波黑举行多级大选 族群分歧与地缘博弈主导选情Bosnia Holds General Election as Ethnic Divides and Geopolitics Shape Vote

2026年10月4日早间，波斯尼亚和黑塞哥维那各地的投票站正式向约340万名选民开放。根据中央选举委员会的安排，全国共有75个政党和4名独立候选人登记角逐包括三人集体主席团、国家议会众议院42个席位，以及波黑联邦、塞族共和国和10个州级行政区在内的共14个政府机构代表职位。投票工作计划持续至当地时间晚上7点结束。

Polling stations opened across Bosnia and Herzegovina on the morning of October 4, 2026, welcoming roughly 3.4 million eligible citizens to cast ballots across multiple levels of government. According to the Central Election Commission, 75 registered political parties and four independent candidates competed for seats on the three-member collective presidency, 42 mandates in the national House of Representatives, and offices across 14 separate administrations covering both entities and ten cantons. Voting operations were scheduled to run until polls closed at 7:00 p.m. local time.

为防范过往出现的选举舞弊问题，本届大选首次全面启用了选民生物识别指纹核验设备以及选票数字化扫描仪。虽然选民依然使用纸质选票完成划票，但扫描设备旨在加快计票流程并提升透明度。据美联社等现场观察员记录，在早间投票开启阶段，部分投票点因新型数字化设备的调试与操作故障，出现了未能按时开放投票的现象。

This general election marked the debut of digital anti-fraud technologies, featuring biometric devices for voter fingerprint verification and electronic scanners to process ballots. Although citizens continued to mark physical paper ballots, the scanners were introduced to verify voter identity accurately and expedite ballot tabulation. However, reporters on the ground noted that technical malfunctions with the new electronic equipment delayed the opening of voting at several polling locations during the early morning hours.

在主要由塞族人构成的塞族共和国，前总统米洛拉德·多迪克依然是主导选情的核心人物。尽管多迪克因违抗监督1995年和平协议的国际高级代表的决定而被定罪，并被判处六年内不得担任公职，未出现在选票名单上，但他仍通过其领导的独立社会民主人士联盟持续活跃于公共政治舞台。分析人士德拉甘·布尔萨奇指出，多迪克在整个竞选活动中依然主导局面，其媒体曝光度覆盖了塞族共和国及波黑全境。

In the Serb-majority Republika Srpska, former president Milorad Dodik remained the dominant political figure throughout the campaign despite being legally barred from holding public office. Dodik received a six-year ban after being convicted of defying decisions issued by the international high representative overseeing the 1995 Dayton peace accords. Although his name did not appear on any ballot for the first time in nearly three decades, Dodik maintained firm command of the ruling Alliance of Independent Social Democrats. Political analyst Dragan Bursac observed that Dodik continued to direct the political discourse across both the entity and the broader Bosnian media landscape.

多迪克近期刚结束在莫斯科与俄罗斯总统普京的会晤返回波黑。在塞族共和国行政中心巴尼亚卢卡举行的独立社民党最后一场竞选集会上，俄罗斯驻波黑大使伊戈尔·哈拉布霍夫也出席了活动。多迪克在集会上公开宣称波黑“已死”，并称其为“一个不可能存在且毫无意义的国家”。在这场选举中，多迪克全力支持其盟友萨沃·米尼奇角逐塞族共和国总统职位，同时该党候选人热利卡·茨维亚诺维奇也寻求连任国家三方主席团的塞族代表席位。

Having recently returned from a diplomatic visit to Moscow where he met with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dodik addressed supporters at his party's final campaign rally in Banja Luka, an event attended by Russian Ambassador Igor Khalabukov. Dodik declared before the crowd that Bosnia and Herzegovina 'is dead' and described it as an impossible and senseless country. For the current election cycle, Dodik actively backed his ally Savo Minic for the presidency of Republika Srpska, while incumbent Serb presidency member Zeljka Cvijanovic campaigned under the party's banner to secure a second mandate in the national collective presidency.

