巴西全国大选开启首轮投票 卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗选情胶着Brazilians Head to Polls as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Face Off in Tight Race

在10月4日启动的第一轮全国投票中，巴西合资格成年选民依法前往各投票站行使强制投票权。总统选票上共有12位候选人角逐，包括中间派精神病学家奥古斯托·库里、戈亚斯州前州长罗纳尔多·卡亚多、来自“使命党”的雷南·桑托斯以及米纳斯吉拉斯州前州长罗梅乌·泽马等，但除领跑者外的其他候选人支持率均处于4%或更低的个位数水平。

As first-round voting opened across the country on October 4, eligible Brazilian adults turned out under compulsory voting laws to cast ballots in an election featuring 12 presidential candidates. The wider field includes centrist psychiatrist Augusto Cury, former Goiás governor Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos of the Missão party, and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema. However, none of the trailing contenders have gained broad traction, with poll trackers recording their support at 4% or lower.

巴西民调机构Datafolha的最新调查显示，卢拉首轮支持率为42%，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗为38%，抽样误差为正负两个百分点。由于选情胶着且两位领跑者均难以在首轮获得“50%加一票”的绝对多数门槛，选举专家普遍预计两人将在首轮胜出并进入10月25日的第二轮决选。同时，选情汇总机构与选举策略师指出，过往多届大选中民调曾存在低估保守派选票的情况，使决选走向保持高度不确定性。

The latest survey by major polling institute Datafolha shows Lula leading the first round at 42% against 38% for Flávio Bolsonaro, within a two-point margin of error. With neither frontrunner projected to clear the absolute majority threshold of 50% plus one vote required for an immediate victory, analysts expect the two rivals to advance to a runoff on October 25. Electoral analysts also note that polling aggregators reflect a narrow contest, while historical voting trends that occasionally underestimated conservative turnout leave the outcome unresolved.

现年80岁的卢拉正寻求其政治生涯中的第四个非连续总统任期。他曾于2003年至2010年担任两届巴西总统，后因涉及受贿案被判入狱服刑580天。2021年，巴西联邦最高法院撤销了对其贪腐指控的有罪判决并恢复其政治权利，卢拉随后在2022年大选中击败时任总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗，于2023年重新就任国家元首。

The 80-year-old Lula is campaigning for a fourth non-consecutive term as president. He governed Brazil for two terms from 2003 to 2010 before serving 580 days in prison on corruption and bribery convictions. In 2021, Brazil's Supreme Court annulled those convictions and restored his political rights, clearing the path for his narrow victory over then-president Jair Bolsonaro in the 2022 election and his subsequent return to office in 2023.

面对选民对其高龄的关切，卢拉在竞选期间通过社交媒体发布健身视频并维持高密度的行程安排，力图展现充沛体能。在投票前夕的周六，卢拉在聚集全国五分之一选民的圣保罗州结束其竞选造势活动，他在巡游圣保罗市期间发表演讲，承诺击败极右翼势力，并呼吁选民支持其延续现行治理路线。

To address voter concerns regarding his age, Lula posted workout videos online and maintained a demanding travel schedule throughout the campaign. On Saturday, Lula concluded his campaign in the economic powerhouse state of São Paulo, which represents a fifth of the country's electorate, touring the state capital and addressing supporters with a vow to defeat the far right while rallying undecided voters ahead of Sunday's vote.

45岁的右翼联邦参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗正致力于维系围绕其家族建立的保守派政治阵营。71岁的前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因在2022年败选后企图发动政变而被判处27年监禁，目前因反复出现的健康问题在人道主义软禁中服刑，不仅被剥夺竞选公职的资格，还受到禁止在社交媒体发帖或公开发表言论的司法限制。尽管年初民调显示右翼选民曾倾向于圣保罗州州长塔西西奥·德弗雷塔斯或前第一夫人米歇尔·博索纳罗参选，但老博索纳罗最终选择推举其长子代表该阵营参战。

Right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, 45, is seeking to maintain the conservative political movement built around his family. His father, 71-year-old former President Jair Bolsonaro, is barred from running for office while serving a 27-year sentence under humanitarian house arrest due to recurring health issues following his conviction for plotting a coup after losing the 2022 election. The elder Bolsonaro faces strict court restrictions barring him from posting on social media or making public statements. Although early polls suggested conservative voters favored alternative contenders such as São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas or former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, the former president selected his eldest son to lead the ticket.

弗拉维奥在正式启动总统竞选活动时，播放了一段由人工智能生成的其父亲数字形象为其背书的视频。巴西联邦最高法院就使用深度伪造技术展开追问时，老博索纳罗的律师辩称当事人未曾授权使用该视频，但外界分析认为弗拉维奥依然获得了其父亲的核心支持。在选战收尾阶段，弗拉维奥在圣巴巴拉-杜埃斯特和圣若昂-德梅里蒂等地举行车队巡游与集会动员支持者，将自己定位为能够接替其被软禁父亲并挑战现政权的右翼人选。

Flávio's campaign launched with controversy when he screened a video featuring an AI-generated avatar of his father endorsing his presidential bid. When questioned by Brazil's Supreme Court regarding the deepfake, lawyers for the elder Bolsonaro denied he had authorized its use, though analysts noted Flávio retains the political backing of his father's base. Leading up to the vote, Flávio rallied supporters through motorcades and campaign events in locations such as Santa Bárbara d'Oeste and São João de Meriti, presenting his candidacy as the primary conservative alternative capable of confronting the incumbent administration.

两位领跑者的对外政策路线呈现出截然不同的方向，关乎巴西在拉美地缘格局中的定位。随着哥伦比亚、秘鲁和智利等国在近期选举中转向保守派，加之美方在委内瑞拉采取行动，巴西成为该地区少数仍由左翼执政的国家之一。80岁的卢拉坚持多极化外交政策，并指责美国总统唐纳德·特朗普干预巴西大选以支持保守派阵营。

The two leading candidates present contrasting diplomatic visions that carry major stakes for Brazil's positioning across Latin America. Following electoral shifts toward conservative leaders in Colombia, Peru, and Chile, alongside US actions involving Venezuela, Brazil remains among the few nations in the region governed by the left. Incumbent President Lula has maintained a commitment to multipolar foreign relations while accusing US President Donald Trump of seeking to meddle in Brazil's election in favor of the conservative challenger.

相比之下，45岁的弗拉维奥·博索纳罗频繁表达对特朗普政府的赞赏与看齐。他承诺将促使巴西加入由美国主导的反毒品卡特尔联盟，该多国行动此前在区域内实施了军事行动并实施了致死数十人的空袭。美洲季刊主编布赖恩·温特向媒体分析指出，此次投票不仅决定巴西是否向与特朗普结盟的保守阵营靠拢，也构成了关于拉美未来地缘走向的两种竞争愿景。

By contrast, Flávio Bolsonaro regularly praises the Trump administration and advocates a closer security partnership with Washington. Flávio has pledged to bring Brazil into the US-led regional anti-drug cartel coalition, which has conducted military operations and airstrikes that killed dozens across Latin America. Americas Quarterly editor-in-chief Brian Winter noted that the race presents competing visions for the region, determining whether its largest economy will tilt toward a US-aligned conservative bloc or maintain Lula's foreign policy trajectory.