英杰华警告未来十年洪区建房超十万套 部分住宅恐面临无法投保风险Aviva Warns Over 100,000 Homes Planned in Flood Zones Risk Becoming Uninsurable
英国最大保险公司英杰华（Aviva）首席执行官阿曼达·布兰克（Amanda Blanc）警告称，按照现有的建设模式，未来十年将在洪灾区建造115,000套新房，其中部分住宅在未来可能面临无法投保的风险。布兰克在接受英国广播公司（BBC）采访时表示，英格兰正在建设一些未来可能无法获得保险的房产，鉴于洪灾风险区位置明确，各方必须审慎考虑住宅选址与防洪建设方式。 英杰华的研究显示，在2022年至2024年间建造的房屋中，有九分之一面临中至高度洪灾风险；随着极端天气加剧，2024年建造的新房到2050年将有近三分之一面临一定程度的洪灾风险，七分之一面临中高风险。与此同时，英国环境署数据显示英格兰目前约有630万处住宅和企业面临洪灾风险，到本世纪中叶可能升至约800万处。面对气候风险与住房建设目标的平衡难题，英国环境、食品与农村事务部（Defra）表示已投入创纪录资金保护近90万处房产，并强调规划提案将确保不在洪区推进建设。此外，布兰克还呼吁政府在10月28日预算案出台前避免政策“放风”，指出此前的养老金政策猜测曾引发英杰华出现正常水平30倍的异常提款潮。
Homes currently being constructed in England risk becoming uninsurable in the future due to escalating flood threats, the chief executive of insurance giant Aviva, Amanda Blanc, warned. In an interview with the BBC, Blanc said that under current construction patterns, 115,000 new homes are projected to be built in flood zones over the next decade, arguing that building in identified flood areas without adequate safeguards does not make sense. According to research by Aviva, one in nine homes built between 2022 and 2024 faces a medium-to-high risk of flooding, and nearly a third of homes built in 2024 will encounter some flood risk by 2050. The warning comes as Environment Agency data shows approximately 6.3 million homes and businesses in England are currently vulnerable to flooding, a total projected to rise to 8 million by mid-century. While the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs stated that planning proposals will prevent unsafe housebuilding to meet national housing targets alongside record flood defense spending, Blanc also urged ministers to avoid policy speculation ahead of Chancellor John Healey's 28 October Budget, citing previous pension tax rumors that triggered withdrawals at 30 times normal levels.
01新建住宅洪灾风险与保险隐忧Flood Risks and Insurance Concerns for New Builds
英杰华首席执行官阿曼达·布兰克在接受BBC播客采访时明确指出，洪灾风险呈现确切上升趋势，但在当前建设趋势下，未来十年仍将有115,000套新住宅直接落在洪灾区内。她直言这种在已知高风险区域继续建房的做法并不合理，各方必须重新审视住宅选址决策，避免为未来埋下不可投保的隐患。
Aviva Chief Executive Amanda Blanc pointed out during an interview on BBC's Big Boss Interview podcast that flooding threats are clearly escalating, yet 115,000 new homes are still projected to be constructed in flood zones over the next decade under current building patterns. She argued that proceeding with residential development in identified flood zones does not make sense, urging planners and developers to reconsider site selection to prevent properties from becoming uninsurable in the future.
除直接位于洪灾区的住宅外，布兰克指出毗邻洪灾区域的房屋建设同样需要调整思路。她强调，房屋产权人与开发商完全可以通过多样化的建筑与改造手段，增强房屋抵御水灾的能力，从而降低房产脆弱性，并呼吁在规划和建设全流程中审慎评估潜在风险。
Beyond properties situated directly within designated flood zones, Blanc noted that construction bordering these vulnerable areas also requires a revised approach. She emphasized that property owners and developers can implement various property-level resilience measures to make buildings more or less vulnerable to flood damage, calling for careful consideration throughout the planning and building process.
02气候变化与洪灾暴露度数据Climate Change and Flood Exposure Data
官方与行业评估揭示了英国房产面临的广泛洪灾暴露度。英国环境署数据显示，目前英格兰已有约630万处住宅和商业企业处于洪灾威胁之中；随着气候变化加剧，到本世纪中叶，这一受威胁房产规模预计将攀升至约800万处，相当于英格兰每四处房产中就有一处面临进水风险。
Official and industry assessments indicate a widespread increase in property vulnerability across England. According to Environment Agency figures, approximately 6.3 million homes and businesses are currently exposed to flood threats. As climate risks intensify, the agency projected that this total could climb to roughly 8 million by mid-century, which would leave one in every four properties in England facing flood risks.
