Approval Hits 32%

在全美登记选民国会投票意向方面，民主党建立的领先基础来自于其核心选民群体的高幅度支持。民调数据显示，民主党在黑人选民中保持高达70个百分点的支持率优势，在拉美裔选民中领先40个百分点。此外，该党在女性选民中获得21个百分点的领先，在年轻成年人群体中的领先优势达到31个百分点。在两党争夺的关键独立选民中，民主党也以15个百分点的优势领先共和党。

Democrats' 10-point national advantage in congressional preference across registered voters is anchored by substantial leads within the party's traditional demographic pillars. According to the CNN/SSRS poll, Democrats lead Republicans by 70 percentage points among Black voters and by 40 percentage points among Latino voters. The party also holds a 21-point advantage among female voters and a 31-point lead among younger adults, while establishing a 15-point edge among political independents.

投票参与热情和政治诉求同样强化了这一民调倾向。在表示自己投票意愿极其强烈的选民群体中，民主党的领先优势达到18个百分点。约六成选民表示今年的中期选举选票旨在对特朗普传达态度，其中表达反对立场的选民比例以2比1的优势超过表达支持的选民。面对将经济列为首要关注事项的登记选民，民主党以46%对37%领先共和党，并且在整体评估中被视为更有能力应对经济与生活成本问题的政党。

The polling gap extends into voter motivation and overarching political messaging. Among registered voters who describe themselves as extremely motivated to participate in the midterm election, Democrats hold an 18-point advantage over Republicans. Roughly 6 in 10 voters indicate their ballot will serve to send a message regarding President Trump, with those expressing opposition outnumbering supporters by a 2-to-1 margin. Furthermore, among voters identifying the economy as their primary concern, Democrats lead 46% to 37% and are viewed as better positioned to address the economy and cost-of-living issues.

民调数据显示，特朗普当前的执政支持率降至32%，刷新了此前的历史最低纪录，比2018年中期选举前夕低7个百分点；其中仅有13%的选民表示强烈认可其执政表现，这一数字较2018年同期下滑17个百分点。与2018年秋季多数民众看好国家走势与经济表现的情形相比，当前公众情绪呈现显著转变，对现状的悲观评价直接拉低了特朗普的执政满意度。

According to the survey, Trump's overall job approval rating fell to a new record low of 32%, one point below his previous low and seven points behind his standing just before the 2018 midterms. The share of voters who strongly approve of his presidency dropped to 13%, representing a 17-point decline compared with the 2018 cycle. While a 55% majority felt the nation was doing well and 69% viewed economic conditions positively in autumn 2018, deep public dissatisfaction with national conditions now weighs directly against the president's political standing.

除了整体民调下滑，特朗普在共和党内部及传统核心选民群体中的支持基础也出现松动。他在共和党人中的支持率降至74%，低于2025年2月的88%。在45岁以下的共和党人及倾向共和党的选民中，接近四成对特朗普表示不认可，该年轻群体在经济、通胀和执政优先级上的评分比年长共和党人低约20个百分点。此外，无大学学历的白人选民对特朗普的支持率已降至45%的负区间，低于该任期初期的63%。

The survey also points to eroding support across Trump's traditional Republican base. His approval rating among self-identified Republicans dropped to 74%, down from 88% in February 2025. Nearly 4 in 10 Republican-aligned adults under age 45 express disapproval of Trump, rating his performance roughly 20 points lower than older Republicans on the economy, inflation, and policy priorities. Furthermore, Trump's approval among non-college-educated White voters—long a pillar of his coalition—fell underwater to 45%, down from 63% earlier in his term.

生活成本与整体经济问题成为今年中期选举选民最关心的核心议题。CNN与SSRS的最新调查显示，仅有26%的受访选民认为当前经济状况良好，较2018年秋季的69%出现大幅下滑。在被问及白宫对具体经济事务的处理时，特朗普在经济管理上的整体支持率仅为27%，在控制通胀方面的支持率更跌至23%，双双低于其本就处于低位的32%总支持率。此外，近七成受访者明确指出，特朗普在试图降低物价方面的作为还远远不够。

Cost-of-living challenges and broader economic worries have emerged as the central priorities driving voters ahead of the midterms. According to the CNN/SSRS poll, only 26% of registered voters describe economic conditions in the United States as good, marking a steep drop from the 69% measured in the autumn of 2018. When evaluating specific economic management, respondents rate President Trump lower than his overall standing, giving him a 27% approval rating on the economy and just 23% on handling inflation. Furthermore, nearly 7 in 10 Americans state that Trump has not gone far enough in trying to reduce prices.

公众对现行经济政策的负面归因进一步加剧了执政党的选举阻力。民调显示，三分之二的美国人认为特朗普的政策直接恶化了国家经济条件，这其中包括了大约三分之一的共和党选民。在经济关切之外，政府腐败（19%）与美国民主现状（18%）是另外两个获得超过一成选民提及的首要议题。然而选民对制度前景同样抱有疑虑，约三成选民认为两党在处理经济和生活成本问题上都无法做好，约四成选民认为没有一个政党能够妥善应对腐败问题。

Widespread skepticism over current economic policies presents an active challenge to Republican congressional candidates. Two-thirds of Americans, including roughly one-third of self-identified Republicans, say Trump's policies have made economic conditions worse. Beyond the economy, government corruption (19%) and the state of American democracy (18%) are the only other priorities cited by more than 10% of voters as their leading concern. Yet public skepticism extends across the political spectrum: roughly 3 in 10 voters say neither party would do a good job managing the economy or cost of living, while approximately 4 in 10 believe neither party would handle corruption better.

尽管民主党在全美普选意向上建立起显著领先，但国会席位的实际重组仍受到选区地理与政治格局的现实约束。CNN民调分析指出，十年中期的选区重划以及大量位于亲共和党选区的选战竞争，可能对民主党的最终议席增幅构成限制。如果在全美普选票中最终出现10个百分点的民主党优势，这意味着相较于2024年众议院全美普选投票结果，选情将出现大约13个百分点的整体转向。

Even as Democrats build a sizable national preference margin, structural limits across congressional geography present hurdles to translating raw votes into net seat gains. Mid-decade redistricting and a significant slate of contested races situated directly in GOP-friendly territory could limit the overall scale of Democratic pickups, according to the CNN/SSRS poll analysis. If a 10-point Democratic advantage were to materialize in the national popular vote on Election Day, it would represent an estimated 13-point swing from the national popular vote cast for House races in 2024.

不过，即便出现如此大幅度的选票摆动，也未必能够直接转化为民主党在深红地区的席位斩获。今年许多激烈竞争的国会选区竞选，发生在此前特朗普以两位数优势取胜的共和党优势区域。纽约时报在民调分析中同样提及，尽管选区版图整体对共和党有利，但其选民基础内部的松动仍让该党在捍卫参众两院控制权上面临多点防守的挑战。

However, even a shift of that magnitude may not guarantee Democratic seat conversions in traditionally safe Republican strongholds. Many of this cycle's most competitive campaigns are unfolding in districts that President Trump carried by double-digit margins during the 2024 election. As analysis highlighted by The New York Times points out, while the broader electoral map structurally favors the GOP, internal fissures within its core base leave the party vulnerable as it defends its majorities in both the House and the Senate.