巴西举行总统大选首轮投票 卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗民调胶着Brazil Holds Presidential Election as Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro Face Off

在10月4日举行的巴西大选中，选民除投票选举总统外，还将选出国会议员以及各州州长。巴西采用电子投票系统，官方统计结果通常在投票结束后数小时内即可揭晓。根据选举规则，若没有任何总统或州长候选人在第一轮投票中赢得超过50%的有效选票，得票最多的前两名候选人将进入定于10月25日举行的第二轮决选。

Alongside the presidential race on October 4, Brazilian voters are casting ballots for federal and state legislative seats as well as state governorships. Brazil relies on electronic voting machines that typically tabulate final tallies within hours of polls closing. Under electoral rules, if no contender for the presidency or a governorship secures more than 50% of valid votes during the initial ballot, the top two vote-getters will face each other in a second-round runoff on October 25.

选前各项民调显示，代表左翼阵营的现任总统卢拉与代表自由党的参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在多名候选人参与的竞选中难分高下。本次选举的胜者不仅将决定未来数年巴西的公共开支与环境政策方向，还拥有提名最高法院11名大法官中4位的权力，这一人事任免预计将对该国最高司法机构的权力格局产生持久影响。

Opinion polls indicate a tight contest between incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Liberal Party Senator Flávio Bolsonaro across a crowded field. The winner will shape Brazil's national path regarding economic spending, environmental governance, and diplomatic ties with the United States. Furthermore, the incoming head of state will appoint four of the 11 Supreme Court justices, securing broad influence over the judiciary for years ahead.

作为雅伊尔·博索纳罗五个子女中的长子，45岁的参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗在政坛被称作“一号儿子”。前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗因在2022年大选败选后策划政变，包括警方指控的暗杀卢拉计划，被判处27年3个月监禁并在狱中服刑。弗拉维奥公开承诺一旦就任巴西最高职位，将立即对父亲予以总统特赦。这一承诺使得前总统的司法命运成为此次选战的核心争论焦点，并引发外界对博索纳罗阵营重新掌权可能冲击巴西民主制度的讨论。

As the eldest of Jair Bolsonaro's five children, 45-year-old Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, known in Brazilian political circles as 'Son No. 1,' has placed his father's legacy at the center of his presidential bid. Former president Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving a sentence of 27 years and three months following his conviction for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 election loss, a scheme that police said included an assassination plot against Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. The younger Bolsonaro has pledged to grant his father an immediate presidential pardon upon taking office, turning the legal fate of the family patriarch into a central campaign issue and prompting debate over the institutional consequences for Brazil's democracy.

竞选活动中对家族政治资本的运用也引发了法律争议。2026年7月弗拉维奥竞选活动启动仪式上，现场大屏幕播放了一段由人工智能生成的视频，展示狱中雅伊尔·博索纳罗为儿子背书的画面。由于服刑人员依法被禁止发表公开声明，巴西最高法院随即要求就该AI克隆视频作出解释，前总统随后否认曾授权使用其肖像和声音制作该深度伪造视频。尽管民调显示略多于半数的巴西选民认为老博索纳罗应服满刑期，但弗拉维奥依然依靠家族品牌稳固保守派基本盘，并在选战中维持与执政阵营并驾齐驱的声势。

The campaign's reliance on family ties generated sharp legal scrutiny during its official launch in July 2026, when an AI-generated deepfake video showing the imprisoned former president endorsing his son was screened on stage. Because the elder Bolsonaro is barred from making public declarations while serving his prison term, Brazil's Supreme Court demanded an official explanation regarding the appearance of the digital clone, prompting Jair Bolsonaro to deny authorizing the use of his voice and image. While academic researchers note that slightly more than half of the population believes the former president should serve his complete sentence, Flávio Bolsonaro has relied on the family name to anchor his core conservative base and remain in a statistical dead heat against Lula.

在竞选策略上，弗拉维奥·博索纳罗自称是“更为温和的博索纳罗”，并试图在继承家族右翼政治遗产与争取中间选民之间维持微妙平衡。伯明翰大学巴西事务专家克里斯·里昂指出，老博索纳罗过去扮演的是冲击现有体制的局外人形象，而弗拉维奥则更愿意展现主流政治人物的面貌，倾向于妥协并懂得如何构建政治联盟。哥本哈根大学拉美专家格奥尔格·瓦尔特·温克分析称，弗拉维奥在公开表态中用词较为收敛，避免发表针对特定群体的攻击性言论，对媒体的态度也不像其父亲那样具有对抗性。巴黎政治学院学者科内尔·韦耶斯则注意到，弗拉维奥近月来已在多项竞选宣传材料中撤下了父亲的姓名。

On the campaign trail, Flávio Bolsonaro describes himself as 'a more moderate Bolsonaro,' attempting a delicate balancing act between carrying his father's conservative banner and appealing to undecided voters. Chris Lyon, a Brazil specialist at the University of Birmingham, observed that while Jair Bolsonaro functioned as an angry outsider challenging the established political order, Flávio has presented himself as a mainstream politician who favors compromise and understands how to build legislative coalitions. Georg Walter Wink, a Latin America researcher at the University of Copenhagen, noted that Flávio employs a far less aggressive tone, avoiding misogynistic or homophobic remarks as well as hostile confrontations with the press. Corneel Weyers of Sciences Po also observed that the candidate removed his father's name from several campaign promotional materials in recent months.