英杰华的量化分析进一步显示，2022年至2024年间交付的住宅中，已有九分之一处于中度至高度洪灾风险中。展望至2050年，2024年完工的新建住宅将有近三分之一面临某种程度的洪灾威胁，其中七分之一将升至中高风险等级。气象局此前评估亦指出，在当前全球变暖水平下，类似2023至2024年英国遭遇的创纪录多雨冬季，发生频率已从原本的80年一遇骤增至20年一遇。
Quantitative research by Aviva reveals that one in nine residential properties built between 2022 and 2024 is situated in areas facing medium to high flood risk. By 2050, nearly a third of all new homes built in 2024 are projected to experience some degree of flood exposure, with one in seven facing medium-to-high threats as extreme weather events become more acute. Met Office data released earlier this year further showed that under current global warming levels, record-breaking wet winters like the stormy 2023–2024 season have shifted from once-in-80-year occurrences to once-in-20-year events.
03政府规划回应与防洪投资立场Government Planning Response and Flood Defense Investments
针对外界对新建住宅面临水患威胁的关切，英国环境、食品与农村事务部（Defra）发言人作出正式回应，表示政府已投入创纪录规模的防洪专项资金，用于保护英格兰近90万处房产免受高达数十亿英镑的潜在洪灾破坏。官方强调，政府正致力于通过强化基础设施建设与财政支持，提升现有社区和关键资产抵御极端水灾事件的韧性。
Addressing concerns over residential flood exposure, a spokesperson for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) stated that the government has committed a record amount of investment to protect nearly 900,000 properties against billions of pounds in potential flood damage. The department emphasized that these funding allocations aim to bolster defenses across England and mitigate the financial and physical risks associated with severe flooding events.
在推进住房供应方面，该部门发言人指出，官方正在推行的规划改革提案将建立起明确的预防机制，确保未来的住宅建设不会在面临洪灾风险的区域开展。官方表示，这一政策框架旨在帮助政府在不牺牲建筑安全与居民财产保障的前提下，稳步实现建设150万套新住房的既定目标，平衡房屋供给增长与长远防灾安全。
Regarding national housing delivery targets, the Defra spokesperson explained that forthcoming planning proposals will establish strict safeguards to ensure that housebuilding does not take place in areas vulnerable to flooding. The government maintained that these planning measures are designed to enable the construction of 1.5 million homes across the country without compromising on safety standards or exposing future homeowners to unmanageable environmental hazards.
04预算案前对政策猜测的警示与资本投资Pre-Budget Speculation Warnings and Capital Investment
在谈及宏观财政环境时，布兰克呼吁政府在财政大臣约翰·希利于10月28日提交首份预算案前，避免采取政策“放风”试探公众反应。作为英国主要的私人养老金提供商，英杰华指出，过去两份预算案前关于养老金税收变动的传言导致提款量激增，去年该公司客户的养老金提款规模达到了正常水平的30倍。布兰克解释称，客户一旦提取免税一次性资金后便无法重新存入，这类猜测可能对储户决策产生不利影响，因此决策者在对外释放测试性想法时必须格外审慎。
Turning to broader fiscal matters, Blanc urged ministers to refrain from policy "kite flying" ahead of Chancellor John Healey's inaugural Budget scheduled for 28 October. As a major provider of private pensions in the United Kingdom, Aviva observed that rumors regarding potential pension changes prior to the last two Budgets caused withdrawals to surge to 30 times their typical volume last year. Blanc pointed out that such speculation could leave savers with lasting regrets, because once individuals withdraw their tax-free lump sum, they cannot return the funds to their pension accounts, making it vital for policymakers to exercise caution when floating potential measures.
针对外界揣测，财政部发言人回应称财政大臣仅在正式财政活动中宣布税收政策决定，并表示由于猜测可能带来负面效应，官方不会就未来的税收调整置评。此外，布兰克表明英杰华已“备足资本”准备投资英国基础设施建设；目前该集团在英国的投资总额已超过1000亿英镑，其中350亿英镑已专项配置于医院、学校及风电场等基础设施项目。
A Treasury spokesperson responded by emphasizing that the chancellor makes tax policy determinations exclusively at formal fiscal events, declining to comment on future tax adjustments because unverified speculation can be harmful to markets and consumers. Meanwhile, Blanc highlighted that Aviva remains "ready with capital" to support infrastructure developments across the country, noting that the group already has more than £100 billion invested in the UK, including £35 billion directed into domestic infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and wind farms.
