中东冲突加剧引发供应担忧 布伦特原油突破100美元Brent Oil Surges Past $100 as Middle East Escalation Threatens Gulf Supply

在早盘交易中，国际原油基准价格延续上升势头。截至美国东部时间周四清晨5点03分，11月交割的布伦特原油期货价格上涨0.95%，报每桶102.17美元，稍早曾触及101.94美元的高点。美国10月交割的西得克萨斯中质原油期货价格上涨1.2%，报每桶97.20美元，盘中最高触及97.79美元，创下自5月以来的最高水平。

Crude oil futures extended their upward momentum during early trading on Thursday. As of 5:03 a.m. Eastern Time, international benchmark Brent crude futures for November delivery rose 0.95% to $102.17 a barrel, having touched a high of $101.94 earlier in the session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures for October delivery advanced 1.2% to $97.20 per barrel after peaking at $97.79, marking the highest level for the contract since May.

原油市场在不到一周的时间内累计涨幅已超过20%。布伦特原油在周三自7月以来首次冲破101美元关口，完全扭转了此前的跌势。随着霍尔木兹海峡周边航运风险增加，能源供应链收紧，原油期货不仅收复了此前数周的失地，更将基准价位推升至数月高位。

The recent price surge represents a jump of more than 20 percent in less than a week. Brent crude crossed the $101 threshold on Wednesday for the first time since July, erasing prior summertime declines. As transit volume disruptions and security threats in the Strait of Hormuz tighten physical energy supplies, market prices have rapidly recovered previous losses and settled well above price levels recorded in early June.

美伊两国在关键的霍尔木兹海峡的交火加剧了对航运供应的冲击。美国中央司令部表示，美军在周二摧毁了五艘伊朗原油油轮，以回应美军战舰遭遇的袭击企图；该战舰成功规避了伊朗的打击，未造成美方人员伤亡。伊朗方面则在周三声称打击了十余艘试图穿越海峡的船只，并宣布扩大水道周边的禁航区，同时还声称袭击了位于约旦的一处美军基地作为回应。

Military exchanges between the United States and Iran around the vital Strait of Hormuz have intensified pressure on commercial shipping lanes. According to U.S. Central Command, American forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers on Tuesday following attempted strikes against a U.S. warship, which successfully evaded the attack without incurring personnel casualties. In response, Tehran claimed on Wednesday that it hit more than a dozen vessels attempting to transit the strait, announced an expanded no-go zone outside the corridor, and reported strikes on an American military base in Jordan.

自2月底美以对伊朗发起战事以来，德黑兰方面封锁了霍尔木兹海峡，而华盛顿方面则对伊朗港口实施反封锁。当前美伊冲突已进入第七个月。《华尔街日报》报道称，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的白宫高级顾问已在私下向他提出，这场对抗可能会持续至其任期结束。高盛全球大宗商品研究联席主管丹·斯特鲁伊文在CNBC节目中表示，随着航运遭袭加剧，油价面临飙升至每桶120美元上方的风险。

The naval confrontation forms part of a broader conflict that began in late February when the U.S. and Israel initiated operations against Iran, leading Tehran to choke off the strait while Washington pressed a counter-blockade of Iranian ports. With hostilities now in their seventh month, top White House advisers have privately told U.S. President Donald Trump that the confrontation could drag on through the remainder of his term, according to the Wall Street Journal. Goldman Sachs co-head of global commodities research Daan Struyven told CNBC that escalating attacks on vessels heighten the risk of crude oil climbing above $120 a barrel.

在霍尔木兹海峡受阻的情况下，红海曼德海峡周边通道的安全风险成为能源市场的另一大焦点。也门胡塞武装对沙特阿拉伯境内的石油设施发动了多次袭击，以此作为向曼德海峡沿线展开军事攻势的一部分。相关袭击导致沙特能源基础设施受损，并造成70余人受伤，加剧了对该地区原油外运能力的担忧。

With the Strait of Hormuz shut down, maritime security risks around the Red Sea's Bab al-Mandab chokepoint have emerged as a critical vulnerability for international energy supplies. Yemen's Houthi rebels have carried out strikes targeting oil facilities inside Saudi Arabia as part of a military offensive directed toward the strategic transit corridor. The rebel campaign has disrupted Saudi energy infrastructure operations and left more than 70 people wounded.

沙特阿拉伯与胡塞武装的交火周四仍在继续，胡塞武装报告称在沙特新一轮打击行动中遭遇了约40次袭击。由于霍尔木兹海峡通道受限，经由红海及曼德海峡的外运航线对沙特原油出口具有关键替代作用，但该区域持续的军事冲突正对这一备用航道的通畅运作施加双重压力，使得中东整体原油供应面临更多不确定性。

Hostilities between Saudi forces and Houthi fighters continued on Thursday, with the rebels reporting approximately 40 strikes during a fresh wave of Saudi military attacks. The Red Sea waterway has served as an increasingly important export route for Saudi crude following disruptions in the Gulf, but ongoing clashes across the southwestern corridor are placing heavy operational pressure on the alternative shipping route, intensifying supply bottlenecks across regional oil networks.

原油价格飙升重新引发了金融市场对全球通胀再度抬头的担忧。在美国，柴油价格已触及每加仑近6美元的历史高位，而华盛顿方面正准备发布关键的消费者价格指数（CPI）数据，该数据预计将对美联储下周是否决定加息产生影响。与此同时，市场普遍预计欧洲央行将在周四提高借贷成本，全球央行收紧货币政策的预期显著升温。

Surging crude oil prices have renewed financial market concerns over a potential rebound in global inflation. In the United States, diesel prices have reached a record high of nearly $6 a gallon, coming as Washington prepares to release key consumer price index data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision next week. Meanwhile, expectations have grown that the European Central Bank will lift borrowing costs on Thursday, reinforcing broader forecasts of policy tightening across major central banks.

利率上行风险使全球股票市场普遍承压。华尔街三大主要股指全面走低，首尔、香港、悉尼、上海、新加坡、台北、惠灵顿、曼谷、雅加达和马尼拉等亚洲主要股指同样明显下跌；欧洲多数股市亦遭遇抛售，法兰克福股市下跌，而东京、孟买、伦敦和巴黎股市则小幅上涨。

Higher interest rate expectations have placed global equity markets under broad pressure. All three major Wall Street indexes dropped into the red, alongside widespread declines across Asian exchanges including Seoul, Hong Kong, Sydney, Shanghai, Singapore, Taipei, Wellington, Bangkok, Jakarta, and Manila. While Frankfurt dipped and broader European shares retreated, indexes in Tokyo, Mumbai, London, and Paris managed modest gains.