尽管弗拉维奥在风格上展现节制，但在核心政策立场上与父亲保持高度一致，包括对气候变化由人类活动引起的结论提出质疑，并支持放宽巴西民众购买枪支的限制。伦敦国王学院巴西研究所所长安德雷萨·阿鲁斯卡指出，弗拉维奥必须依靠家族政治品牌来确立参选合法性，在巴西高度极化的政治环境中，他无法真正与父亲脱离干系，否则将面临失去保守派基本盘的风险。与此同时，两派阵营在巴西社会激发出高度对立的情绪，巴拉那联邦大学政治学者法比奥·瓦斯孔塞洛斯表示，自2010年代中期的危机以来巴西政治极化持续处于高位，使得总统候选人难以获得过去几十年常见的高支持率。

Despite adopting a more restrained persona, Flávio maintains close ideological alignment with his father's movement, having questioned human responsibility for climate change and endorsed looser gun-ownership regulations for Brazilian citizens. Andreza Aruska, director of the Brazil Institute at King's College London, stated that Flávio relies on the family brand to legitimize his candidacy and cannot afford to fully distance himself from the patriarch without alienating his core conservative base. This tactical balancing occurs in an intensely divided electorate where both political camps draw passionate loyalty and fierce resistance. Fábio Vasconcellos, a political scientist at the Federal University of Paraná, noted that persistent political polarization since the mid-2010s crisis has made it exceptionally difficult for any Brazilian president to reach the elevated approval ratings seen in earlier decades.

在经济与安全领域，两位候选人提出了截然不同的政策路径。面对经济增速放缓，卢拉主张通过公共开支拉动增长；弗拉维奥·博索纳罗则认为庞大的国家债务拖累了发展步伐，其高级竞选顾问承诺借鉴阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱的做法，通过大幅削减政府开支来减轻债务。在打击犯罪方面，弗拉维奥支持强硬路线，并提议与美军展开联合行动；卢拉则倾向于打击黑帮幕后资助者，同时对外部势力介入巴西本国安全事务持怀疑态度。与此同时，弗拉维奥支持与美国特朗普政府建立更紧密的同盟关系，其支持者在集会中频繁展示美国国旗。

Economic and security platforms present voters with stark policy alternatives. As Brazil's economic growth slows, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva maintains that public spending drives national development, whereas Flávio Bolsonaro argues that massive sovereign debt restrains the economy. A senior campaign adviser to Flávio has pledged to cut debt by drastically slashing state spending along the lines of Argentine President Javier Milei. On crime, Flávio favors a hardline posture and has suggested pursuing joint work with the United States military. Lula favors security operations targeting the financial backers of criminal gangs while expressing skepticism toward foreign influence over domestic security policies. Flávio also promises closer alignment with the Trump administration, with American flags regularly appearing at his campaign rallies.

反腐败议题同样是选民关注的重点。近期警方与媒体调查揭露了一名因行贿入狱的前银行家与最高法院大法官及多位高级政界人士之间涉嫌存在不当关联。弗拉维奥本人曾接受该银行家的资金，正因此面临涉嫌洗钱的司法调查，他对此项指控予以否认。此外，弗拉维奥还在上月因一部歌颂其父亲、由美国右翼演员吉姆·卡维泽主演且已被无限期推迟上映的传记电影《黑马》陷入涉嫌贪腐与洗钱调查。卢拉曾在2018年因腐败指控入狱，尽管最高法院在2021年以程序问题撤销定罪，但这一经历依然是巴西政坛的长期争论焦点。

Corruption concerns remain central to voter decisions across both political camps. Recent media and police investigations uncovered improper ties between a jailed former banker known for bribery, Supreme Court justices, and prominent politicians. Flávio took money from the banker and faces an ongoing money laundering inquiry, which he denies. Flávio also came under scrutiny last month over alleged corruption and money laundering tied to funding for "Dark Horse," an indefinitely postponed biopic glorifying his father that stars right-wing American actor Jim Caviezel. Lula's own past imprisonment on corruption charges in 2018, which the Supreme Court annulled in 2021 on procedural grounds, remains another enduring point of contention.