在波黑联邦内部，波族与克族政党在本次大选中提出了截然不同的政治诉求。代表波族选民的主要政党集中呼吁维护国家统一并加强中央国家机构权力，以应对塞族方面的分离主义动向。现任波族主席团成员、来自社会民主党的丹尼斯·贝契罗维奇承诺继续推动波黑加入欧盟和北约的进程；而曾任主席团成员的民主行动党领导人巴基尔·伊泽特贝戈维奇在2022年败选后，也在此次选举中再度出马角逐波族代表席位。

Within the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosniak and Croat political factions advanced sharply contrasting agendas in the general election. Leading Bosniak parties campaigned heavily on defending national unity and strengthening central state institutions to counteract Serb secessionist tendencies. Incumbent Bosniak presidency member Denis Becirovic of the Social Democratic Party pledged to revitalize the country's bids for European Union and NATO membership, while Bakir Izetbegovic, leader of the center-right Party of Democratic Action, launched a bid for a third term on the collective presidency following his 2022 defeat to Becirovic.

克族政党则将核心议题聚焦于现行代表权机制与选举法改革。以波黑克罗地亚民主共同体为代表的党派主张修改选举法，要求重构三方主席团克族成员的选举办法，以防止在人口占优势的波族选民投票影响下产生克族代表。达丽雅娜·菲利波维奇代表该党参选，同民主阵线的斯拉文·科瓦切维奇以及五个克族政党联盟推选的兹登科·卢契奇展开竞争。由于现行制度允许波黑联邦全体选民在波族与克族候选人之间二选一投票，有关选举规则的修改要求也牵涉到对战后宪法框架的调整争议。

Croat political parties centered their campaigns on longstanding demands for electoral reform and community representation within the tripartite presidency. Coalitions aligned with the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina sought amendments to the election law to prevent numerically superior Bosniak voters from determining the Croat presidency member. Darijana Filipovic ran under the HDZ BiH banner, facing competition from Democratic Front candidate Slaven Kovacevic and coalition-backed Zdenko Lucic. Because the current constitutional setup permits all Federation voters to choose between the Bosniak or Croat ballot, proposals to overhaul the mechanism remain a persistent source of friction across the governing entity.

波黑于2022年12月正式获得欧盟候选国地位，但原定启动的正式入盟谈判面临延宕。布鲁塞尔方面明确要求，波黑推进加入欧盟谈判的前提是实质性落实多项结构性改革，特别是加强司法监督机制和通过强有力的反腐败法律。然而，由两大实体各自主导政党构成的治理格局长期陷入政治僵局，削弱了国家中央政府的决策效率，导致入盟所需的法律与司法改革推进缓慢。

Bosnia and Herzegovina secured European Union candidate status in December 2022, but scheduled accession negotiations have faced repeated delays. Officials in Brussels have tied the formal start of membership talks to the prior implementation of key structural reforms, specifically demanding stronger judicial oversight and the enactment of comprehensive anti-corruption laws. However, persistent political gridlock among the dominant ethnic parties across both semi-autonomous entities has frequently stalled decision-making by the weak central government, slowing the legislative momentum required for EU integration.

除了内部制度改革受阻，波黑的外部地缘政治环境也牵动着局势发展。独立社会民主人士联盟等主张塞族共和国分离倾向的政党长期同莫斯科保持紧密合作，引发外界对俄罗斯在该地区影响力的关注，俄罗斯也被指责拖慢波黑融入欧盟的进程。在经济增长放缓与战后遗留体制的双重压力下，选民对多年未变的阵营对立表达出厌倦，但大选博弈依然深陷于亲欧一体化与外部地缘联系的拉扯之中。

Beyond internal institutional hurdles, competing external geopolitical interests continue to shape the country's trajectory. Parties advocating secession for Republika Srpska, notably the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, maintain close cooperation with Moscow, drawing western scrutiny over Russian influence and accusations of efforts to slow Bosnia's path toward the EU. Against the backdrop of an economic slowdown, many voters have voiced frustration with decades of ethnic polarization, yet the general election remains deeply tangled between aspirations for European integration and external geopolitical alignments.