日本央行维持基准利率在1.25% 首度认定达成2%通胀目标Bank of Japan Holds Rate at 1.25%, Declares 2% Inflation Goal Reached

日本央行政策委员会在10月30日的货币政策会议上，以8比1的票数表决通过维持政策利率在1.25%的决定。这一基准借贷成本仍处于1995年以来的最高水平。审议委员高田创在决议中投出唯一的反对票，他明确建议日本央行应立即将政策利率进一步上调至1.5%。

The Bank of Japan's Policy Board voted 8-1 on October 30 to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.25%, keeping borrowing costs at their highest level since 1995. Board member Hajime Takata cast the sole dissenting vote, directly advocating for the central bank to advance its policy rate upward to 1.5% at the meeting.

除维持基准利率外，日本央行发布政策评述，认定国内基础通胀率与2%的既定目标“大体一致”。这一认定调整了长期以来的官方表述——在此之前，央行对基础通胀的描述一直是“正在接近2%”。自2013年确立2%物价稳定目标以来，这是日本央行首次正式确认基础通胀水平已达标，表明决策层认为长期摆脱通缩的物价动态已在国内经济运行中确立。

Alongside the rate hold, the central bank revised its formal assessment to declare that underlying inflation in Japan is now "generally consistent" with its 2% objective. This formulation replaced the long-standing language that underlying price pressures were merely "approaching 2 percent." The statement represents the first time since establishing the 2% price target in 2013 that the central bank concluded the threshold has been reached, reflecting policymakers' judgment that inflationary dynamics have taken root after decades of deflation.

日本央行在最新的经济展望中全面上调了中期通胀预测。该行将2027财年的综合通胀率预期从先前的2.4%提升至2.6%。与此同时，衡量长期价格压力的关键指标——剔除生鲜食品和能源价格后的“核心-核心”通胀率预测，也由之前的2.6%上调至2.7%。这一连串上调体现出决策层对物价脱离通缩状态的判断正变得更加明确。

In its updated quarterly economic outlook, the Bank of Japan raised its medium-term inflation forecasts across key metrics. The central bank upgraded its projected inflation rate for fiscal year 2027 to 2.6% from the previous estimate of 2.4%. Concurrently, its forecast for "core-core" inflation, which strips out volatile fresh food and energy prices to gauge durable underlying price trends, was increased to 2.7% from 2.6%. The upward adjustments underline the board's growing assessment that price pressures are settling at levels above their baseline.

伴随通胀预测的上调，日本央行发出风险提示，警示基础通胀存在向上突破2%目标的潜在可能。该行在声明中指出，日本企业的行为模式正发生结构性转变，越来越倾向于提高员工薪资并将增加的成本传导至终端售价。央行强调，伴随企业定价与薪水调整机制趋于积极，当前存在多重潜在因素可能在未来进一步推高商品与服务价格。

Alongside the revised projections, the central bank cautioned that underlying inflation faces the risk of deviating upward beyond the 2% objective. The policy statement observed that corporate behavior has been shifting noticeably toward raising wages and lifting prices, with various economic factors threatening to drive overall costs higher. Central bank officials pointed out that as companies abandon their longstanding reluctance to pass on labor and operational expenses, this ongoing transformation in price-setting behavior creates persistent upward momentum across the economy.

日本官方最新发布的经济数据显示，国内通胀动能正在获得实质性支撑。9月份核心通胀率同比上升2.1%，超出市场预期，并录得2026年以来的最高水平。日本长期面对日元汇率偏弱和能源价格高企的局面，这些外部与输入性成本直接推高了整体物价水平。专业人士对CNBC表示，现阶段高市早苗政府推行的能源补贴政策在一定程度上压低了消费者物价指数的表面涨幅，表明潜在的价格压力可能更为显著。

Recent government data shows that inflationary momentum in Japan is receiving concrete macroeconomic backing. In September, core consumer inflation reached 2.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations and registering its highest reading of 2026. Japan has continued to grapple with a weakening yen and elevated international energy prices, both of which have placed upward pressure on headline costs. However, experts told CNBC that consumer price index readings are currently being held down by energy subsidies implemented by the Takaichi administration, indicating that underlying cost pressures could be stronger than the headline data suggests.

在薪资领域，日本8月份经通胀调整后的实际薪资同比增长1.5%，实现连续第8个月录得增长。劳动力报酬的稳步扩张为薪资驱动型通胀提供了直接佐证。日本财务大臣片山皋月本月早些时候在国会发言时表示，日本正处于转向由工资上涨所驱动的持续性通胀时期的关口。这一系列宏观数据印证了物价与薪酬之间形成的向上联动，为央行调整物价目标达成状态的判断提供了实际依据。

The inflationary trend is running alongside durable improvements in household compensation. Japan's inflation-adjusted real wages climbed 1.5% from a year earlier in August, marking an eighth consecutive month of growth and indicating the potential development of wage-driven price gains. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told parliament earlier this month that the nation was on the cusp of shifting to a period of sustained inflation driven by rising wages, underscoring official observations that price and pay dynamics are mutually reinforcing.

道富环球投资管理亚太区经济学家克里希纳·比马瓦拉普将日本央行的本次决议定性为“鹰派按兵不动”。他分析认为，日本央行预计未来将进一步加息，并对通过“薪资—物价—消费”这一自发循环达成目标抱有越来越强的信心。但比马瓦拉普同时提醒，日本目前的经济增长基本面尚不支持央行匆忙实施下一步加息行动，他预测日本第三季度国内生产总值增速可能失去动能，民间消费仍是整个经济循环中最薄弱的环节。

Krishna Bhimavarapu, APAC economist at State Street Investment Management, characterized the central bank's rate decision as a "hawkish hold." Bhimavarapu noted that the Bank of Japan foresees further rate increases ahead and is increasingly confident that its inflation objective is being achieved through a self-sustaining wage-price-consumption cycle. However, he cautioned that broader economic expansion does not currently justify rushing into the next policy move. Bhimavarapu projected that Japan's third-quarter gross domestic product growth is likely to lose momentum, emphasizing that domestic consumption remains the weakest link in the cycle.

金融市场与专业机构对紧缩周期的跟进时机形成了较为清晰的共识。在本次政策会议召开前，CNBC对16名经济学家开展的调查显示，全部受访者均预计日本央行将在今年12月或明年1月为继续上调基准利率铺平道路。针对本轮加息周期的终点，受访专家中有13人预计，到2027年年中前后，日本央行的终极政策利率水平将提升至1.75%至2%之间。

Financial analysts and forecasters have coalesced around expectations for upcoming tightening steps. Prior to the decision, a CNBC survey of 16 economists showed that every respondent anticipated the central bank will set the stage for an interest rate hike in either December 2026 or January 2027 as domestic inflation and wages advance. Regarding the end point of the tightening cycle, 13 of the 16 respondents projected that the terminal policy rate will reach between 1.75% and 2% by approximately mid-2027.